2024 Atlantic hurricane season
| 2024 Atlantic hurricane season | |
|---|---|
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | Season not started |
| Last system dissipated | Season not started |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the next Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, 2024, about two weeks prior to the start of the season.
Seasonal forecasts[edit]
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
| Record low activity | 1 | 0† | 0† | [2] | |
| TSR | December 11, 2023 | 20 | 9 | 4 | [3] |
| CSU | April 4, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [4] |
| MFR | April 5, 2024 | 21 | 11 | N/A | [5] |
| TSR | April 8, 2024 | 23 | 11 | 5 | [6] |
| UA | April 8, 2024 | 21 | 11 | 5 | [7] |
| MU | April 12, 2024 | 26 | 11 | 5 | [8] |
| NCSU | April 16, 2024 | 15–20 | 10–12 | 3–4 | [9] |
| UPenn | April 24, 2024 | 33 | N/A | N/A | [10] |
| Actual activity | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) |
|||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[1]
Pre-season forecasts[edit]
On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[nb 1][3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea, and the current El Niño that was predicted to weaken to a neutral stage by August 2024.[3] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer.[4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFR) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity.[5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer.[6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units.[7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (+/- 6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.[10]
Storm names[edit]
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024.[12] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively.[13]
|
|
|
See also[edit]
- Weather of 2024
- Tropical cyclones in 2024
- Atlantic hurricane season
- 2024 Pacific hurricane season
- 2024 Pacific typhoon season
- 2024 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2023–24, 2024–25
Notes[edit]
- ^ Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[11]
References[edit]
- ^ a b "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. April 9, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
- ^ a b "North Atlantic Ocean Historical Tropical Cyclone Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved July 18, 2023.
- ^ a b c Wood, Nick (December 11, 2023). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
- ^ a b Klotzbach, Phil (April 4, 2024). "EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ a b "BULLETIN TECHNIQUE DES PRÉVISIONS D'ACTIVITÉ CYCLONIQUE DE LA SAISON 2024 par Météo-France Martinique". Météo-France (in French). April 5, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
- ^ a b Lea, Adam (April 8, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 8, 2024). "Forecast of the 2024 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic". Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Weaver, Sarah; Schwent, Thomas; Sadeghi, Atabak; Renken, Joe; Lupo, Tony. "Atlantic Ocean Basin Tropical Forecast 2024" (PDF). University of Missouri. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
- ^ a b Xie, Lian; Peake, Tracey (April 16, 2024). "NC State Researchers Predict Active Hurricane Season". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State News. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
- ^ a b Magubane, Nathi (April 24, 2024). "2024 Tropical Cyclone Prediction". Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: University of Pennsylvania. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
- ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on June 20, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
- ^ Gay, Nancy (April 4, 2024). "Hurricane names 2024: Here's why the list may look familiar". Tampa, Florida: WTVT. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
- ^ "Florence and Michael retired by the World Meteorological Organization". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. March 20, 2019. Retrieved January 25, 2024.