User:Soosider3
All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.
The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.
Polls[edit]
Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dems | Green | Reform | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26–27 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,054 | 34% | 17% | 36% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | |
20–26 Nov 2023 | Ipsos | 1,000 | 41% | 16% | 29% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 12% | ||
29–30 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,092 | 32% | 23% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | Tie | |
6–11 Oct 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,002 | 35% | 19% | 35% | 6% | 4% | Tie | ||
2–6 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Fabians | 1,028 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1 | |
2–5 Oct 2023 | Panelbase | Sunday Times | 1,022 | 37% | 18%% | 33% | 8% | 4 | |||
4–5 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,094 | 34% | 21% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2 | ||
5–14 Sep 2023 | Opimium | Tony Blair Institute | 1,004 | 37% | 18% | 28% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 9 | |
8–13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,000 | 38% | 16% | 27% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 11 | |
2–4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | 35% | 15% | 35% | 8% | 4% | 3 | Tie | ||
15–18 Aug 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,022 | 32% | 14% | 30% | 5% | 4% | 2 | ||
3–8 Aug 2023 | YouGov | 1,086 | 36% | 15% | 32% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 4 | ||
5–6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 37% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3 | ||
1–2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,030 | 35% | 21% | 32% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3 | ||
23–28 Jun 2023 | Survation | 1,863 | 37% | 17% | 34% | 9% | 4% | 3 | |||
12–15 Jun 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 34% | 18% | 34% | 7% | 7% | Tie | ||
9–14 Jun 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,018 | 38% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 4% | 4 | ||
3–5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,466 | 37% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9 | |
15–21 May 2023 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,090 | 41% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 12 | |
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,009 | 38% | 18% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 7 | |
30 Apr – 1 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,295 | 35% | 18% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 3 | |
17–20 Apr 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,032 | 37% | 17% | 28% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 9 | |
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,001 | 40% | 17% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 8 | |
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 5 | |
28–31 Mar 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,009 | 39% | 19% | 33% | 6% | 4% | 6 | ||
28–30 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,089 | 39% | 19% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 8 | ||
27 Mar 2023 | Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party | ||||||||||
9–13 Mar 2023 | YouGov | Sky News | 1,002 | 39% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 10 | |
8–10 Mar 2023 | Survation | Diffley Partnership | 1,037 | 40% | 18% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 8 | |
7–10 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,013 | 40% | 16% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 7 | ||
2–5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 39% | 22% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 10 | |
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,017 | 38% | 19% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9 | |
15–17 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,034 | 43% | 17% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 13 | ||
15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,004 | 42% | 17% | 32% | 6% | 3% | 10 | ||
1–7 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | TBA | 42% | 18% | 29% | 6% | 13 | |||
23–26 Jan 2023 | YouGov | The Sunday Times | 1,088 | 42% | 15% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 13 | |
10–12 Jan 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,002 | 43% | 18% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 14 | ||
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,025 | 44% | 16% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 13 | ||
16–21 Dec 2022 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,048 | 43% | 19% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 13 | ||
6–9 Dec 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,090 | 43% | 14% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 14 | |
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,045 | 51% | 13% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 26 | ||
26–27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 41% | 16% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 10 | |
7–11 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | Alba Party | 1,000+ | 42% | 16% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 12 | |
5–7 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,017 | 45% | 15% | 30% | 5% | 4% | 15 | ||
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,067 | 45% | 12% | 31% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 14 | |
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 15% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 16 | ||
28–29 Sep 2022 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 44% | 15% | 31% | 6% | 4% | 13 | ||
17–19 Aug 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,133 | 44% | 20% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 21 | ||
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,010 | 47% | 19% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 24 | ||
23–28 Jun 2022 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 21 | ||
23–29 May 2022 | Ipsos | STV News | 1,000 | 44% | 19% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 21 | |
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,115 | 46% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 24 | |
5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Scotland | ||||||||||
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,009 | 42% | 21% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 18 | ||
25–31 Mar 2022 | BMG Research | The Herald | 1,012 | 42% | 19% | 26% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 16 | |
24–28 Mar 2022 | Survation | Ballot Box Scotland | 1,002 | 45% | 19% | 27% | 6% | 2% | 18 | ||
1–4 Feb 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,128 | 44% | 20% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 20 | |
15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium | Daily Record | 1,328 | 48% | 17% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 26 | |
18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,060 | 48% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 28 | |
9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,000~ | 48% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 27 | ||
22–29 Nov 2021 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,107 | 52% | 19% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 33 | |
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,005 | 48% | 20% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 26 | ||
6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 2,003 | 46% | 22% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 24 | |
3–9 Sep 2021 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,016 | 48% | 22% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 26 | ||
2–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,014 | 51% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 30 | ||
20 Aug 2021 | Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats | ||||||||||
16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,287 | 46% | 24% | 19% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 22 | |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Scottish Parliament election[1] | 47.7% | 21.9% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 25.8 |
Graphical Summary[edit]
SCOOP Polling[edit]
The Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) is the Scottish Election Study's regular opinion poll of a representative sample of Scottish voting-age adults, running since December 2021. It is worded differently from mainstream polling and uses a slightly different methodology, Yougov have advised “… the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…“
Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–25 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,200 | 24% | 12% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4 |
9–13 Jun 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,200 | 24% | 12% | 26% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2 |
10–15 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,239 | 29% | 12% | 27% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2 |
22–25 Nov 2022 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,239 | 31% | 11% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
Target Seats[edit]
This table shows the winning Party for each Constituency in Scotland, as well as the second placed party and the % lead of winning party.
