User:McKnight Buchanan/sandbox

McKnight Buchanan sandbox 2021-03-25

Herb Parsons

Nvida NVDA

Mar 25, 2024 Of data center GPUs, Nvidia controls an astounding 98% of the market, according to industry research by Wells Fargo. This immense advantage comes from the company's early leg up in the technology as its inventor and a current lack of serious competition. However, nothing lasts forever in the tech sector, as the constant GPU competition has bred innovation among Nvidia's competitors -- namely Advanced Micro Devices.

Since announcing its new Instinct MI300 GPU line-up, AMD has been turning heads as a potential alternative to Nvidia's dominance. While it's impossible to predict how the AMD product line will perform in real-world data center applications, its release will ultimately put a dent in Nvidia's GPU revenue.

Despite Nvidia's marginally better performance across GPU offerings, its current pricing puts it at risk of AMD undercutting it in the data center GPU realm as well. Furthermore, as other GPU suppliers catch up in the market, the demand that Nvidia currently takes advantage of to generously price its products will likely saturate.

The significance of the data center platform Nvidia touts its data center platform as "the world's most adopted accelerated computing solution, deployed by the largest supercomputing centers and enterprises," yet the real value of this platform cannot be overstated. With cloud computing services becoming relevant to nearly every existing business, demand for Nvidia's data center GPUs resulted in $18.4 billion in revenue for the product line in 2023. This represents a 409% increase from 2022, and that revenue stream will only continue to increase as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) data processing expands in 2024. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-secret-weapon-keep-growing-143100012.html

Freezing Pipes

There are several steps to avoid freezing pipes.

1. For houses with hot water heaters in the attic, allowing hot water to trickle is extra important as the insulated cold water line to the water heater can freeze. Consider installing heat tape or heat cable on exposed water pipes to prevent freezing; however, Caution heat tape can fail. Let faucets drip: Allowing hot and cold water to trickle at night from faucets can help prevent freezing. Do not run a heavy stream of water (remember, it only takes a small drip); especially at plumbing fixtures beside outside and walls next to attics.
2. For sinks and appliances near outer walls, Open cabinet doors: This will allow more heat to reach uninsulated pipes.
3. Keep your building warm: Set your thermostat to at least 55 degrees Fahrenheit; for outsides temps below 24 degrees; additional warmth for outsides temps below 17 degrees; additional warmth for outsides temps below 10 degrees.
4. Insulate your pipes: Add insulation to pipes in unheated areas such as basements, crawl spaces, attics, and garages.
5. The freeze proof faucets are recommended as upgrades to replace conventional outdoor hose bibs faucets.
6. Disconnect outdoor hoses: Remove, drain, and store hoses used outdoors. Close the inside valves supplying outdoor hose bibs and open the outside hose bibs to allow water to drain.
7. Use heat tape: Consider installing heat tape or heat cable on exposed water pipes to prevent freezing. Caution heat tape can fail.
8. Seal air leaks: Check for and seal any air leaks around pipes to prevent cold air from entering and causing the pipes to freeze.
9. Keep the garage door closed: If there are pipes in your garage, make sure to keep the door closed to keep the area warm.
10. For well built houses, dripping cold water can prevent freezing in the underground pipes from the street to the house when temperature remain below 10 degrees for days.
11. Have a plan in place: If you are going to be away from home during cold weather, make arrangements to have someone check your home daily to ensure the heat is still on, or consider draining and shutting off the water supply to your home.
12. It is also important to locate the main water shut-off valve in your home so that you can turn off the water supply if necessary.
13. During extreme cold, the electric utility may turn OFF the electricity in a series of rotating blackouts.

Hudson

Map of Summit County showing Hudson Village, Ohio in year 1856. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/Map-of-Summit-Co.-Ohio-1856-Library-of-Congress.pdf

A sketch of a view from the Hudson Green showing buildings including hotel in about year 1860. https://www.summitmemory.org/digital/collection/hist_hudson/id/193/rec/19

Map showing Hudson Village, Ohio in year 1874. The train track ran parallel with of Ravenna road; it was offset to the north a few hundred feet of Ravenna road. https://www.summitmemory.org/digital/collection/new-maproom/id/535/rec/15

Family

Buchanan

During high school in Memphis, he was in the Army ROTC. On day while marching, it rained and all got wet. He went to the boiler room and dried his wet clothes on the boiler and steam pipes. When WW2 started, he said that he wanted to be in the Navy so that he would not be in a wet fox hole in the army. Later, Mike Buchanan was an Ensign (officer) on the USS Hanover (APA-116) during WW2. When he tried to join the Navy, he had to walk to a table with an open book showing many colors. He did not see any pattern. That was a color blind test that he failed. He could be an enlisted sailor but not an officer. His father, GrandDad, Paul Jones Buchanan, was a clerk at the Memphis office of the Illinois Gulf & Central railroad. GrandDad was involved with conversations with the US Navy base in Millington, TN about moving up to 5 troop trains a day thur Memphis.

In January 1977, a "Esterline Angus" oscilloscope camera in the Old Hickory Power House captured the image of an oscilloscope showing about 30 seconds of 9 traces during a power failure. The 9 traces were 3 groups of 3 traces. 2 groups of traces were the TVA voltages. The other group was the voltage of the Power House steam turbine driven electric generator. Apparently a camera snapped a picture of the screen of the oscilloscope. Julie was called to develop the negative film in the Medical Dark Room and to print the picture of the image of the oscilloscope. DuPont had a contract that required the electrical supplier to pay for damages (in this case, perhaps of over $1 million) resulting from a power failure. The picture showed the TVA voltages at normal values for about 9 cycles, then dropping to zero. After the TVA power failed, the Power House voltage dropped to about 15% for 6 cycles then it dropped to zero after the overload devices tripped. With no electricity the liquid Dacron, Reemay, and Typar polymers would freeze inside the polymers in the transfer piping. The polymer transfer piping inner pipe operated at over 2,500 psig. The casing pipe was heated with DowTherm or Paracymin heat transfer vapors at temperatures over 500 degrees with pressures below 100 psig. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esterline#Early_history I believe that the "Esterline Angus" camera was similar to a Tektronix C30 Oscilloscope Camera. https://www.ebay.com/itm/261163109348?hash=item3cce88cbe4:g:HhIAAMXQxVZRCa1W

Investing

ECRI businesscycle.com, WLEI & WLIg

weekly leading economic index (WLEI)

As with all weekly indices though, the data is far more volatile than monthly or quarterly indicators and the WLEI components are therefore subject to more false positives (calling recession when one does not occur.). The WLEI is heavily weighed toward financial market data, but the obvious advantage of this is that data revisions are minor and isolated to the Labor Market Composite and small portions of the Credit Market Composite.

The ECRI's WLIg is the Weekly Leading Index Growth rate. It is a measure of the rate of change of the ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (WLI). The WLI is a composite index of 10 economic indicators that are believed to lead the economy. The WLIg is calculated by taking the difference between the current value of the WLI and the value of the WLI 26.5 weeks ago. The WLIg is expressed as a percentage.

The ECRI's WLIg is a leading indicator of recessions. It has a good track record of predicting recessions, typically 6-9 months in advance. The WLIg is a valuable tool for investors and businesses who are looking to get ahead of the market. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/05/05/recessionalert-weekly-leading-index-update

The correlation between the "RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index" (WLEI) and the "S&P 500" is a complex topic with some nuances depending on the time frame and how you interpret the data.

General Correlation:

The WLEI is designed to predict future economic recessions. In theory, a decline in the WLEI should precede a decline in the S&P 500 as economic weakness translates to lower stock prices. Therefore, a negative correlation would be expected, meaning that when the WLEI goes down, the S&P 500 should also go down.

Empirical Findings:

Short-term: Studies have shown weak to moderate negative correlations between the WLEI and the S&P 500 in the short term (e.g., 1-month to 6-month periods). This suggests that the WLEI may not be a strong predictor of short-term movements in the stock market. Long-term: The correlation becomes stronger over longer time frames. For example, a study by Advisor Perspectives found a -0.77 correlation between the WLEI and the S&P 500 over a 10-year period (2009-2019). This suggests that the WLEI may be a more reliable predictor of long-term trends in the stock market. Other Considerations:

False signals: The WLEI can sometimes send false signals, leading to incorrect predictions about recessions and stock market movements. This is because the index is based on a limited number of indicators and may not capture all the complexities of the economy. Market sentiment: The S&P 500 is not solely driven by economic fundamentals and can also be influenced by investor sentiment, market psychology, and other factors. This can make it difficult to isolate the impact of the WLEI on the stock market. Conclusion:

While the "RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index" has shown some correlation with the "S&P 500," particularly over longer timeframes, it is not a perfect predictor of stock market movements. Investors should consider other factors and use diverse sources of information before making investment decisions.

RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index: https://recessionalert.com/ Advisor Perspectives: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/recommend/17028

CEO Confidence

NEW YORK, Aug. 3, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council improved to 48 in Q3 2023, up from 42 in the second quarter. The Measure was still below a reading of 50, which suggests CEOs remained cautious about what's ahead for the economy. (A reading below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses.) A total of 127 CEOs participated in the Q3 survey, which was fielded from July 10 through 24.

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council stands at 43 to start 2023, up from 32 in the final quarter of 2022. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/CEO-Confidence

CEO Survey: A Recession is the Biggest Worry in 2023

Jan 12, 2023, 08:30 ET The Conference Board survey also found that most executives don't think stronger economic growth will return anytime soon: 51 percent of CEOs worldwide—and 60 percent of US CEOs—expect a tepid year ahead, with their economies only picking back up by late 2023 or mid-2024. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ceo-survey-a-recession-is-the-biggest-worry-in-2023-301720032.html

CEO confidence weakest since 2009 - more US unemployment ahead

Another solid US jobs report, but cracks are showing Author James Knightley 6 January 2023

There are indications that a turn is imminent despite the fact that the US added 223,000 jobs and the jobless rate dropped to cycle lows. A red flag is a fifth consecutive decline in the employment of temporary workers, and weaker pay inflation may indicate a change in labor market dynamics. With business polls pointing to recession, harsher times are coming

US unemployment and CEO confidence - more pain ahead

US CEO confidence advanced 4 quarters ahead (left hand scale, lhs) US unemployment rate (right hand scale, rhs, inverted)

This week’s ISM report showed manufacturing orders contracting for four consecutive months while the Conference Board reports that CEO confidence is at its weakest since the Global Financial Crisis – even weaker than at the worst point in the pandemic. This suggests that businesses will increasingly adopt a defensive stance, which implies a greater focus on costs, including labour. So far the job loss announcements have been concentrated in the tech sector and, more under the radar, the temporary help sector, but we expect that to change over the next twelve months. https://think.ing.com/articles/us-adds-another-223000-jobs-but-cracks-are-showing/

Goldman Sachs

Last Updated: May 5, 2023 at 8:42 a.m. ET By Jamie ChisholmFollow

“One risk is that there is a recession -– or at least the market prices a higher probability of one -– perhaps if unemployment starts to rise because of bank lending tightening. Our U.S. strategists expect that under these conditions, S&P 500 earnings per share would fall to $200 and the S&P 500 would decline to 3150,” says Goldman.

Money Market

SPDR® Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL)

7 money market ETFs to buy for portfolio safety: SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond (SGOV) Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) Horizons USD Cash Maximizer ETF (HSUV.U) SPDR SSGA Ultra Short Term Bond ETF (ULST) https://money.usnews.com/investing/slideshows/best-money-market-etfs-to-buy-for-safety?slide=11

J.P. Morgan

We have never escaped a recession from this point, Feb 21, 2023

Feb 21, 2023 "Signals are pointing to trouble ahead," JPMorgan analysts led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a Monday note, positing a slew of warning signs that indicate the latest stock market rally should continue to fade before the end of March and that this quarter could "possibly" mark the stock market's high for the year.

For one, the yield curve has remained "heavily inverted"—an occurrence that has preceded every U.S. recession over the past 50 years—despite growing optimism the U.S. could skirt an economic downturn; the curve is the most inverted it's been since the 1980s, and JPMorgan cautions, "We have never escaped a recession from this point." Feb 21, 2023,11:23am EST https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2023/02/21/damage-is-done-stock-market-likely-set-for-another-plunge-as-economic-warning-signs-abound-jpmorgan-cautions/?sh=446a312d6ffb

Reduce exposure per J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, Feb. 07, 2023

J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic wrote "We think that it might end up lacking, we expect an air pocket during Q2 and Q3, with weaker activity and earnings, and consequently believe that Q1 will be an inflection point in the market," he said. "We advise to use the current strength in order to reduce exposure." Feb. 07, 2023 4:10 AM ET https://seekingalpha.com/news/3932630-goldilocks-is-drenched-jobs-report-purs-cold-water-on-soft-landing

Forture 2022 December 21

https://fortune.com/2022/12/21/what-will-happen-stock-market-next-year-goldman-sachs-jp-morgan/ Investors better buckle up and brace for impact in the first half of 2023, according to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs

BYSAGARIKA JAISINGHANI, JOHN CHENG AND BLOOMBERG December 21, 2022 at 9:51 AM CST

Investors ready to turn the page on the worst year for equities since the global financial crisis should brace for more pain heading into 2023.

That’s the blunt message from top strategists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and others, who are warning that stocks face fresh declines in the first half as corporate earnings succumb to weaker economic growth and still sky-high inflation, and central banks remain staunchly hawkish.

The second half will mark a recovery once the Federal Reserve stops hiking rates, they say — but it’s likely to be a muted rebound that will still leave stocks only moderately higher than at the end of 2022.

