Talk:Contact tracing/Archive 1

Statistics

Can someone add discussion about the actual statistics behind contact tracing?

We believe contact tracing should work with well small numbers of cases. At the same time, we know contact tracing breaks down completely above even some quite low density. Actually understanding if this effectiveness limit is 10 or 100 new cases per day in some region is quite a tough question.

It depends upon enough factors that wikipedia cannot really explain the analysis, but it's worth giving the statistical intuition that contact tracing makes sense for rare communicable infections. In particular, we should expect contact tracing to cause more infections than it prevents, due mostly to citizens and governments using contact tracing as an excuse to disregard other epidemiological advice.

Privacy Preserving Contact Tracing

There are multiple efforts towards "privacy preserving" contact tracing, which should be mentioned:

Both https://github.com/TCNCoalition/TCN and https://github.com/DP-3T/documents rotate the identity advertised over Bluetooth LE once every minute or so, using a "hash ratchet". In these designs, phones record the identities they listen to over Bluetooth LE. If you test positive, then you reveal all the identities that your own phone broadcast. There is another similar design at https://github.com/TracingWithPrivacy/paper that adds a mix network to improve location privacy.

These designs keep healthy users location data private, but there are no contact tracing schemes being discussed that provide any meaningful privacy for infected individuals.

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