User talk:Peordemonio

Welcome[edit]

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Hi[edit]

Thanks for your work on the South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone page. I have had to comment out the Subtropical Cyclone you added as there is no proof that there is a subtropical cyclone as the references you have provided do not state the formation of a subtropical cyclone or talk about one forming. Until a source stating that a subtropical cyclone has developed we can not add it in. Thanks.Jason Rees (talk) 03:57, 14 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Hi[edit]

I'm sorry if I previously was a little rough. Of course I understand the policy. The point is that in southern South America there is no Official Institution -I mean, Meteorological Service- concerned with the study, desciption or tracking of this kind of system. Besides, statistically, subtropical cyclones in the south Atlantic are not as frequent nor as long lived as in other basins, such as the north Atlantic. For example, the systems observed in January 2009 and November 2010 were very short lived and neither two were even mentioned in the synoptic analysis of CPTEC-INPE, one -if not the most important- of the Brazil's official federal weather offices [by the way, CPTEC stads for "Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos" (Weather Forecast and Climate Study Center) and INPE stands for "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais" (National Institute of Space Research)]. Only some private meteorological services, like METSUL METEOROLOGIA, make an effort for studying these systems and -much more important- for keeping people well informed about the treat this kind of system represents, especially for the tremendous volumes of rain it use to deliver in very short time scales (typically, less than one day!!). The systems aforementioned, were not forecasted nor even described in the synoptic analysis released by CPTEC-INPE on those dates. Nevertheless, they were opportunely announced by METSUL and other private services and much later described in Gary Padgett's summary on tropical cyclones (!!!). And look at this, Gary Padgett publishes in Australia!!

So, I agree with you in which there are NO OFFICIAL statement concerning the formation of March 11, 2011 system, but almost for sure, it will never be!! And then, we have to wait for Gary Padgett to include it in his summary (!!!).

To be completely honest, if you take a careful look at CPTEC march 10 synoptic analysis, you will find the key elements of a subtropical cyclone formation and its main characteristics. This is the nearest to an "official statement". As far as I know, only METSUL properly descibed the system as subtropical, as it can be seen on satellite imagery of that day. This is precisely seen in the image I upload; you can even see an eye-like feature!! ...and the main rain band spreading over southern Rio Grande do Sul.

Even the very well documented tropical storm Anita was loosely descibed by CPTEC as a subtropical cyclone, rather than as tropical. Indeed, there never was any official statement from Brazil's Meteorological Agencies concerning the fully tropical character of Anita, and, as you know, the name "Anita" itself was given by several private meteorological agencies from southern Brazil.

Lastly, I have to mention one more thing... As you probably know, there exists a certain possibility of tropical cyclogenesis in front of the coasts of Rio de Janeiro/Espírito Santo, in south-eastern Brazil. Some of the reliable models on tropical cyclone formation continue to show the posibility of a warm core cyclone between sunday and tuesday (according to HPC, International Desks). The NRL started to study this system on thursday as Invest 90Q and TPC/NHC started to release guidance for this system. None of the brazilian meteorological agencies expressed concern about this system...

Well, so are things in this part of the world. I hope all this I told you has been useful in at least one way. See you next. Gonzalo.