“The risks that stock markets grappled with this year aren’t over and that makes me nervous about the outlook, particularly in the first half,” Mislav Matejka, global equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview.

The average target of 22 strategists canvassed by Bloomberg has the S&P 500 ending next year at 4,078 points — about 7% higher than current levels. The most optimistic forecast is for a 24% increase, while the bearish view sees it slumping 11%. In Europe, a similar survey of 14 strategists projected average gains of about 5% for the Stoxx 600.

The cautious central case reflects the mountain of challenges from monetary tightening to the war in Ukraine and Europe’s energy crisis. The first of those has already helped quench a recent stock rally.

Even the better news on inflation has come with a big caveat because it hasn’t swayed central banks from their focus on getting it under control. Hawkish tones from both the Fed and the European Central Bank last week sparked sharp equity declines, and reminded investors that timing the long-awaited policy shift won’t be simple.

If that message wasn’t getting through already, the Bank of Japan hammered it home on Tuesday with a shock tweak to its bond-yield policy.

To be sure, consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will post annual declines again in 2023. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century.

JPMorgan’s team expects the S&P 500 to fall back toward the lows seen in 2022 before a pivot by the Fed fuels a second-half rebound that will leave it about 10% higher than current levels. At its worst point this year, in October, the index had slumped 25% to 3,577 points.

Top money managers are also predicting a rocky start to 2023, with gains to be skewed to the latter half, according to a Bloomberg News survey published this month.

For those taking an optimistic view, they can point to the resilience of the US economy, a slower pace of interest-rate increases and China’s reopening from strict Covid lockdowns.

But despite all that, one of the main consensus views among strategists is that stock markets aren’t yet reflecting a generally downbeat economic outlook.

Christian Mueller-Glissmann and Cecilia Mariotti at Goldman Sachs said late last month that their model implies a 39% probability of a US growth slowdown in the next 12 months, but risk assets were only pricing in an 11% chance.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — a stalwart bear who ranked No. 1 in this year’s Institutional Investor survey — sees the S&P 500 falling as much as 21% more in the first quarter. A subsequent recovery will see the index end the year at around 3,900 points, implying gains of about 2% from its Monday close.

Tied to the deteriorating economic outlook are corporate earnings. While profits showed surprising resilience to runaway inflation in 2022, they’re expected to crumble next year as the pressure on margins builds, and weaker demand creates a greater risk of stagflation.

Wilson warned this week that the slump in profits could match the one seen during the 2008 financial crisis, and that this isn’t priced into equities.

A Bank of America Corp. survey also showed fund managers expect the earnings outlook to deteriorate next year, which has left them more positive about bonds compared with equities. Their relative positioning in equities over fixed income is at its lowest since 2009.

“We do not expect this year’s constructive growth backdrop to persist in 2023,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, a strategist at JPMorgan and No. 2 in the Institutional Investor survey. He expects profits to decline 9% in the US, 10% in the euro area and 4% in Japan.

According to Goldman Sachs strategist Sharon Bell, the drop in earnings in Europe may not be as bad as during typical recessions. Where past contractions have seen profits fall about 30%, the decline may be limited to 8% this time partly because of the boost to luxury and mining companies from China’s easing of Covid lockdowns.

In Asia, Beijing’s shift away from its Covid Zero policy has also improved the outlook for equities there.

Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner remain overweight on the region’s emerging-market stocks versus developed markets as they’re “more confident that a new bull cycle is beginning.” The team at Nomura Holdings Inc., meanwhile, said recessions in the West will allow Asia to outperform as stocks there offer cheaper valuations and a better fundamental outlook.

“2023 is a year where global growth forecasts have taken quite a hit,” said Mehvish Ayub, senior investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “It’s an ongoing uncertain outlook with a lot of volatility to navigate. Equities still remain challenged.”

Wall Street Journal

By Nick Timiraos Updated December 14, 2022, 6:47 pm EST

In new economic projections released after the meeting, most Fed officials penciled in plans to raise the fed-funds rate to a peak level between 5% and 5.5% in 2023 and hold it there until some time in 2024.

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

Big Low' in Stocks Not Before Spring of 2023 - Bank of America's Hartnett

Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist of Bank of America, expects the ultimate low in stocks for this downturn to come from March to May next year. The peak in CPI, Fed hawkishness, yields, and the U.S. dollar should come not before the spring of next year, which will set the basis for a major rally.

November 4, 2022 8:49 AM EDT

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Big+Low+in+Stocks+Not+Before+Spring+Next+Year+-+Bank+of+Americas+Hartnett/20799718.html

The Fed

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2022/mm_05_31_22 May 31, 2022 The Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index (BBKLI) published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. BBLKI values below 1 historically have tended to indicate a higher chance of a recession 10 months from now. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/bbki/index

The BBKLI uses information from the largest set of underlying data, applying dynamic factor analysis (a technique that extracts common underlying factors from big datasets) to 500 monthly macroeconomic time series dating back to 1960. According to the authors, the index has "predictive power for business cycle fluctuations that is roughly on par with that of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-bets-on-strong-jobs-market-to-keep-us-out-of-recession/ar-AA15hWRG Fed bets on strong jobs market to keep U.S. out of recession Story by Jeffry Bartash • 2022-12-14

THE FED The Federal Reserve is worried a tight labor market might fuel high inflation, but it is also betting on the strong demand for labor to keep the economy out of recession.

The robust demand for labor explains why the Fed has forecast the unemployment rate to rise to a peak of just 4.6% in 2023 even as rising interest rates throttle the economy. The current jobless rate stands near a half-century low of 3.7%.

If most Americans remained employed, they’ll also likely be able to spend enough to keep the economy out of recession. Consumer spending is by far the biggest driver of economic growth.

The critical role of consumer spending underpins the Fed’s forecast that the economy will continue to expand in 2023 and avert a downturn. The central bank estimates the U.S. will grow 0.5% next year.

History is not on the side of the Fed, analysts point out.

“The expected increase in the unemployment rate between this year and next has never happened without the economy falling into a recession,” noted chief economist Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics.

See also: How the Fed’s latest interest-rate hike affects your mortgage, car loan and credit-card bill — but there’s good news for your savings

Yet the pandemic had rendered old patterns of the economy less predictable, other say. And a 4.6% jobless rate is still exceedingly low by any measure.

The flip side of a vibrant labor market, however, is upward pressure on wages as companies compete to hire and retain employees.

The intense competition for labor has caused a record number of Americans to quit one job for another — more than 4 million a month. It’s also driven up the cost of labor, the single biggest expense for most businesses, to a 40-year high of more than 5% a year.

That’s the chief reason why the Fed worries high inflation might not be so easy to tame. The bank raised its inflation forecasts for the next three years and doesn’t expect inflation to return to its 2% target until at least 2026.

If workers think inflation will stay high, Fed officials reason, it could cause them to demand ever-rising wages and trigger an inflationary debacle known as a wage-price spiral.

The nightmare scenario is why the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates. The central bank is aiming to slow the demand for goods and services enough to reduce the appetite for labor and rein in wage increases.

Instead of unemployment surging, as is normally the case, Powell and his allies at the Fed believe they can ease the labor crunch mainly by reducing a near-record number of job openings.

Companies might be content enough, the thinking goes, to retain most of their current employees and not go looking for new ones so long as the economy doesn’t crater.

Is it a doable strategy?

Many Wall Street economists are skeptical. They predict the jobless rate will top 5% next year or go even higher if the Fed stays on track to keep raising interest rates.

Several Fed officials also predicted a recession in 2023 for the first time, and most indicated the risks to the economy were still quite high, based on their forecasts for next year.

“Officials implicitly acknowledged that their relatively optimistic forecast scenario may be too good to be true,” said chief economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont Securities.

Stock market index tend to move together, but earning may lag 1 or 2 quarters

The S&P 500 index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the US, weighted by market capitalization. The S&P 500 earnings refer to the aggregate earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 index. It is common for companies to report earnings on a quarterly basis. In general, the S&P 500 index and S&P 500 earnings tend to move together over time, but there may be a lag of one or two quarters between changes in earnings and changes in the index. This can be due to the fact that the stock market may anticipate future earnings and move in advance of their actual release. It is also important to note that stock prices can be affected by a wide range of other factors such as interest rates, consumer sentiment, and geopolitical events.

Recessions, Stocks & Bonds

UBS

Fig. 1: Higher rates have pressured stocks Market implied peak fed funds rate in 2023 and S&P 500

Fig. 2: Inverted yield curve usually leads to a recession, with a lag Years from inverted yield curve until a recession

Source: Bloomberg, UBS, as of 7 March 2023. Timing is everything | by UBS Editorial Team, 08 Mar 2023 2023 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/our-approach/marketnews/article.1586730.html

Overall Customer Satisfaction Index Ranking based on 1,000 point scale J.D. Power 2022 U.S. Full-Service Investor Satisfaction Study 777 UBS 759 Vanguard 753 Charles Schwab 753 Northwestern Mutual 752 Morgan Stanley 752 Stifel 748 Fidelity 747 Merrill

https://www.jdpower.com/sites/default/files/file/2022-04/2022030%20U.S.%20Full-Service%20Investor_0.pdf

UBS Recession

Nov. 8, 2022 UBS: 3,900 (as of Nov. 8) “With UBS economists forecasting a US recession for Q2-Q4 2023, the setup for 2023 is essentially a race between easing inflation and financial conditions versus the coming hit to growth+earnings. History shows that growth and earnings continue to deteriorate into market troughs before financial conditions ease materially.“ https://www.aesinternational.com/blog/the-recent-predictions-from-barclays-ubs-and-goldman-sachs-have-investors-immediately-questioning-their-investment-strategies-next-year

August 30, 2022 On Aug. 30, global investment bank UBS increased its view on the risk of the United States entering a recession within one year to 60%. https://cointelegraph.com/news/ubs-raises-us-recession-odds-to-60-but-what-does-this-mean-for-crypto-prices

2023 S&P end of year forecasts

Dec. 4, 2022 Below is a roundup of 16 of these 2023 forecasts for the S&P 500, including highlights from the strategists’ commentary. The targets range from 3,675 to 4,500. The S&P closed on Friday at 4,071, which implies returns between -9.7% and +10.5%.

Barclays: 3,675, $210 EPS (as of Nov. 21, 2022) “We acknowledge some upside risks to our scenario analysis given post-peak inflation, strong consumer balance sheets and a resilient labor market. However, current multiples are baking in a sharp moderation in inflation and ultimately a soft landing, which we continue to believe is a low probability event.“

Societe Generale: 3,800 (as of Nov. 30) “Bearish but not as bearish as 2022 as the returns profile should be much better in 2023 as Fed hiking nears an end for this cycle. Our ‘hard soft-landing’ scenario sees EPS growth rebounding to 0% in 2023. We expect the index to trade in a wide range as we see negative profit growth in 1H23, a Fed pivot in June 2023, China re-opening in 3Q23 and a US recession in 1Q24.”

Capital Economics: 3,800 (as of Oct. 28) “We expect global economic growth to disappoint and the world to slip into a recession, resulting in more pain for global equities and corporate bonds. But we don’t anticipate a particularly prolonged downturn from here: by mid-2023 or so the worst may be behind us and risky assets could, in our view, start to rally again on a more sustained basis.“

Morgan Stanley: 3,900, $195 EPS (as of Nov. 14) “This leaves us 16% below consensus on '23 EPS in our base case and down 11% from a year-over-year growth standpoint. After what's left of this current tactical rally, we see the S&P 500 discounting the '23 earnings risk sometime in Q123 via a ~3,000-3,300 price trough. We think this occurs in advance of the eventual trough in EPS, which is typical for earnings recessions.“

UBS: 3,900, $198 EPS (as of Nov. 8) “With UBS economists forecasting a US recession for Q2-Q4 2023, the setup for 2023 is essentially a race between easing inflation and financial conditions versus the coming hit to growth+earnings. History shows that growth and earnings continue to deteriorate into market troughs before financial conditions ease materially.“

Citi: 3,900, $215 EPS (as of Nov. 18) “ Implicit in our view is that multiples tend to expand coming out of recessions as EPS in the denominator continues to fall while the market begins pricing in recovery on the other side. Part of this multiple expansion, however, has a rates connection. The monetary policy impulse to lower rates lifts multiples as the economy works its way out of the depths of recession.“

BofA: 4,000, $200 EPS (as of Nov. 28) “But there is a lot of variability here. Our bull case, 4600, is based on our Sell Side Indicator being as close to a ‘Buy’ signal as it was in prior market bottoms - Wall Street is bearish, which is bullish. Our bear case from stressing our signals yields 3000.“

Goldman Sachs: 4,000, $224 EPS (as of Nov. 21) “The performance of US stocks in 2022 was all about a painful valuation de-rating but the equity story for 2023 will be about the lack of EPS growth. Zero earnings growth will match zero appreciation in the S&P 500.“

HSBC: 4,000, $225 EPS (as of Oct. 4) “…we think valuation headwinds will persist well into 2023, and most downside in the coming months will come from slowing profitability.“

Credit Suisse: 4,050, $230 EPS (as of Oct. 3) “2023: A Year of Weak, Non-Recessionary Growth and Falling Inflation”

RBC: 4,100, $199 EPS (as of Nov. 30) “We think the path to 4,100 is likely to be a choppy one in 2023, with a potential retest of the October lows early in the year as earnings forecasts are cut, Fed policy gets closer to a transition (stocks tend to fall ahead of final cuts), and investors digest the onset of a challenging economy.“

JPMorgan: 4,200, $205 (as of Dec. 1) “…we expect market volatility to remain elevated (VIX averaging ~25) with another round of declines in equities, especially after the run-up into year-end that we have been calling for and the S&P 500 multiple approaching 20x. More precisely, in 1H23 we expect S&P 500 to re-test this year’s lows as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals. This sell-off combined with disinflation, rising unemployment, and declining corporate sentiment should be enough for the Fed to start signaling a pivot, subsequently driving an asset recovery, and pushing S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end 2023.“

Jefferies: 4,200 (as of Nov. 11) “In 2023, we expect bond markets will be probing for the Fed’s terminal rate while equity markets will be in ‘no man’s land’ with earnings still falling as growth and margins disappoint.“

BMO: 4,300, $220 EPS (as of Nov. 30) “We still expect a December S&P 500 rally even if stocks do not hit our 4,300 2022 year-end target. Unfortunately, we believe it will be difficult for stocks to finish 2023 much higher than current and anticipated levels given the ongoing tug of war between Fed messaging and market expectations.“

Wells Fargo: 4,300 to 4,500 (as of Aug. 30) “ Our single and consistent message since early 2022 has been to play defense in portfolios, which practically means making patience and quality the daily watchwords. Holding tightly to those words implies that long-term investors, in particular, can use patience to turn time potentially to an advantage. As we await an eventual economic recovery, the long-term investor can use available cash to add incrementally and in a disciplined way to the portfolio.”