Constituency | 2017 result |
2019 winning party | Turnout[a] | Votes | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Votes | Share | Majority | SNP | Con | Lab[b] | LD | Grn | Brx | Other[c] | Total | |||||
Aberdeen North | SNP | SNP | 20,205 | 54.0% | 12,670 | 59.9% | 20,205 | 7,535 | 4,939 | 2,846 | 880 | 1,008 | 37,413 | |||
Aberdeen South | Con | SNP | 20,388 | 44.7% | 3,990 | 69.4% | 20,388 | 16,398 | 3,834 | 5,018 | 45,638 | |||||
Airdrie and Shotts | SNP | SNP | 17,929 | 45.1% | 5,201 | 62.1% | 17,929 | 7,011 | 12,728 | 1,419 | 685 | 39,772 | ||||
Angus | Con | SNP | 21,216 | 49.1% | 3,795 | 67.5% | 21,216 | 17,421 | 2,051 | 2,482 | 43,170 | |||||
Argyll and Bute | SNP | SNP | 21,040 | 43.8% | 4,110 | 72.2% | 21,040 | 16,930 | 3,248 | 6,832 | 48,050 | |||||
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Con | SNP | 20,272 | 43.5% | 2,329 | 64.7% | 20,272 | 17,943 | 6,219 | 2,158 | 46,592 | |||||
Banff and Buchan | Con | Con | 21,182 | 50.1% | 4,118 | 63.4% | 17,064 | 21,182 | 1,734 | 2,280 | 42,260 | |||||
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Con | Con | 25,747 | 48.4% | 5,148 | 71.3% | 20,599 | 25,747 | 2,513 | 4,287 | 53,146 | |||||
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | LD | LD | 11,705 | 37.2% | 204 | 67% | 11,501 | 5,176 | 1,936 | 11,705 | 1,139 | 31,457 | ||||
Central Ayrshire | SNP | SNP | 21,486 | 46.2% | 5,304 | 66.7% | 21,486 | 16,182 | 6,583 | 2,283 | 46,534 | |||||
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill | Lab | SNP | 22,680 | 47.0% | 5,624 | 66.1% | 22,680 | 6,113 | 17,056 | 1,564 | 808 | 48,221 | ||||
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East | SNP | SNP | 24,158 | 52.8% | 12,976 | 69.35% | 24,158 | 7,380 | 11,182 | 2,966 | 45,686 | |||||
Dumfries and Galloway | Con | Con | 22,678 | 44.1% | 1,805 | 68.7% | 20,873 | 22,678 | 4,745 | 3,133 | 51,429 | |||||
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Con | Con | 22,611 | 46.0% | 3,781 | 71.9% | 18,830 | 22,611 | 4,172 | 3,540 | 49,153 | |||||
Dundee East | SNP | SNP | 24,361 | 53.8% | 13,375 | 68.4% | 24,361 | 10,986 | 6,045 | 3,573 | 312 | 45,277 | ||||
Dundee West | SNP | SNP | 22,355 | 53.8% | 12,259 | 64.5% | 22,355 | 5,149 | 10,096 | 2,468 | 1,271 | 240 | 41,579 | |||
Dunfermline and West Fife | SNP | SNP | 23,727 | 44.4% | 10,669 | 69.8% | 23,727 | 11,207 | 13,028 | 4,262 | 1,258 | 53,482 | ||||
East Dunbartonshire | LD | SNP | 19,672 | 37.1% | 149 | 80.3% | 19,672 | 7,455 | 4,839 | 19,523 | 916 | 626 | 53,031 | |||
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow | SNP | SNP | 26,113 | 46.4% | 13,322 | 69.4% | 26,113 | 11,961 | 12,791 | 3,760 | 1,153 | 559 | 56,337 | |||
East Lothian | Lab | SNP | 21,156 | 36.2% | 3,886 | 71.7% | 21,156 | 15,523 | 17,270 | 4,071 | 493 | 58,513 | ||||