Deutsche Bank: 4,500, $195 EPS (as of Nov. 28) “Equity markets are projected to move higher in the near term, plunge as the US recession hits and then recover fairly quickly. We see the S&P 500 at 4500 in the first half, down more than 25% in Q3, and back to 4500 by year end 2023.“

The range of forecasts is pretty wide this year, and so different surveys are yielding very different results. Bloomberg surveyed 17 strategists who had an average forecast of 4,009. Reuters’ poll of 41 strategists revealed a median forecast of 4,200. (CNBC publishes its survey here, but it’s not yet updated with 2023 targets.) https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2023-stock-market-outlook

2022 S&P end of year forecasts

The CNBC Market Strategist Survey is an exclusive roundup of year-end targets for the S&P 500 from top Wall Street strategists, updated quarterly, or whenever there is a material change to the forecasts.

WALL STREET’S 2022 OUTLOOK FIRM STRATEGIST 2022 S&P 500 2022 EPS IMPLIED P/E BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH Savita Subramanian 3600 $218 16.51 BARCLAYS Venu Krishna 3200 $221 14.48 BMO Brian Belski 4300 $230 18.70 CFRA Sam Stovall 4675 $228 20.50 CITI Scott Chronert 4000 $221 18.10 CREDIT SUISSE Jonathan Golub 3850 $223 17.26 DEUTSCHE BANK Binky Chadha 4200 $222 18.92 EVERCORE ISI Julian Emanuel 3975 $222 17.95 GOLDMAN SACHS David Kostin 3600 $226 15.93 JPMORGAN CHASE Dubravko Lakos-Bujas 4800 $225 21.33 MORGAN STANLEY Mike Wilson 3900 $225 17.33 OPPENHEIMER John Stoltzfus 4000 $230 17.39 RBC Lori Calvasina 3800 $216 17.59 UBS Keith Parker 4000 $228 17.54 WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE Darrell Cronk 3900 $215 18.14

Source: CNBC Research Here are the current 2022 targets from top strategists. Maximum target: 4,800 — Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan Minimum target: 3,200 — Venu Krishna, Barclays Average target: 3,987 Median Target: 3,975 https://www.cnbc.com/market-strategist-survey-cnbc/

S&P 500 declines and Bloomberg Agg Bond declines

Percentages of S&P 500 declines and Bloomberg Agg Bond declines

This chart shows the worst calendar year S&P 500 from 1973 to 2008 and Bloomberg Agg Bond declines from 1999 to 2022.

S&P 500 2008 -38% 1974 -30% 2002 -23% 2022 YTD -23% 1973 -17%

Bloomberg Agg Bond 2022 YTD -19% 1994 -3% 2013 -2% 2021 -2% 1999 -1%

Stagflation

Stagflation is coming, but with that comes a silver lining for some equities if history is any guide.

That's according to strategists at Bank of America, who see a macro backdrop that continues to reflect the dreaded economic combo of high inflation and stagnant growth.

"Inflation and stagnation was 'unanticipated in 2022...hence $35 trillion collapse in asset valuations; but relative returns in 2022 have very much mirrored asset returns in 1973/74, and the 70s remain our asset allocation analog for 2020s," said a team led by Michael Hartnett in the bank's Flow Show note on Friday.

Those preferred assets include long positions on commodities, volatility, value, resources, emerging markets, and small-caps, with short positions in stocks, bonds, growth and technology. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221104397/the-next-big-thing-is-small-get-ready-for-some-bullish-history-to-repeat-with-these-stocks-says-bofa-analysts

2022, October S&P 500 drops to 3,000 points

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/stock-funds-see-exodus-as-recession-fears-grip-investors-68463.html

Stock Funds See Exodus As Recession Fears Grip Investors JUNE 24, 2022 • SAGARIKA JAISINGHANI

Global equity funds saw their biggest outflows in nine weeks as investors piled into cash amid fears that the US economy could be headed for a recession.

About $16.8 billion exited global stock funds in the week through June 22, with US equities seeing their first outflow in seven weeks at $17.4 billion, Bank of America Corp. said, citing EPFR Global data. Bonds saw redemptions of $23.5 billion, while investors moved $10.8 billion to cash and $0.6 billion to gold, the data show.

Bank of America’s custom bull and bear indicator remains at “maximum bearish,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, which is a buy signal for stocks. For the year, investors have bought $195 billion of stocks and sold $193 billion of bonds, meaning capitulation has not been reached for equities, they said.

The US stock market has struggled to meaningfully recover after it sank into a bear market last week, and the S&P 500 Index is still on track for its worst first half since 1970 amid fears of economic slowdown. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged this week that a soft economic landing was “very challenging.”

Despite the selloff, strategists broadly believe equity markets haven’t seen a bottom. Hartnett said last week that based on past bear markets -- defined as a 20% drop for the index from recent highs -- the current one for the S&P 500 would end in October with the index at 3,000 points. That’s 21% below current levels.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson also sees the index dropping to 3,000 to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction. And Societe Generale SA’s Manish Kabra said this week that a 1970’s style shock amid stagnation with higher inflation could send the index crashing more than 30% from current levels.

By trading style, US small cap and large cap stocks led outflows. By sector, materials and energy saw the biggest redemptions. Technology, communication services and real estate had inflows.

--With assistance from Thyagaraju Adinarayan. This article was provided by Bloomberg News.

BofA's Global Financial Stress Index, Critical Stress Signal, CSS

02 July 2020 Critical stress no longer ‘Risk-off’, signal marks Fed move

The GFSI’s Critical Stress Signal (CSS) turned off as cross-asset stress declined by more than 50% from the gain prior to the signal triggering on 11-Jun-20, when 12 of GFSI’s sub-components rose by >0.5 standard deviations within a 10-day period. Since the trigger, global equites are up slightly by 1.9% (Table 1). Remarkably, the CSS reverted to picking the exact low in both US and global equities, with the Fed announcing two trading days following the CSS trigger the expansion of its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (Monday, Jun 15th), which markets celebrated. Recall that from 2013-19, the CSS triggered within 1.5% of the S&P low 6 out of 7 times, and 4 of the 6 signals marked the exact closing low, often coinciding with central bank interventions. The return of the CSS to its buy-the-dip mode after correctly forecasting the March 2020 selloff on 25-Feb-20 is a further indication that markets are reverting to their post-GFC playbook of ignoring everything but policy.

BofA says the Critical Stress Signal, CSS, has been accurate more than 60 percent of the time in predicting global stock drops.

Table 1: Critical Stress Signal history ('live' signals shown in bold) The GFSI’s Critical Stress Signal (CSS) has turned off as cross-asset stress declined by more than 50% from the gain prior to the signal triggering on 26-Nov-21, when 12 of GFSI’s sub-components rose by >0.5 standard deviations within a 10-day period BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Risk-off Signals for MSCI ACWI

- Start Date End Date return max drawdown max drawup

1 19-Apr-00 21-Jun-00 2% -5% 3%

2 8-Sep-00 21-Nov-00 -10% -11% 0%

3 9-Mar-01 27-Mar-01 -4% -10% 0%

4 12-Sep-01 26-Oct-01 3% -10% 3%

5 1-Jul-02 22-Aug-02 -3% -15% 1%

6 17-May-04 8-Jun-04 7% 0% 7%

7 27-Jul-07 19-Sep-07 4% -6% 4%

8 22-Oct-07 25-Apr-08 -6% -15% 5%

9 15-Sep-08 13-Feb-09 -32% -38% 4%

10 23-Feb-09 11-Mar-09 -3% -9% 1%

11 5-May-10 14-Jul-10 -4% -10% 0%

12 16-Mar-11 1-Apr-11 7% 0% 7%

13 12-Jul-11 4-Jan-12 -9% -19% 3%

14 10-Apr-12 26-Apr-12 2% 0% 2%

15 14-May-12 19-Jun-12 0% -6% 0%

16 24-Jun-13 10-Jul-13 5% 0% 5%

17 16-Oct-14 3-Nov-14 6% 0% 7%

18 24-Aug-15 6-Oct-15 4% -2% 5%

19 9-Feb-16 1-Mar-16 6% -1% 6%

20 13-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 -1% -4% 3%

21 8-Feb-18 26-Feb-18 6% 0% 6%

22 5-Aug-19 12-Sep-19 5% -1% 5%

23 25-Feb-20 29-Apr-20 -9% -29% 0%

24 11-Jun-20 30-Jun-20 2% 0% 4%

25 26-Nov-21 13-Dec-21 1% -1% 2%

19-Apr-00 13-Dec-21 -23% -192% 79%

12-Jul-11 13-Dec-21 17% -64% 47%

Risk off if 25% of GFSI’s 40 sub-indices rise by 0.5 in 2 weeks; Risk on if GFSI retraces by 50% of spike. The Duration of the signal is 4 to 12 weeks.

The firm’s Global Financial Stress Index is derived from indicators of volatility, solvency, ease of trading, demand for hedges and money flows. Forty market-related gauges go into the Bank of America indicator, and 10 of them surged far enough to send a so-called critical stress signal three days ago. The “risk-off” warning was the first since July 12, just before a second-half retreat in stocks got under way.

We recommend caution,” Benjamin Bowler, head of global derivatives research, and two colleagues wrote in a report two days ago. The MSCI All-Country World declined by an average of 3.8 percent in periods when the signal was in place since 2000, the report said.

PMI Falling/rising over 12-months; Real GDP growth over subsequent 12-months

When the ISM is above 50, economic contractions are highly unlikely in the subsequent 12 months.

PMI>50 Rising Arc 1 Ann. Median Returns: 13.5% Hit Ratio: 92% (11/12 cases) Time Spent: 38%

PMI>50 Falling Arc 2 Ann. Median Returns: 2.0% Hit Ratio: 50% (6/12 cases) Time Spent: 33%

PMI<50 Falling Arc 3 Ann. MedianReturns: 1.2% Hit Ratio: 55% (6/11 cases) Time Spent: 18%

PMI<50 Rising Arc 4 Ann. Median Returns: 30.9% Hit Ratio: 91% (10/11 cases) Time Spent: 10%

Since 1980, global equity returns have been subpar in arcs 2 and 3 on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI curve

---

People have a tendency to move money out of stocks after steep drops, but often fail to jump back in quickly enough when the market finally bottoms out. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/upshot/stock-market-selloffs.html Neil Irwin is a senior economics correspondent for The Upshot. He is the author of “How to Win in a Winner-Take-All-World,” a guide to navigating a career in the modern economy. @Neil_Irwin • Facebook

https://blog.wealthfront.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/041420-blog-table-1-1528x1536.png

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/recession-perf-II.png

S&P 500 and BBB bond spread to shows the probability of a recession

A study using the S&P 500 and BBB bond spread to shows the probability of a recession in the next year.

Peaking of High Yield Bonds Spread relation to S&P 500 Returns

A study reported that the average returns of the S&P 500 were -19% in the 3rd month before the Peaking of the High Yield Bonds Spread (BBB), but were +41% in the 24th month after the Peaking.

VIX

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/u-s-election-priced-as-worst-event-risk-in-vix-futures-historyMarkets U.S. Election Priced as Worst Event Risk in VIX Futures History By Michael P. Regan September 1, 2020, 5:06 PM EDT

As the U.S. stock market continues to rally to record highs, the attention of many investors is turning toward November’s elections as a source of risk.

However, hedging against that potential volatility doesn’t come cheap. In fact, it’s currently the most-expensive event risk on record based on a common way to bet on volatility known as a “butterfly trade.”

Futures tied to the Cboe Volatility Index expiring in late October closed on Tuesday at 33.5, compared with a spot VIX that closed at 26.1. Those October contracts, which are currently the second-month futures and reflect expected volatility in the month after they expire on Oct. 21, are also higher than the first-month futures expiring in September and the third month expiring in November.

One “butterfly” trade would be to buy one unit each of the first- and third-month contracts while selling two units of the second. Currently, that trade prices with a reading of -6.9, the difference in costs between the butterfly’s “wings” in September and November and the “belly” in October. That pricing reflects the premium that investors are giving to own volatility over the election. Trading of VIX futures started in 2004.

“In the history of the VIX futures contracts, we’ve never had an event risk command this sort of premium into forward-dated vol at a specific tenor,” Bloomberg macro strategist Cameron Crise wrote in a blog post. “That obviously suggests that markets anticipate some pretty incredible fireworks.” He excluded a higher premium on March 18 of this year since front-month futures expired that day, when the S&P 500 fell 5.2%.

The VIX 1st/2nd/3rd contract butterfly is basically at a record The spread between October and November VIX futures is also wide at about -1.7 instead of about 0.2, which history suggests it should be based on the level of the spot VIX, according to Crise.

“If it starts trading above where it ‘ought’ to be, particularly given the risk premium lavished on the election, that could be a sign that punters are worried about 2000-style uncertainty,” Crise wrote, referring to the presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which ultimately was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. “You don’t need a particularly vivid imagination to think that that could get pretty ugly this time around.”

VIX above 23 and rises to peak VIX value

The stock market performance is negative, while the VIX rises above 23 until the VIX reaches a peak.

The market has big positive returns, while the VIX falls a VIX peak back to 23.

You might consider selling when VIX is high and buying again when VIX is low, but that's a mistake.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3642676&download=yes The VIX is Your FIX: a Flexible Strategy to Timing the Stock Market 11 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2020 Yosef Bonaparte University of Colorado at Denver - Department of Finance

Date Written: July 3, 2020

Abstract We use the VIX and basic trading behavior to time entry and exit from the market. Our strategy captures 89% of the bottom and 91% from the top (you miss only 11% and 9% from the peak point, respectively). We lay our strategy down in six acts.

Act I: the daily average return in the stock market is negative when VIX above 23; then sell if VIX in the way up and exceeds this threshold.

Act II: the average daily return during the journey of rising VIX above 23 is -0.6%.

Act III: the average daily return during the journey of declining from the peak 0.56%.

Act IV: exit (enter) when you have back-to-back two downs (up) days with overall 6% or more.

Act V: watch the Federal Reserve rates; exit when rates increase (decrease) during expansion (contraction).

Act VII: do not trust oil prices as a predictor for future economic growth since the supply side of oil is highly politicized between OPEC and OPEC+. Collectively: when it comes to transition between bear to bull markets or vice versa, the VIX is your FIX.

Keywords: Bull and Bear Market, Entry and Exit, Timing the Stock Market; Recession and Expansion

8% change in the VIX to 1% change in stock prices

Historically, an 8% change in the VIX has corresponded to a 1% change in stock prices.

VIX trading strategy

VIX 3mo / VIX

Over brought above 1.25 to 1.30

higher low is a bullish divergence ... rising above 1.0 Over sold below 1.0

BoAML Suttmeier wrote 2020 Jan. 26:

3-month VIX vs VIX has called tactical bottoms

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:e0956fde-e795-4f6d-a699-39846a209a8d Chart Blast- Desperately seeking bullish response to climactic oversold readings March 23.pdf 3-month VIX vs VIX ratio below 0.75 in late Feb and in mid March.

The NYSE was on the cusp of an 80% down day (80% of stocks down on 80% down volume). The NYSE ARMS Index (aka TRIN) closed on Friday (1/24) at 2.34, which is a tactical panic signal, but

we prefer 90% down days with ARMS above 2.0 to suggest a selling climax.

In addition, these selling climax days often coincide with the 3-month VIX vs VIX ratio hitting panic levels below 1.0, which has not happened yet. This signal last occurred in August (Chart Blast: 15 Aug 19) and proved to be bullish for the S&P 500.

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:168a21eb-1f24-471f-b7a9-6d19bf59a902 Wall Street Legend Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing Key in This Bull Market

Alternative exit signals for curve-carry positions employed in the market include the difference of VIX to its own moving average of some length (typically 12-20 days), or the VIX level relative to the VXV, the CBOE 3-month volatility index, as an indicator of curve shape.

Momentum when VIX is below 25

We find that during periods of accelerating profits and falling volatility (which tend to mostly coincide), Value, Risk and Low Quality have outperformed. And during periods of decelerating profits and rising volatility, Growth and Quality historically outperformed (see Table 1).

Momentum works when the VIX is below 25, but fails when the VIX is high.

A spike in the VIX generally heralds a change in leadership, and Momentum is one of the worst ways to invest at inflection points.

Signals for trades can be based on

• The VIX level relative to VIX3M, CBOE-3 monthly volatility index
• The difference between VIX and its moving average of any length (usually 12-20 days).

Volatility

The 8 Most Volatile Sectors

Energy

Industries in this sector include oil, gas, coal, and renewable energy technologies such as biomass, geothermal, hydrogen, hydro-electric power, ocean energy, solar, and wind energies. During the 2010s, this sector had the highest standard deviation of 20.3% based on returns from the Energy Select Sector Index (XLE).

This sector saw peak volatility in oil prices during the decade with the spot price for crude oil plummetting from $113.93 per barrel on April 29, 2011, to $88.19 on Sept. 12, 2011.

Commodities

Coming in with the second-highest standard deviation of 18.6% for the decade is the commodities sector. Commodities are a range of physical goods including natural resources, precious metals, and agricultural goods. If you were to invest in this sector through a commodities exchange-traded fund (ETF), your holdings might include exposure to such products as gold, silver, oil, gas, grains, or beef.

Financial

Banks, brokerage firms, financial services, insurance companies, credit card issuers, financial planners, securities exchanges, and commodity exchanges form the bulk of this sector. This sector experienced tremendous volatility during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed. For the 2010s, the financial sector's standard deviation came in third highest at 16.8%.

Technology

The technology sector ranked fourth in S&P Global's list of sectors with the most volatility, coming in with a standard deviation of 14.8%. The technology sector includes a wide range of goods and services. On the consumer side, it includes goods like personal computers, mobile phones, televisions, and household appliances. For businesses, the sector provides hardware, enterprise software, cloud-based computing, and logistics systems. Well-known companies in this sector include Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.

Consumer Discretionary

The consumer discretionary sector came in close behind the technology sector with a standard deviation of 14.6%. Included within this sector are retailing, media, consumer services, consumer durables, luxury goods, apparel, automobiles, and auto parts. Additional industries in the consumer discretionary sector include hotels, restaurants, and leisure.

Communication Services

The communication services sector ranks next with a standard deviation of 14.1% in the 2010s. The major companies in this sector include phone services, wireless communications services, cable providers, data services, Internet services, equipment manufacturers, media, and entertainment. Companies in the Communication Services Select Sector Index (XLC) include Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), and AT&T (T).

Health Care

During the 2010s, this sector experienced volatility of 12.4% based on returns from the Health Care Select Sector Index. This broad sector includes hospitals, physicians, dentists, medical equipment, supply manufacturers, and vendors. Investors in the health care sector might invest in a variety of health care companies, including pharmaceutical and biotech companies, health insurance companies, or pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs).

Utilities

Last on our list is the utilities sector, which experienced a standard deviation of 11.8% in the 2010s. Companies in this sector provide public services such as water, sewage services, electricity, dams, and natural gas. Utilities are generally considered a less volatile sector compared to the others on this list. The companies in this sector are heavily regulated and generally provide investors with dividends. Long-term investors will purchase utility stocks for their overall stability and income stream.

https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0712/the-8-most-volatile-sectors.aspx

Global Volatility

Global U.S. Germany Japan U.K. Switzerland volatility (VIX) (VDAX) (VXJ) (VFTSE) (VSMI) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/ifdp-notes/understanding-global-volatility-20180119.pdf

Cboe NDX Volatility Index, a measure of implied equity swings for the Nasdaq-100, and the counterpart so-called “fear gauge” for the S&P 500. Another comes from unusual simultaneous gains in the technology index and the NDX recently. At one point on July 13, the Nasdaq-100 was up 1% while the Cboe NDX Volatility Index climbed 8% -- a situation which had never happened before, according to Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research Inc. And as of 10:30 a.m. in New York on July 15, both gauges were positive for a second straight day.

The fact that options traders are pricing in higher volatility despite record highs for the Nasdaq is among reasons for “caution,” Goepfert wrote in a note, as is the reversal that eventually left the technology measure in the red on Monday. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/nasdaq-fear-gauge-flashes-warning-signs-about-technology-rally

VIX futures term structure

VIX Futures As a Market Timing Indicator 11 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2018 Athanasios Fassas University of Thessaly; Hellenic Open University

Nikolaos L. Hourvouliades American College of Thessaloniki

Date Written: June 3, 2018

VIX futures term structure for Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3189502

---VIX trading Alternate--- Three data series are used in the system: the iPath S&P 500 VIX (VIX), SPDR S&P 500 exchange traded fund (ETF) (SPY), and the ProShares Ultra Dow 30 ETF (DDM). SPY is a proxy for the S&P 500 and DDM is a leverage version of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). All calculations are done on the VIX series, and when a VIX buy signal is issued, equal amounts of SPY and DDM are bought the next trading day.

A time series has three values for each day: low, high, and close. For this trading system, the VIX time series is calculated based upon the low of each day. The system rules are as follows:

For buys:

1. Calculate the 50-day moving average using the low price from the VIX time series.

2. Count the number of times in 11 days the VIX is below its moving average. Do this by looking back 11 days from the current bar and checking to see if the VIX is below the 50-day moving average. The VIX must have 11 days below the moving average before a signal is generated.

3. If the 11-day count is exactly 11, then buy the SPY and DDM.

The "sell" rules are the same as the "buy," with the exception that the VIX must be above the moving average and the count reflects the number of days the VIX is below the average.

COLORING NOTE: If past 11 days are below moving average, MA line will be colored red. If past 11 days are above MA, the line will be colored green. Otherwise, the line will be blue.

Author: Trent Gardner Source: Stocks & Commodities, December 2012: "Using VIX To Forecast The S&P 500"

Parameters

MAperiod moving average calculation range Default Value: 50 | Minimum: 1 | Maximum: 999 Type: Numeric

LBperiod lookback period to check if vix is above or below the MA Default Value: 11 | Minimum: 1 | Maximum: 100 Type: Numeric

LBtrig threshold number of bars in the lookup period that will trigger buy/sell signal Default Value: 11 | Minimum: 1 | Maximum: 100 Type: Numeric

http://professional.teletrader.com/help/EN/default.htm?turl=WordDocuments%2Fvixtradingsystem.htm

http://www2.wealth-lab.com/WL5Wiki/TASCDec2012.ashx

JP Morgan

This chart shows the quarterly fed funds rate and US Treasury yield from September 1986 to December 2022. The dotted circles show the peak US 10-year treasury yield during the FOMC tightening cycle.

   In September of 1987 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 9.6% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked at 9.85% in March of 1989
   In December of 1994 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 7.8% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked at 6% in June of 1995
   In December of 1999 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 6.4% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked at 6.53% in June of 2000
   In June of 2006 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 5.1% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked at 5.26% in March of 2007
   In September of 2018 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 3.1% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked at 2.41% in March of 2019
   In December of 2022 the 10-year US treasury yield peaked at approx. 3.9% while the Fed Funds effective rate peaked hasn't been reached yet for this tightening cycle

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of February 2, 2023. https://view.mcw.jpmorgan.com/?qs=83bb1c22ca4cfae585bf66b494b755872a79397004f539f12e9d266ab28f1dec01460213027555e57ef999a68a780ef1397a74f4953ed7833b0fedb911f8a5298761ca4bbd9ec091

2022-12-23 Investors better buckle up and brace for impact in the first half of 2023, according to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs BYSAGARIKA JAISINGHANI, JOHN CHENG AND BLOOMBERG December 21, 2022 at 9:51 AM CST

JPMorgan’s team expects the S&P 500 to fall back toward the lows seen in 2022 before a pivot by the Fed fuels a second-half rebound that will leave it about 10% higher than current levels. At its worst point this year, in October, the index had slumped 25% to 3,577 points. https://fortune.com/2022/12/21/what-will-happen-stock-market-next-year-goldman-sachs-jp-morgan/

2022-12-09 JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a "mild to hard recession" next year as a slowing economy and runaway inflation hurt consumer spending. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/recession-drumbeat-gets-louder-more-us-ceos-strike-mellow-note-2023-2022-12-09/

Dec 8, 2022 JPMorgan looks at an 'Armageddon scenario' of the Fed jacking rates up to 6.5%. Its conclusion may be a surprise. Provided by Dow Jones. Dec 8, 2022 7:51 AM CST

... the S&P 500 index has been basically unchanged over the last seven months even as the peak in Fed pricing has climbed to 5% from around 3% in May 2022.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221208313/jpmorgan-looks-at-an-armageddon-scenario-of-the-fed-jacking-rates-up-to-65-its-conclusion-may-be-a-surprise

Jobless Claims jumping 10% above three month average

Banking giant JPMorgan points out that jobless claims recently jumped 10% above their preceding three-month average. And every time in history that has happened, the economy eventually entered into a recession.

“There have been no false signals with this indicator,” says the bank’s analyst Mislav Matejka in a note to investors. “Unlike the shape of the yield curve, or the money supply, which are leading indicators, this one is more coincident.”

But here’s the good news for investors: JPMorgan says that whenever this indicator goes off, the S&P 500 returns an average of 11% over the subsequent 12 months'. https://money.yahoo.com/dont-duped-doom-n-gloom-152000373.html

Sweet Spot is PEG lower than 2.3x but higher than 0

2022 PEG ratio (S&P 500 companies)

This chart is a scatter plot of S&P 500 companies according to their price to earnings to growth ratio, which is a measure of growth-adjusted valuation. There is a green stripe on the chart denoting companies that have a PEG ratio lower than the market’s 2.3x ratio, but above 0 (because a PEG ratio below zero suggests negative growth expectations).