East Renfrewshire | Con | SNP | 24,877 | 44.9% | 5,426 | 76.6% | 24,877 | 19,451 | 6,855 | 4,174 | 55,357 | |||||
Edinburgh East | SNP | SNP | 23,165 | 48.4% | 10,417 | 68.9% | 23,165 | 6,549 | 12,748 | 3,289 | 2,064 | 47,815 | ||||
Edinburgh North and Leith | SNP | SNP | 25,925 | 43.7% | 12,808 | 73.0% | 25,925 | 11,000 | 13,117 | 6,635 | 1,971 | 558 | 138 | 59,344 | ||
Edinburgh South | Lab | Lab | 23,745 | 47.7% | 11,095 | 75.1% | 12,650 | 8,161 | 23,745 | 3,819 | 1,357 | 49,732 | ||||
Edinburgh South West | SNP | SNP | 24,830 | 47.6% | 11,982 | 70.9% | 24,830 | 12,848 | 7,478 | 4,971 | 1,265 | 625 | 114 | 52,131 | ||
Edinburgh West | LD | LD | 21,766 | 39.9% | 3,769 | 75.2% | 17,997 | 9,283 | 4,460 | 21,766 | 1,027 | 54,533 | ||||
Falkirk | SNP | SNP | 29,351 | 52.5% | 14,948 | 66.1% | 29,351 | 14,403 | 6,243 | 3,990 | 1,885 | 55,872 | ||||
Glasgow Central | SNP | SNP | 19,750 | 49.2% | 6,474 | 57.9% | 19,750 | 3,698 | 13,276 | 1,952 | 1,429 | 40,105 | ||||
Glasgow East | SNP | SNP | 18,357 | 47.7% | 5,566 | 57.1% | 18,357 | 5,709 | 12,791 | 1,626 | 38,483 | |||||
Glasgow North | SNP | SNP | 16,982 | 46.9% | 5,601 | 63.3% | 16,982 | 3,806 | 11,381 | 2,394 | 1,308 | 320 | 36,191 | |||
Glasgow North East | Lab | SNP | 15,911 | 46.9% | 2,548 | 55.5% | 15,911 | 3,558 | 13,363 | 1,093 | 33,925 | |||||
Glasgow North West | SNP | SNP | 19,678 | 49.5% | 8,359 | 62.7% | 19,678 | 6,022 | 11,319 | 2,716 | 39,735 | |||||
Glasgow South | SNP | SNP | 22,829 | 48.1% | 9,005 | 66.9% | 22,829 | 6,237 | 13,824 | 2,786 | 1,251 | 516 | 47,443 | |||
Glasgow South West | SNP | SNP | 17,643 | 47.9% | 4,900 | 57.1% | 17,643 | 4,224 | 12,743 | 1,435 | 802 | 36,847 | ||||
Glenrothes | SNP | SNP | 21,234 | 51.1% | 11,757 | 63.2% | 21,234 | 6,920 | 9,477 | 2,639 | 1,276 | 41,546 | ||||
Gordon | Con | SNP | 23,885 | 42.7% | 819 | 70.2% | 23,885 | 23,066 | 3,052 | 5,913 | 55,916 | |||||
Inverclyde | SNP | SNP | 19,925 | 48.4% | 7,512 | 65.8% | 19,295 | 6,265 | 11,783 | 2,560 | 39,903 | |||||
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey | SNP | SNP | 26,247 | 47.9% | 10,440 | 70.2% | 26,247 | 15,807 | 4,123 | 5,846 | 1,709 | 1,078 | 54,810 | |||
Kilmarnock and Loudoun | SNP | SNP | 24,216 | 50.8% | 12,659 | 65.8% | 24,216 | 11,557 | 9,009 | 2,444 | 405 | 47,631 | ||||
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | Lab | SNP | 16,568 | 35.2% | 1,243 | 70.2% | 16,568 | 9,449 | 15,325 | 2,903 | 1,628 | 1,132 | 47,005 | |||
Lanark and Hamilton East | SNP | SNP | 22,243 | 41.9% | 5,187 | 63.9% | 22,243 | 17,056 | 10,736 | 3,037 | 53,072 | |||||
Linlithgow and East Falkirk | SNP | SNP | 25,551 | 44.2% | 11,226 | 64.5% | 25,551 | 14,285 | 10,517 | 4,393 | 1,184 | 1,257 | 588 | 57,775 | ||
Livingston | SNP | SNP | 25,617 | 46.9% | 13,435 | 68.3% | 25,617 | 12,182 | 11,915 | 3,457 | 1,421 | 54,592 | ||||
Midlothian | Lab | SNP | 20,033 | 41.5% | 5,705 | 66.4% | 20,033 | 10,467 | 14,328 | 3,393 | 48,221 | |||||