The "Sweet Spot" is the 233 S&P 500 companies fall within that range (a PEG ratio lower than 2.3x but higher than 0). 95 have a PEG ratio below 0, and 171 have a PEG ratio above 2.3x.

Banks & cyclical shares

Mar 15, 2021 "Value continues to look very appealing, especially the banks," JPMorgan analysts including Mislav Matejka said. https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-rotation-into-value-stocks-has-a-long-way-left-to-run-jpmorgan-and-barclays-say/articleshow/81517414.cms

JP Morgan says stick with cyclical stocks and banks

cyclical shares and banks should not be sold, JP Morgan said, as long as bond yields are moving up cyclicals

[instead of buying] healthcare and staples as well as technology. https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/jp-morgan-says-stick-with-cyclical-stocks--7841910.html

Mar 2, 2021 "It's too soon in the growth, policy and inflation cycles to be defensive," John Normand, JPMorgan's head of cross-asset fundamental strategy, said in a recent note to clients. CNN Business "Before the Bell" By Julia Horowitz • Tuesday, March 2

Mar 1, 2021
Equities will be able to weather repricing in bond markets, JP Morgan says

Equity prices will be able to digest the repricing now unfolding in government bond markets and the Growth-Policy tradeoff remains "supportive", strategists at JP Morgan argued.

The reason for the recent drop in stocks was the speed at which yields had risen together with the move higher in real rates, as inflation forwards fell.

But those increases should slow, the strategy team led by Mislav Matejka said, pointing out that a convergence with breakevens was not imminent because growth and inflation were about to accelerate.

"Big picture, the phase of activity pickup is ahead of us, as signalled by a M1 surge, which should also coincide with the easing of lockdowns across Europe," they added.

"At the same time, excess liquidity is likely to stay ample, as policymakers err on the side of caution."

Two potential flies in the ointment were the US dollar and the China credit impulse.

Instead of continuing to weaken, as the consensus expects, the Greenback might remain "resilient", Matejka explained.

The Chinese credit impulse meanwhile, which leads commodity prices by 6-9 months, had peaked.

... investors should focus in Financials and the consumer reopening trade.

"Regionally, while we were OW US in 2020, we believe that US will not be the leader this year. Tech correlations with bond yields are becoming more and more negative."
https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/equities-will-be-able-to-weather-repricing-in-bond-markets-jp-morgan-says--7827585.html
 

Feb 25, 2021 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street’s “fear gauge” is in a bubble, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan. By April Joyner

Investor appetite for protective options has kept the Cboe Volatility Index elevated despite muted moves on the benchmark S&P 500, according to the bank. The gap between investor expectations for volatility in U.S. stocks, as measured by the VIX, and actual moves on the S&P 500 is near its highest levels over the past 30 years, said Marko Kolanovic, J.P. Morgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy.

In Kolanovic’s view, that level of caution is not justified, and the bank expects stocks will keep climbing. The gap between investor expectations and actual market moves, he wrote, is “indicating a bubble of fear and demand from investors looking to hedge or profit from a hypothetical market selloff.”

The demand for options is twofold, said Matt Amberson, principal at ORATS: some investors are buying puts for protection, while others are choosing to maintain exposure to equities through calls. Both, he said, have helped prop up the VIX.

The VIX has tended to fall in the past when the gap between the fear gauge and realized volatility has grown similarly wide, according to Kolanovic. But the last such gap, in late August, preceded a substantial sell-off in U.S. stocks, said Christopher Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group.

The rotation to value and cyclical stocks from growth stocks has effectively “pulled the S&P (500) in two different directions,” Murphy said. But if that trend changes, market gyrations could pick up, he said, though he also believes the VIX is likely to decline over the coming months.

“I don’t know if you can assume that that rotation would occur forever,” he said. “Is two weeks a long enough time frame to think that the market is really calm?”

Reporting by April Joyner; Editing by David Gregorio https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-volatility/wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-in-a-bubble-says-j-p-morgan-idUKKBN2AO2R0

Jan. 25, 2021 10:39 AM JPMorgan equity strategist Mislav Matejka expects “hot” areas of financial markets could be subject to bouts of profit taking which could spread to equity indices.

However, he said, those dips could be buying opportunities. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-stocks-bubble/time-to-pause-wall-st-grows-wary-of-some-stock-bubbles-idUSKBN29U1UB

Jan. 19, 2021 04:52 PM ET Promoted Content By Direxion

JP Morgan analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas is predicting 26% growth through the year as business and Wall Street see massive benefits thanks to easy borrowing and high liquidity justifying even higher valuations. And, in stark contrast to the moderate view, Lakos-Bujas sees much of the growth occurring in the first half of the year thanks to fewer disruptive events emanating from the new Biden administration. https://www.investors.com/promoted-content/direxion/2021-predictions-the-election-is-over-vaccines-are-here-what-could-go-wrong/

Jan. 21, 2021 | Yahoo Finance | No matter who is president of the United States. (76 years of data)| Miles Udland & Sam Ro | Yahoo Finance | Thursday, Jan 21, 2021

Citing work from BMO, my colleague Brian Sozzi wrote Wednesday that stocks have tended to perform better under Democratic presidents than Republican presidents.

On average, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has risen 10.4% per year when a Democrat occupies the White House against an average gain of 6.6% during years in which a Republican is the sitting president. Data from CFRA shows that in years when Democrats control both the White House and both chambers of Congress — as will be the case for at least the next two years — the S&P 500’s average gain has been 9.8%.

https://www.emailimagecdnuyi.com/g03rsdz1ki/en_us/images/600954ff0a190-1611224319.0414.png

Stocks go up no matter which party the President represents, though Democratic presidents do tend to be better for stocks than Republicans. (Source: CFRA) A guiding principle for writing and thinking about the stock market here at the Morning Brief is to reiterate, over and over, that stocks tend to go up over time.

This does not mean stocks always go up or only go up.

But it does mean that more interesting and fruitful discussions about markets will be had when the central question shifts from why stocks might go down to why they keep going up.

As this chart from JPMorgan’s quarterly guide to the markets shows, in most years the S&P 500 declines at least 10% from its intra-year peak. Many years include a drop of 15% or more.

https://www.emailimagecdnuyi.com/g03rsdz1ki/en_us/images/6009550fa2726-1611224335.6654.png

https://newsletter.comms.yahoo.net/H/2/v600000177249554f7c96efc6e96638918/96528ce6-c8d3-44f3-8897-842ecc2be9f0/HTML

‘Neutral’ on US equities, Jan 14, 2021

JP Morgan turns ‘Neutral’ on US equities after three years of ‘Overweight’ stance By: Kshitij Bhargava | Updated: Jan 14, 2021 3:42 PM

The leadership of US equities over others in the region has been consistent with growth outperforming value, and tech stocks outperforming banks, which may no longer be the case.

Analysts at JP Morgan believe US equities were benefiting from an exceptional US Federal Reserve backstop and more growth heavy inclination.

United States stock markets recovered strongly from March lows and shrugged pandemic fears to end 2020 with significant gains. While Dow Jones gained 67% between the end of March and December, S&P 500 jumped 70% in the same time period, and NASDAQ zoomed a massive 90%. After this stellar performance, global investment bank JP Morgan has now turned ‘Neutral’ on US Equities for the first time in three years. In a recent report, the global brokerage firm said that it was ‘Overweight’ on US equities post the 2017 reflation trade. It held that view throughout 2018, 2019 and 2020, but not anymore. https://www.financialexpress.com/investing-abroad/featured-stories/jp-morgan-turns-neutral-on-us-equities-after-three-years-of-overweight-stance/2170938/

Growth and technology, 2020 Nov 12

Growth and technology: As hard-hit cyclical sectors played catch-up this week, we learned growth stocks could face headwinds as the economy continues to reopen and medical progress towards a vaccine becomes more viable. Nonetheless, our belief in megatrends like digital transformation and healthcare innovation to deliver above-average growth in the years ahead hasn’t wavered. Look at higher valuations with context—lower interest rates and slower macroeconomic growth as a result of more modest fiscal stimulus means that the companies with the best growth profiles will command a premium. All market data from Bloomberg Finance L.P., 11/12/20.

Stock market to resume bull market rally after the election, with nearly 50% upside

The stock market is poised to resume its bull market rally after the election, with nearly 50% upside still left to climb over the long term, JPMorgan said in a note to investors Monday.

PUBLISHED MON, NOV 2 202011:38 AM EST
Jesse Pound
@JESSERPOUND

2019 4th quarter +4% return on average historically

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/jp-morgan-says-market-could-hit-its-2020-forecast-this-year.html

JP Morgan says the market is doing so well, it could hit the firm’s 2020 forecast this year
PUBLISHED MON, OCT 28 2019 9:19 AM EDT UPDATED MON, OCT 28 2019 4:11 PM EDT
Yun Li
@YUNLI626

“Looking ahead, given improving trade rhetoric, the market could reach our 2020 midyear price target of 3,200 sooner (by late 2019 or early 2020),” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist. J.P. Morgan said hedge funds and other players will continue to ramp up their equity exposure, which will keep the rally going. The fourth quarter is seasonally the strongest for equities, delivering 4% return on average historically, according to the bank.

Risk Off

J.P. Morgan Strategist: Market is a ‘Risk-Off’ Environment by IAN YOUNG on OCTOBER 1, 2019

When asked about what has been amiss with markets lately, Samantha Azzarello, JP Morgan ETFs Global Market Strategist explained, “I actually think it was the issues that popped up with repo.”

“We didn’t think the financial plumbing issues are really indicative of anything systemic, right? It’s just liquidity problems. We don’t think it’s solvency issues. But it scared people. And I think it also points to the fact that in the broader bond market we’re going to see liquidity issues going forward,” Azzarello continued.

The Federal Reserve’s Next Steps? The Fed is likely to step in again as the market could be delicate says the strategist.

“So I mean the New York Fed is going to get back into the open market operations. They’re going to look at the asset and liability pieces of their balance sheet. But really it comes down to the fact that more collateral on the market is probably necessary, especially as funding needs come to call. And I think you put that along with the idea of slowing economic growth, and started issues, and all these different things, and this all feels kind of fragile,” added Azzarello.

Related: 3 Reasons Why I See Further Upside Potential for Gold Prices

While the steep drop from the fresh highs the market made mid-September is still in play, there may be a more insidious move brewing according to Azzarello.

“Is it possible that we get a 15% decline in the markets this quarter? Absolutely. “I really do think so. Especially if the trade tensions deteriorate, we had that news over the weekend, which was alarming, at best, about stopping capital flows. So if anything I think there’s more downside risk. But I would say it feels very episodic in nature. It feels like the volatility swings are very temporary in nature and then everything just the dues. So I think staying the course is probably key,” Azzarello warned.

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom says the market strategist, as equities typically rebound in the long run. “I think longer run we always have to make the case for equities. I think if you look at flows year to date, all the money has been going into bonds or cash equivalents. We are all aware of that and there has been massive net out flows out of stocks, speaking to the fact that maybe, you know given flows alone, you have more upside potential for equities,” she noted cautiously.

Conference Board

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

Up to nine months in advance, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. does the best at signaling coming recessions and expansions. Based on a statistical test,11 I reject the hypothesis that other indicators are equally as good at predicting a recession one to six months in advance. At seven to nine months ahead, the Conference Board’s leading index remains the best predictor, but I cannot reject a hypothesis that three other indicators are equally as good (the BBK Leading Index and the two yield curve measures). The Conference Board’s leading index is highly accurate in the near term, achieving an AUC value of 0.97 one to three months ahead. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/425 Chicago Fed Letter, No. 425, 2019 Crossref Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions? By David Kelley

see https://data-central.conference-board.org/

Present Situation Index

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021, and marked the third straight monthly increase. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—surged to 161.3 (1985=100) from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 83.8 (1985=100) in January, up from a revised reading of 81.9 in December. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Jan-2024

NEW YORK, Dec. 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December to 110.7 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 148.5 (1985=100) from 136.5 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—leapt to 85.6 (1985=100) in December, up from its downwardly revised reading of 77.4 in November. This sharp increase brings expectations back to the levels of optimism last seen in July of this year.

NEW YORK, Sept. 26, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined again in September to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose slightly to 147.1 (1985=100) from 146.7. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 73.7 (1985=100) in September, after falling to 83.3 in August. Expectations fell back below 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-fell-again-in-september-301938908.html

NEW YORK, July 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 160.0 (1985=100) from 155.3 last month. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-improved-again-in-july-301885128.html

The Conference Board July 20, 2023 -- July 20, 2023 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-fell-further-in-june-301882159.html

LEI for the U.S. Fell Further in June About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May. The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).

“The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

NEW YORK, April 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3 (1985=100), down from 104.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year—every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3—about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States—to April 19.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-declined-in-april-301806868.html

NEW YORK, March 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased slightly in March to 104.2 (1985=100), up from 103.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 153.0 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked up to 73.0 (1985=100) from 70.4 in February (a slight upward revision). However, for 12 of the last 13 months—since February 2022—the Expectations Index has been below 80, the level which often signals a recession within the next year. The cutoff date for the survey was March 20th, about ten days after the bank failures in the United States.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-increased-slightly-in-march-301783423.html

NEW YORK, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in February for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 102.9 (1985=100), down from 106.0 in January (a downward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 152.8 (1985=100) from 151.1 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell further to 69.7 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January. Notably, the Expectations Index has now fallen well below 80—the level which often signals a recession within the next year. It has been below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.

NEW YORK, Jan. 31, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in January following an upwardly revised increase in December 2022. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), down from 109.0 in December (an upward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 150.9 (1985=100) from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 77.8 (1985=100) from 83.4 partially reversing its December gain. The Expectations Index is below 80 which often signals a recession within the next year. Both present situation and expectations indexes were revised up slightly in December. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-declined-in-january-301734825.html

NEW YORK, Dec. 21, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December following back-to-back monthly declines. The Index now stands at 108.3 (1985=100), up sharply from 101.4 in November. The Present Situation Index ... based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions ... increased to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 82.4 from 76.7. However, Expectations are still lingering around 80 ... a level associated with recession. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-bounced-back-in-december-301708208.html

NEW YORK, Nov. 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November after also losing ground in October. The Index now stands at 100.2 (1985=100), down from 102.2 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 137.4 from 138.7 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 75.4 from 77.9. 

NEW YORK, Oct. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in October after back-to-back monthly gains. The Index now stands at 102.5 (1985=100), down from 107.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined sharply to 138.9 from 150.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 78.1 from 79.5.

NEW YORK, Sept. 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 108.0 (1985=100), up from 103.6 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 149.6 from 145.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to 80.3 from 75.8.

NEW YORK, Aug. 30, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in August, following three consecutive monthly declines. The Index now stands at 103.2 (1985=100), up from 95.3 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 145.4 from 139.7 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to 75.1 from 65.6. 

NEW YORK, Aug. 17, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022. The Measure now stands at 34, down from 42 in Q2. The Measure has fallen deeper into negative territory, to lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but consistent with prior contractionary periods. (A reading below 50 points reflects more negative than positive responses.)

The Q3 survey asked CEOs to describe the economic conditions they are preparing to face over the next 12-18 months.  An overwhelming majority—81%—said they were preparing for a brief and shallow recession, with limited global spillover, while only 7% said they do not expect a recession. Thus far, however, CEOs do not seem to be experiencing the recessionary conditions that typified recent contractions. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past three months.

"CEO confidence plunged further in Q3, amid continued high inflation, rapidly tightening monetary policy, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist of The Conference Board. Yet, alongside this deepening concern over the direction of the economy, business leaders continue to report conditions and intentions at their own firms that paint a more nuanced picture. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past 3 months, while a majority said they intend to continue expanding their workforce and increasing wages."   

"CEOs are now preparing for the near-inevitability of a US recession by year-end or in 2023," said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Trustee of The Conference Board. "However, the vast majority expect the downturn to be brief and shallow—compared to just 12% expecting a deep recession, with material global spillover. Inflation remains the top challenge for CEOs, with 60% reporting that their input costs have increased or held steady over the past three months, with little expectation of easing in 2022."

NEW YORK, July 26, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, following a larger decline in June. The Index now stands at 95.7 (1985=100), down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 141.3 from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked down to 65.3 from 65.8.

NEW YORK, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May—and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7). 

NEW YORK, May 31, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased slightly in May, following a small increase in April. The Index now stands at 106.4 (1985=100), down from 108.6 in April (after an upward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 149.6 from 152.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 77.5 from 79.0.

April 26, 2022 - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased slightly in April, after an increase in March. The Index now stands at 107.3 (1985=100), down from 107.6 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 152.6 from 153.8 last month. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked up to 77.2 from 76.7.  

NEW YORK, March 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index … whenever the year-over-year change in this index has turned negative by more than 15 points, the economy has entered into a recession.

NEW YORK, March 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased slightly in March, after a decrease in February. The Index now stands at 107.2 (1985=100), up from 105.7 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 153.0 from 143.0 last month. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 76.6 from 80.8. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/consumer-confidence-rebounds-slightly-in-march-301512740.html

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index decreasing to 107.0 from the initially reported reading of 110.5 in February.

Mar 29, 2022 -- The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 in March from a revised 105.7 in February, according to data released Tuesday.

The rise in the headline index was driven by a more optimist assessment of consumers' current conditions. The present situation index rose to 153.0 from 143.0 the previous month, suggesting that economic growth continued into March.  https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202203297218/us-consumer-confidence-increased-in-march-on-robust-labor-market

NEW YORK, Jan. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in January, after an increase in December. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 115.2 in December. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 148.2 from 144.8 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 90.8 from 95.4. 

NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in December, after an upward revision in November. The Index now stands at 115.8 (1985=100), up from 111.9 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—was relatively flat at 144.1, down from 144.4 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose to 96.9 from 90.2.

NEW YORK, Nov. 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ --

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following an increase in October. The Index now stands at 109.5 (1985=100), down from 111.6 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 142.5 from 145.5 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 87.6 from 89.0.

NEW YORK, Oct. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October, following declines in the previous three months. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), up from 109.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 147.4 from 144.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 91.3 from 86.7. 

NEW YORK, Aug. 31, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following a decrease in July (a downward revision). The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 125.1 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 147.3 from 157.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 91.4 from 103.8.

NEW YORK, July 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was relatively unchanged in July, following gains in each of the prior five months. The Index now stands at 129.1 (1985=100), up from 128.9 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 159.6 to 160.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—was virtually unchanged at 108.4, compared to 108.5 last month. 

NEW YORK, June 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 148.7 to 157.7. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 107.0, up from 100.9 last month. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/consumer-confidence-increased-in-june-301322098.html

NEW YORK, May 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following a gain in April. The Index now stands at 117.2 (1985=100), down marginally from 117.5 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased from 131.9 to 144.3. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 99.1 in May, down from 107.9 last month. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/consumer-confidence-holds-steady-in-may-301298857.html

NEW YORK, April 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose sharply again in April, following a substantial gain in March. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—soared from 110.1 to 139.6. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose moderately, from 108.3 last month to 109.8 in April.

NEW YORK, March 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 89.6 to 110.0. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—also improved, from 90.9 last month to 109.6 in March.  https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-surged-in-march-301258578.html

See Figure 27 https://www.yardeni.com/pub/consconfidcb.pdf

NEW YORK, Feb. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved again in February, after increasing in January. The Index now stands at 91.3 (1985=100), up from 88.9 in January. The Present Situation Index — based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions — climbed from 85.5 to 92.0. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell marginally, from 91.2 last month to 90.8 in February.  https://www.pnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-improved-in-february-301233589.html

NEW YORK, Jan. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved moderately in January, after decreasing in December. The Index now stands at 89.3 (1985=100), up from 87.1 in December. However, the Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 87.2 to 84.4. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 87.0 in December to 92.5 this month.  

NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in December, after decreasing in November. The Index now stands at 88.6 (1985=100), down from 92.9 in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased sharply from 105.9 to 90.3. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 84.3 in November to 87.5 this month.https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-declined-in-december-301197546.html  

NEW YORK, Nov. 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, after remaining relatively flat in October. The Index now stands at 96.1 (1985=100), down from 101.4 (an upward revision) in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased slightly from 106.2 to 105.9. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – declined from 98.2 in October to 89.5 this month.

NEW YORK, Sept. 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, after declining in August. The Index now stands at 101.8 (1985=100), up from 86.3 in August. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 85.8 to 98.5. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 86.6 in August to 104.0 this month.

NEW YORK, Aug. 25, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in August, after declining in July. The Index now stands at 84.8 (1985=100), down from 91.7 in July. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased sharply from 95.9 to 84.2. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – declined from 88.9 in July to 85.2 this  month.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-decreased-in-august-301117941.html

NEW YORK, July 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, after increasing in June. The Index now stands at 92.6 (1985=100), down from 98.3 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 86.7 to 94.2. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – decreased from 106.1 in June to 91.5 this month.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-decreased-in-july-301101272.html

NEW YORK, June 30, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in June, after virtually no change in May. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 85.9 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 68.4 to 86.2. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 97.6 in May to 106.0 this month.

One potentially big caveat: The cutoff date for the survey was June 18, shortly before states such as Texas and Arizona reimposed new restrictions after a fresh outbreak of COVID-19 cases. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-jumps-to-3-month-high-but-still-well-below-precrisis-levels-2020-06-30

NEW YORK, May 26, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following a sharp decline in April. The Index now stands at 86.6 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined from 73.0 to 71.1. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – improved from 94.3 in April to 96.9 this month.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-stabilizes-in-may-301065195.html

NEW YORK, April 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated further in April, following a sharp decline in March. The Index now stands at 86.9 (1985=100), down from 118.8 in March. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – also declined considerably, from 166.7 to 76.4. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – improved from 86.8 in March to 93.8 this month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-140000164.html

NEW YORK, March 31, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined sharply in March, following an increase in February. The Index now stands at 120.0 (1985=100), down from 132.6 in February. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 169.3 to 167.7. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – declined from 108.1 last month to 88.2 this month.

NEW YORK, Feb. 25, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved slightly in February, following an increase in January. The Index now stands at 130.7 (1985=100), up from 130.4 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.9 to 165.1. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 101.4 last month to 107.8 this month.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-consumer-confidence-index-increased-slightly-in-february-301010827.html

NEW YORK, Jan. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a moderate increase in December. The Index now stands at 131.6 (1985=100), up from 128.2 (an upward revision) in December. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.5 to 175.3. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 100.0 last month to 102.5 this month.

NEW YORK, Dec. 31, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased marginally in December, following a slight increase in November. The Index now stands at 126.5 (1985=100), down from 126.8 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 166.6 to 170.0. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – decreased from 100.3 last month to 97.4 this month.

NEW YORK, Nov. 26, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following a slight decline in October. The Index now stands at 125.5 (1985=100), down from 126.1 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.5 to 166.9. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 94.5 last month to 97.9 this month.

Oct 29, 2019
https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2019/10/consumer-confidence-declines-in-october/
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined 0.4 Points to 125.9 in September. The Present Situation Index increased by 1.7 points to 172.3. The Expectations Index, based on consumers short-term outlook for income, declined 1.9 points to 94.9.

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

Chart 4: The LEI diffusion index continues to show a strong recession signal [Oct. 2022, Page 5 of 6]. https://www.conference-board.org/publications/pdf/index.cfm?brandingURL=Leading-Indicators-Recession

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index % change over 8 months. The LEI has contracted for six consecutive months. In the long-term history of the index, it has never experienced that long of a losing streak without already being in, or soon approaching, a recession. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/different-strings-similar-story

https://cs1.schwab.com/track?type=click&enid=YXVpZD0mYW1wO21haWxpbmdpZD1JU0VSSUVTREFJTFkyMDIyMTIwODEzNDgzNSZhbXA7bWVzc2FnZWlkPTI1MDAmYW1wO2RhdGFiYXNlaWQ9NTAwJmFtcDtzZXJpYWw9MTAwODM2NTIwJmFtcDtlbWFpbGlkPUNPUEVMQU5ELkpBTUVTLkhAR01BSUwuQ09NJmFtcDt1c2VyaWQ9bWt0ZWQxMjgzNjEzMGJhY210cGx5Y2xhYWFiejN6eXpzN3AmYW1wO3RhcmdldGlkPSZhbXA7bW49JmFtcDtmbD0mYW1wO212aWQ9JmFtcDtleHRyYT0mYW1wOyZhbXA7JmFtcDs=&&&watch_video&&&https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/market-snapshot?cmp=em-QYD

CEO Confidence

98% of CEOs predict recession in 2023 - Conference Board Dec. 07, 2022 11:40 AM ET By: Niloofer Shaikh, SA News Editor

Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board, said on Wednesday that a recent survey conducted by the organization showed that 98% of CEOs expect a recession to hit the U.S. within the next 12 to 18 months. This was up from 95% earlier this year.

Looking at some other recent predictions about the Fed and the economy, BofA thinks the S&P could potentially fall about 25% from current levels. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3914931-98-of-ceos-predict-recession-in-2023---conference-board-federal-reserve-interest-rates-economy

BoAML

Themes

Value* Quality Risk Growth Momentum

• Interestingly, during periods of above-average interest rate volatility based on big upward or downward daily moves in the 10-yr Treasury yield, Value factors led by the widest margin (5.2ppt vs. the equal-wtd. index).

Exhibit 3: Factor performance during periods of above average interest rates volatility https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:67c665ce-8c7e-48ba-9f63-169e188a3f5a

Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE

The Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE and the world's revenue cycle have had a 76% correlation, R2, over a period of 30+ years.

A increasing GLOBAL WAVE is usually

• better for financial sector stocks
• higher bond yields.
• negative for utility stocks.
• rotation to emerging markets and other international equities
• An average increase of 14 percent over the 12 months in the MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) following a trough (lower values) of the Global Wave.

Global waves have an average increase in is two years and an average decline lasts one year. ,

---

The Global Wave Indicator, developed in 2008, captures multi-year trends in the global economic cycle. There are seven components in the Global Wave, each is global in nature (GDP weight each components from 50 countries) and take an average of the seven components. The following are important takeaways from the Global Wave:

• The Global Wave can serve as important signal to investor since the direction of the cycle often determines what type of stocks work at any point in the cycle (i.e., rotations in equity styles, regions, sector rotations).

• The average upturn in the Global Wave is two years and the average downturn lasts one year.

• We’ve quantified peaks and troughs in the Global Wave by measuring meaningful changes in the direction of the Global Wave which triggers changes in recommended investment styles.

• 2021 May 29 Currently the Global Wave is rising and has seen nine consecutive months of improvement and may be in an extended upturns given that the Global Wave tends to peak following tightening by central banks and we’re currently in a global loose monetary policy regime.