Moray | Con | Con | 22,112 | 45.3% | 413 | 66.3% | 21,599 | 22,112 | 2,432 | 2,269 | 413 | 48,825 | ||||
Motherwell and Wishaw | SNP | SNP | 20,622 | 46.4% | 6,268 | 68.4% | 20,622 | 7,150 | 14,354 | 1,675 | 619 | 44,420 | ||||
Na h-Eileanan an Iar | SNP | SNP | 6,531 | 45.1% | 2,438 | 68.6% | 6,531 | 3,216 | 4,093 | 637 | 14,477 | |||||
North Ayrshire and Arran | SNP | SNP | 23,376 | 48.5% | 8,521 | 65.5% | 23,376 | 14,855 | 6,702 | 2,107 | 1,114 | 48,154 | ||||
North East Fife | SNP | LD | 19,763 | 43.1% | 1,316 | 75.3% | 18,447 | 5,961 | 1,707 | 19,763 | 45,878 | |||||
Ochil and South Perthshire | Con | SNP | 26,882 | 46.5% | 4,498 | 73.4% | 26,882 | 22,384 | 4,961 | 3,204 | 382 | 57,813 | ||||
Orkney and Shetland | LD | LD | 10,381 | 44.8% | 2,507 | 67.7% | 7,874 | 2,287 | 1,550 | 10,381 | 900 | 168 | 23,160 | |||
Paisley and Renfrewshire North | SNP | SNP | 23,353 | 47.0% | 11,902 | 69.0% | 23,353 | 11,217 | 11,451 | 3,661 | 49,682 | |||||
Paisley and Renfrewshire South | SNP | SNP | 21,637 | 50.2% | 10,769 | 66.9% | 21,637 | 7,571 | 10,958 | 2,918 | 43,084 | |||||
Perth and North Perthshire | SNP | SNP | 27,362 | 50.6% | 7,550 | 74.5% | 27,362 | 19,812 | 2,471 | 3,780 | 651 | 54,076 | ||||
Ross, Skye and Lochaber | SNP | SNP | 19,263 | 48.3% | 9,443 | 73.5% | 19,263 | 6,900 | 2,448 | 9,820 | 710 | 728 | 39,869 | |||
Rutherglen and Hamilton West | Lab | SNP | 23,775 | 44.2% | 5,230 | 66.5% | 23,775 | 8,054 | 18,545 | 2,791 | 629 | 53,794 | ||||
Stirling | Con | SNP | 26,895 | 51.1% | 9,254 | 76.8% | 26,895 | 17,641 | 4,275 | 2,867 | 942 | 52,620 | ||||
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | Con | Con | 22,752 | 42.7% | 843 | 73.4% | 21,909 | 22,752 | 2,431 | 6,253 | 53,345 | |||||
West Dunbartonshire | SNP | SNP | 22,396 | 49.6% | 9,553 | 67.9% | 22,396 | 6,436 | 12,843 | 1,890 | 867 | 708 | 45,140 | |||
Total for all constituencies | Turnout | Total | ||||||||||||||
SNP | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Brx | Other | ||||||||||
Votes | ||||||||||||||||
68.1% | 1,242,380 | 692,939 | 511,838 | 263,417 | 28,122 | 13,243 | 7,122 | 2,759,061 | ||||||||
45.0% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 100.0% | |||||||||
Seats | ||||||||||||||||
48 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | |||||||||
81% | 10% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100.0% |
See also[edit]
Notes[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ "Full votes and seats by party etc - SPE21". Electoral Management Board for Scotland. 9 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2 August 2021. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
Category:Politics of Scotland Category:Opinion polling in Scotland Category:General elections in Scotland to the Parliament of the United Kingdom