---

November 16, 2020 – Capital Market Outlook

According to its past history, “the global wave and the global earnings cycle have had a 76% correlation since 1988 so it seems likely a globally synchronized earnings upturn could drive a cyclical rotation.” This stage of the global wave cycle generally heralds higher bond yields, improved financial sector stocks, and it’s a negative for expensive bond-like stocks, such as utilities. It also tends to be associated with a weaker dollar and a rotation into emerging markets and other international stocks. https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/CMO_11-16-20_Merrill.pdf

---

Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE

The Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE and the world's revenue cycle have had a 76% correlation, R2, over a period of 30+ years.

A increasing GLOBAL WAVE is usually

• better for financial sector stocks
• higher bond yields.
• negative for utility stocks.
• rotation to emerging markets and other international equities
• An average increase of 14 percent over the 12 months in the MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) following a trough (lower values) of the Global Wave.

Global waves have an average increase in is two years and an average decline lasts one year. ,

BofA Rule of 20

According to the Rule of 20 - one of Bank of America’s key indicators to spot a market bottom - stocks still have further to fall.

The Rule of 20 measures the price to earnings ratio and consumer price index, and has a perfect track record of spotting the bottom in stocks. Currently, the rule is above 20, which means the upward momentum in stocks is likely a bear market rally instead of a sprint to a new bull cycle.

In order to satisfy the rule and signal stocks may once again be due for a bull market rally, S&P 500 firms would have to beat earnings expectations by an average of 50%, Subramanian says—or in more extreme scenarios, the S&P would need to tumble more than 40% to 2,500 points, or inflation fall to 0%.

KEY BACKGROUND Major stock indexes plunged into bear market territory in June as investors awaited the Fed’s biggest interest rate hike since 1998, but stocks have since largely recovered on hopes that inflation has finally peaked. At one point down 23% this year, the S&P is now off just 11% since the start of January. However, the economy unexpectedly shrank for a second consecutive quarter this year, and fears of a looming recession still haven't subsided. Expectations for third-quarter economic growth have fallen, particularly due to worse-than-projected housing market data.

Valuations in the last 5 years have trended higher. The average P/E in this period is measured at 18.1, which is admittedly higher than the 50-year average of 15.8.

Logs

Earnings yield spread (E/Y) and expected future returns

there was a strong correlation between the size of the earnings yield spread and expected future returns

the first interest rate hike

Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub did just that earlier this week, and he found that tighter policy isn't obviously bad for stocks as investors might expect. ‌ "While investors might interpret the reversal of Fed policy as a bad omen, history shows that stock returns remain robust in the months leading up to and following the first rate hike," Golub said in a note to clients on Wednesday. "More specifically, over the past four rate hike cycles (’94, ’99, ’04, ’15) the S&P 500 gained 9.5% in the 12 months prior to the first hike, and 26.0% over the subsequent three years." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-performance-around-fed-rate-hikes-morning-brief-100310094.html June 11, 2021

Monthly, first 10 days versus last 10 days

"Monthly seasonality First 10 days tend to be stronger than the last 10 days Monthly SPX seasonality back to 1928 shows that the first 10 sessions of the month tend to be stronger than the last 10 sessions of the month. The first three months of 2021 have followed this seasonal pattern, which is the tendency for all months except for December using average returns and for all months except for December, November, May and August using median returns. This suggests that late month weakness can precede early month strength in the following month." "Table 1: S&P 500 monthly seasonality for the first 10 sessions of the month vs the last 10 sessions of the month back to 1928 Monthly SPX seasonality back to 1928 shows that the first 10 sessions of the month tend to be stronger than the last 10 sessions of the month." "Month" "Average return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month" "Median return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month" "% of time first 10 sessions is stronger than last 10 sessions of the month" "% of time first 10 sessions is positive and the last 10 sessions is negative"

Month Average return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month Median return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month % of time first 10 sessions is stronger than last 10 sessions of the month % of time first 10 sessions is positive and the last 10 sessions is negative

Month	Average return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month	Median return of first 10 sessions vs the last 10 sessions of the month	% of time first 10 sessions is stronger than last 10 sessions of the month	% of time first 10 sessions is positive and the last 10 sessions is negative
January	0.39%	0.71%	54.30%	24.50%
February	0.61%	0.59%	59.60%	30.90%
March	0.65%	0.72%	61.30%	34.40%
April	0.72%	0.49%	61.30%	22.60%
May	0.33%	-0.22%	54.80%	25.80%
June	0.72%	1.41%	59.10%	33.30%
July	1.56%	1.63%	65.60%	26.90%
August	0.07%	-0.13%	55.90%	22.60%
September	0.68%	0.37	61.30%	26.90%
October	0.50%	0.97%	60.20%	23.70%
November	0.41%	-0.32%	57.00%	18.30%
December	-1.17%	-0.36%	43.00%	15.10%
All months	0.46%	0.42%	57.80%	25.40%

Banks

recent comments emanating from the Federal Reserve, suggesting a desire to both hold short rates lower and see inflation a bit higher, mean this trend may run further.

STEEPENING YIELD CURVE UPENDS TRADITIONAL BANK PECKING ORDER

COMPANIES AND MARKETS

By Sean Ryan | March 22, 2021

In 2019, we noted that lower interest rates were a net negative for banks under prevailing conditions. Of course, the world is a very different place in 2021 than it was in 2019, and banks are now enjoying a vastly more favorable interest rate environment.

Six-Month Analysis

2-10 Year Treasury Spread

A traditional gauge of how favorable the rate environment is for banks is the spread between two-year and 10-year treasuries. Borrowing short and lending long can be a dangerous game and banks do take steps to align the duration of their funding and their earning assets, but at the end of the day, some of this risk is unavoidable for banks. Over the past two quarters, however, a sharply widening 2-10 spread has delivered a spectacular windfall to bank shareholders.

In the nearly six months from September 30, 2020, through March 9, 2021, the 2-10 spread has more than doubled from just 55 basis points (bps) to a much healthier 138bps. Substantially, all the 83bps widening has come from the higher yield on the 10-year; the two-year yield actually declined by 3bps while the 10-year yield rose 86 bps. The upshot is that banks have been enjoying welcome relief from the grinding pressure on net interest margins.

Since net interest income (NII)—the money banks earn off the spread between their funding costs and asset yields—accounts for roughly two-thirds of the typical bank’s total revenue, this has a big impact on the earnings outlook for banks, and stock prices have reflected that. From September 30 through March 9—while the S&P 500 rose a very healthy 15%—the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, comprised of 24 large banks, was up by 62%.

Outperformance of 47% in a bit less than six months isn’t shabby, yet even that somewhat understates what the steeper curve is doing for banks.

KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index

In contrast, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index, which is comprised of 50 midsized banks, nearly doubled during the same period—up 95%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 79%. Should one find oneself at dinner with the manager of a regional bank stock portfolio, let him pick up the check; he will know why. https://insight.factset.com/steepening-yield-curve-upends-traditional-bank-pecking-order?_hsmi=117242128&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--P8ps5UusOnalaXhfJwwlcmc4itn08JPbw2FM7VgtjmUzGEmQey-1J8wtaRSwSvcWkUrV52ycDjw_vov50kldxr-lIRPCd9dHAq7WLQSWvS9dLChQ

Commodities have begun new supercycle

JP Morgan: Commodities have begun new supercycle of “years-long gains” Bloomberg News | February 11, 2021 | 3:45 am

With agricultural prices soaring, metal prices hitting the highest in years and oil well above $50 a barrel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is calling it: Commodities appear to have begun a new supercycle of years-long gains. https://www.mining.com/web/jp-morgan-sees-commodity-supercycle-already-kicking-off/

Christophe Barraud of Paris-based Market Securities

Forecaster of the Month Strong U.S. economic rebound will surprise markets and the Federal Reserve, says the best forecaster of 2020 Last Updated: Jan. 20, 2021 at 1:35 p.m. ET By Rex Nutting

Christophe Barraud wins Forecaster of the Year contest, ousting nine-in-a-row champ Jim O’Sullivan.

The U.S. economy is at risk of contracting again in the next few months but should see a strong rebound beginning in the spring, says chief economist Christophe Barraud of Paris-based Market Securities, who won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Year contest for 2020.

Barraud ousted reigning champion Jim O’Sullivan of TD Securities, who had won MarketWatch’s annual forecasting contest nine years in a row.

Related story: ‘Trillion on top of a trillion’ in stimulus will push 10-year Treasury yields to 2% by year-end, Forecaster of the Month says

Rough patch As the world suffers from dramatic record levels of infections and deaths from the coronavirus amid a discouraging rollout of the vaccines, Barraud thinks renewed restrictions on congregating in crowds could lead to negative economic growth in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.

Strong headline growth and job numbers could be deceiving. The uneven impact of the pandemic and recovery on different sectors and populations could leave a lot of inequality between and within countries.

Barraud is one of the few forecasters who covers Europe, China and the U.S. economies. He’s won multiple awards from Bloomberg News for his global forecasting prowess.

“U.S. economic activity is under pressure right now,” he says.

However, later this spring, the arrival of more fiscal stimulus, the vaccination of a growing share of the population, and the warmer weather that will allow more economic and social activity to occur outdoors should propel the U.S. economy higher.

Breaking news: Janet Yellen champions Joe Biden’s economic plan at confirmation hearing

“The uncertainty will end,” Barraud says. “The U.S. economy could rebound much faster than the consensus expects.”

The U.S. economy should grow faster than 4% this year, he says. The pre-pandemic level of gross domestic product should be surpassed in the second half of the year. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-u-s-economic-rebound-will-surprise-markets-and-the-federal-reserve-says-the-best-forecaster-of-2020-11611081390

JPMorgan

OVER THE LONG-TERM, STOCK VALUES ARE DRIVEN BY THE RISE IN CORPORATE PROFITS https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:e5dd17ed-6abc-4403-9828-caa312a3d1cf

Markets move on expectations and relativity. {Has a bear case emerged? Jacob Manoukian Client Advice and Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank Oct 01, 2021}

2020-Dec 17
JPMorgan, another blue-chip economist, thinks stocks could hit 4,600 by the end of 2021. Business Insider https://stocknews.com/news/spy-abnb-tsla-this-market-bubble-is-getting-dangerous/

Goldman Sachs

2020-Dec 17
Goldman Sachs, another blue-chip economist/analyst firm, predicts stocks will rally to 4,600 on the S&P 500 (up 25%) by the end of 2022. Business Insider https://stocknews.com/news/spy-abnb-tsla-this-market-bubble-is-getting-dangerous/

Robert Shiller

TRADING NATION
Robert Shiller calls stocks ‘highly priced,’ but wouldn’t cash out
PUBLISHED TUE, DEC 15 20206:49 PM EST
Stephanie Landsman
@STEPHLANDSMAN
WATCH NOW
VIDEO01:29
Robert Shiller: Covid-19 optimism is contributing to a ‘highly priced’ market
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes the fear of missing out is fading.

According to Shiller, the market phenomenon was the major narrative driving the historic rally off the March 23 low — as the world entered the throes of the coronavirus pandemic.

But with big gains in the rearview mirror, Shiller isn’t turning bearish.

“The market is highly priced, but it’s not so high that I wouldn’t consider it as an investment,” the behavioral economics expert told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday.

Shiller cites a turning point in the economy as vaccine optimism soars.

“If the vaccine works, we’ve made a fundamental change,” the Yale University professor said. “It’s not just a psychological change.”

BofAML

NYSE stocks score another 90% up day on 7/20
NYSE (NYA) stocks achieved a second 90% up day yesterday. The first occurred at all- time high for the S&P 500 (SPX) as of 7/9 (see report: A 90% up day at a new high and years without a 5% pullback are both rare). Forward returns for 90% up days tend to be positive 10 to 65 days after the signal, but negative divergences remain in place across a variety of indicators approaching bearish August-October seasonality, which is a risk to these signals (see report: Bearish divergences everywhere = tactical correction risk).

https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:543c7837-763d-4ec5-9313-4a998e3d9035

Don't expect the stock market to rally on the back of blowout corporate earnings, Bank of America says
Jul 12, 2021, 3:03 PM

a jump in earnings doesn't always result in a lock on hefty market returns, BofA analysts wrote. 
60% of losing quarters since 1996 have taken place in quarters with earnings beats, the firm said. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-sp500-2q-earnings-bofa-economic-growth-2021-7?amp

Even so, our analysis shows that, since 1871, buying the market when it closed the year at an all-time high offered a better-than-average return (15% vs. 10% for other years), with the distribution of returns skewed visibly to the upside (Chart 7). BofA. https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:c63ab724-d779-483e-bf12-75b1cc42d6d5

Goldman Sachs, another blue-chip economist/analyst firm, predicts stocks will rally to 4,600 on the S&P 500 (up 25%) by the end of 2022.

JPMorgan, another blue-chip economist, thinks stocks could hit 4,600 by the end of 2021.

2020-Dec 17
Bank of America, another blue-chip economist, thinks stocks will post modest gains that disappoint many. “Bank of America expects global GDP to grow 5.4% in the next year, while the US economy grows 4.5%. The S&P 500 will rise roughly 5% to 3,800, and the 10-year Treasury yield will climb to 1.5%, according to the firm’s outlook note.” – Business Insider https://stocknews.com/news/spy-abnb-tsla-this-market-bubble-is-getting-dangerous/

2020-Dec 16

Unless “it’s different this time” not a bearish overbought Unless it is different this time, this overbought reading for NYSE stocks above 200-day MAs should not be a bearish event as rallies for the SPX continued for years after this key breadth indicator peaked above 90% in 1975, 1983, 2004 and 2009. The drawdowns from peak overbought levels ranged from 0.46% to 9.93%. There are only four prior observations, and we present the data in Table 1 for guidance and historical context.

Table 1: S&P 500 performance moving into and after peaks above 90% for the percentage of NYSE stocks above 200-day moving averages (weekly data).

Date of overbought peak above 90% for % of NYSE stocks above 200-day MAs 6/6/1975 1/7/1983 1/23/2004 9/18/2009 12/11/2020 so far SPX rally from low to NYSE indicator peak above 90% 48.35% 39.99% 42.59% 56.33% 58.94% Number of weeks from SPX low to indicator peak above 90% 35 22 68 28 39 SPX rally after NYSE indicator peak above 90% 51.95% 952.11% 36.81% 216.14% Number of weeks from NYSE indicator peak above 90% until SPX peak 286 898 194 543 SPX rally from low to high 125.41% 1372.82% 95.08% 394.62% Number of weeks from SPX low to high 321 920 262 571 Max SPX drawdown from NYSE indicator peak date 9.93% 0.46% 6.80% 4.28% Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg Chart Blast 16 December 2020 Stephen Suttmeier, CFA, CMT

2020-Dec 11 
favored Value since August, says there's more value leadership ahead and ranks Financials - the largest overweight in the Value benchmark, and top pick for 2021. The Value call underpins her tepid outlook for the S&P 500.

2020-Dec 11 
Overweight Financials, Energy, Tech and Healthcare, and are underweight Staples, Communication Services and Real Estate.

Institutional Investor All-America Research Teams

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-ranked-no-1-strategist-in-institutional-investor-survey-1.1836914 Oct 25, 2022

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Ranked No. 1 Strategist in Institutional Investor Survey (Bloomberg) -- Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley, whose long-held bearish view on US stocks bore out this year, was ranked the best portfolio strategist in the latest Institutional Investor survey.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas was voted No. 2 in that category, followed by Michael Kantrowitz at Piper Sandler & Co. Lakos-Bujas also took the first spot in quantitative research, while his colleague Marko Kolanovic won the first place in equity-linked strategies.

For a seventh consecutive year, JPMorgan’s stock analysts topped the leaderboard of the best researchers on the US sell side, this time edging out Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley.

Evercore ISI stayed in the fourth place. Ed Hyman, the firm’s chairman, was picked as the top economist -- a title he has earned 42 times in the 51-year history of the II’s equity research survey. Among the firm’s other victors, Rich Ross won out as the No. 1 technical analyst, while Krishna Guha gained the top spot in Washington research.

Predicting 2022’s economy and financial markets has proved a tough job for many professional forecasters. After misjudging inflation as transitory, the Federal Reserve has been forced to hasten its monetary tightening at a rate not seen in decades. That’s wrecking havoc cross assets and regions.

=======

During this time of crisis, some research firms proved resilient:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. ranks as the No. 1 firm for the fifth year running, as 19 of the bank’s analysts were voted to this year’s First Team.

BofA Securities takes second place, also for the fifth year in a row, and

Evercore ISI, Morgan Stanley, and UBS round out the top five again this year.

Other firms have fallen behind. Citigroup drops from the No. 3 research provider in 2019 to seventh place this year, and Barclays is bumped from the top ten for the first time since acquiring Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Still others have risen above. Credit Suisse sees the biggest improvement, jumping to No. 6 from tenth last year. Wells Fargo Securities, Jefferies, and Wolfe Research have all earned new spots in the top ten.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/research/5254/Overview

BoAML Analyst Tone

Nov 24, 2020 Chart 43: REITs/Fins saw the biggest sentiment improvement in October.
BofA Analyst Tone sector Z-score change Oct. vs Sept. 2020 (average of three natural language processing (NLP) approaches plus our analysts’ ratings)
* Real Estate
* Financials

Tone may matter more than fundamentals

Based on backtesting, the majority of NLP approaches to our analyst research reports outperformed fundamental factors like Price-to-Book, Consensus Estimate Revisions and Return on Assets, as measured by Rank IC [information content].

For the industry group strategy, the majority of the BofAML NLP approaches outperformed traditional quant factors such as Price to Book, Net Income Growth and ROA based on our backtesting. The results assess each factor’s effectiveness by measuring how well they each can correlate with next month’s relative return (defined as the average Rank IC [information content]).

CEO Confidence, Conference Board

June 18, 2022 A new survey released Friday by the Conference Board found that more than 60% of CEOs globally expect a recession in their region before the end of 2023, with 15% of chief executives saying their region is already in recession.

June 7, 2021 CEO confidence has historically worked as a contrarian indicator, says Schwab strategist Liz Ann Sonders, who notes the Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence recently hit 82 – its highest level since its inception in 1976.

Things were very different a year ago, when CEO confidence hit a low of 34. Of course, stocks promptly soared as investors anticipated the eventual economic rebound. As for now, the spike in CEO confidence might signal the current environment is “as good as it gets”, cautions Sonders.

Her data suggests grounds for caution. Stocks have averaged annualised returns of 12.4 per cent when CEOs have been pessimistic, compared to just 0.4 per cent in periods of CEO optimism (readings above 65).

The combination of peak economic growth and stretched sentiment is a risk in the second part of 2021, says Sonders. Investors should not succumb to FOMO (fear of missing out), she says; this is a time for discipline and diversification.

NEW YORK, Oct. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council rose sharply in the final month of Q3, after a moderate increase in the first month of Q3. The measure stands at 64, up from 45. (A reading above 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses.)

CEO Confidence and Stock Returns

Sharp Recovery In Consumer And CEO Confidence

Jul. 01, 2021 1:10 AM ETDDM, DIA, DOG... David I. Templeton, CFA

Tuesday The Conference Board (TCB) reported the June Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.3 points to 127.3.

TCB's CEO confidence measure is reported quarterly and the second quarter CEO Confidence Index was reported at 82.0, a record high for that Index.

The Consumer Confidence report noted consumers had a more favorable view of current business conditions and the overall labor market.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/7/1/saupload_consumer-and-ceo-confidence-6-29-2021.png

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437367-sharp-recovery-in-consumer-and-ceo-confidence https://horanassoc.com/insights/sharp-recovery-consumer-and-ceo-confidence https://www.refinitiv.com/en/products/datastream-macroeconomic-analysis

Roger J. Best

University of Central Missouri May 2008

The change in six month outlook has a correlation of 0.3250 (p-value of 0.0303) with the SP500 announcement date returns, 0.2438 (p-value of 0.0823) with the DJIA announcement date returns, and 0.4194 (p-value of 0.0068) with the Nasdaq.

Collectively, these results imply a significant release of information to stock market participants. In general stock prices adjust in an expected manner when CEO perceptions are revealed hat is, when CEOs believe the coming six-months will be better economically, stock prices increase on the date of the announcement, and when CEOs believe the coming six-months will be worse economically, stock prices decline.

Table 3 further highlights the importance of the information contained in CEO confidence and outlook announcements. In general, the correlations for the largest stocks, as represented by the DJIA (an index of 30 blue-chip companies) are lower than for other stocks. Further, the correlations for the SP500 stocks are higher than those for the DJIA, but smaller than those for the Nasdaq. Thus, announcements of CEO confidence and six-month outlook appear to reduce information asymmetry for investors, particularly for smaller companies (those generally believed to have the highest levels of information asymmetry).

2019, August. JP Morgan

"We continue to believe that global equities will advance further before the next US recession strikes," strategists including Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy, said in a recent note to clients.

The thinking: The Fed is easing, and the European Central Bank appears ready to restart its bond-buying program. Jobless claims remain low, and second quarter earnings beat estimates. JPMorgan's strategists also said they see signs that global manufacturing woes have bottomed out, and global activity "is likely to look better into year end."

Of course, the trade war remains the big unknown. But JPMorgan believes de-escalation could be in the cards.

"We think ... that the US administration will be sensitive to adverse impacts from trade uncertainty on corporates and on the consumer, and that the latest threats might not be implemented after all," per Matejka's team.

After the yield curve inverts

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/after-yield-curve-inverts-stocks-typically-have-18-months-before-doom.html After the yield curve inverts, stocks typically have another year and a half before doom hits PUBLISHED 2019-08-14 Thomas Franck @TOMWFRANCK

Stocks typically have 18 months of gains following inversion of the 2-10 spread until returns start to turn negative, Credit Suisse data showed.

The market rallies more than 15% on average in the 18 months following the inversion, only thereafter turning downward. Sequential losses can start to add up after 18 months, Golub’s analysis showed. Yields fall as bond prices rise.

For example, the 2-10 curve first inverted ahead of the financial crisis on Dec. 30, 2005. The market posted a cumulative gain of 18.4% in the 18 months thereafter, but returned intensifying losses after one and a half years.

Despite suffering 9 recessions in the last 60 years, the U.S. economy tallied 619 months of growth versus only 101 months of contraction. Oh, and the US stock market (the S&P 500 Index) returned over +30,000% assuming reinvestment of dividends. Cycles are inevitable, but it has generally paid to respect economic gravity and stick with markets over time.

From March 2009 to early 2013, stocks returned over 100%, but bond flows into ETFs and mutual funds outpaced equity flows by 30:1, a trend that's persisted to today. [Andrew D. Goldberg is the Global Head of Market Strategy and Advice for J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, including J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Chase Wealth Management and J.P. Morgan Securities. ]

Inflation, Morgan Stanley 2020 October

Equities – do best when inflation is below trend and rising and nominal growth expectations rise; 

stocks do worst when inflation is above trend and falling, typical of a late-cycle environment.

Equity sectors – below-trend and rising inflation environments

global defensives underperform while cyclicals outperform in below-trend and rising inflation environments

Equity sectors – inflation is below trend and rising

Staples, utilities and health care are sectors which underperform the most when inflation is below trend and rising. On the contrary, this environment is best for cyclical stocks such as industrials and technology.

Bonds

Bonds underperform when inflation is rising.

Credit

Credit outperforms when inflation is below trend and rising, a typical early-cycle dynamic. On the other hand, credit underperforms the most in a late-cycle environment when inflation is above trend and falling.

USD

USD weakens as inflation falls. The bulk of the USD weakening usually happens when inflation is falling, with USD weakening the most against emerging markets currencies and JPY.

Commodities

Commodities – oil outperforms when inflation is below trend and rising while gold performs well when inflation is below trend and falling: Commodities are one of the most commonly known inflation hedges in the market, but this outperformance tends to happen as inflation rises from a low level.

https://www.morganstanley.com.au/ideas/the-return-of-inflation

Bull & Bear Indicator

Yardeni

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf

ChatGPT.ai

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS guide for sell and buy stocks

The Bull/Bear Ratio is a sentiment indicator used by investors to gauge the overall market sentiment. A Bull/Bear Ratio of 1.0 or less typically implies a balanced or bearish sentiment, meaning that there are roughly equal numbers of bullish and bearish investors.

Here's a guide for using the Bull/Bear Ratio of 1.0 or less to make decisions about buying and selling stocks:

Bull/Bear Ratio of 1.0 or Less - Guide for Sell and Buy Stocks:

• • 1. ** Understand the Ratio:

A Bull/Bear Ratio of 1.0 or less suggests that market sentiment is balanced or leaning towards the bearish side. This could be due to a variety of factors like economic uncertainty, geopolitical events, or other market-moving news.

• • 2. ** Evaluate Other Indicators:

Don't rely solely on one indicator. Consider other technical and fundamental indicators, such as moving averages, RSI, earnings reports, and economic data.

• • 3. ** Analyze News and Events:

Pay close attention to current events, economic reports, and geopolitical situations. These can significantly impact market sentiment.

• • 4. ** Determine Your Risk Tolerance:

Understand how much risk you're comfortable with. A balanced or bearish sentiment can mean potential downside, so make sure your portfolio is appropriately diversified.

• • 5. ** Consider Your Investment Horizon:

Short-term traders may react differently than long-term investors. Make sure your strategy aligns with your investment horizon.

• • 6. ** Bull/Bear Ratio Trends:

Look at the trend of the Bull/Bear Ratio. Is it declining, suggesting a shift towards more bearish sentiment, or is it stabilizing?

• • 7. ** Avoid Herd Mentality:

Don't follow the crowd blindly. Sometimes, a contrarian approach can be beneficial, especially in situations of extreme market sentiment.

• • 8. ** Diversify Your Portfolio:

Diversification helps spread risk. Consider investing in different sectors and asset classes to mitigate potential losses.

• • 9. ** Set Stop-Losses and Take-Profit Levels:

Establish clear exit points for your positions. This helps you manage risk and lock in profits.

• • 10. ** Stay Informed:

Continuously monitor market conditions and stay updated with relevant news and events. Market sentiment can change rapidly.

• • 11. ** Consult a Financial Advisor:

If you're uncertain about your decisions, consider seeking advice from a professional financial advisor. Remember, the Bull/Bear Ratio is just one of many indicators, and no single indicator should be used in isolation to make investment decisions. It's crucial to do thorough research and consider multiple factors before buying or selling stocks. Additionally, past market behavior is not indicative of future performance, so always be cautious and exercise prudence.

BoA ML

17 June 2022

The investment bank’s Bull & Bear Indicator—which gives a gauge of sentiment among traders—fell to 0.0 on Thursday from 0.3 a week earlier.

The indicator previously ticked down to zero in previous moments of extreme economic anxiety, BofA said. It previously fell to its lowest level in August 2002 (the dotcom bubble bursting), July 2008 (the Great Recession), September 2011 (the European debt crisis), September 2015 (when China’s economy faltered), and March 2020 (the arrival of COVID in the U.S.).

However, they noted that when the indicator has previously hit zero, unless there has been “a double-dip recession (2002) or systemic event (2008/2011), 3-month returns are strong.”

BofA emphasized that its Bull & Bear Indicator is not intended to be used as a benchmark or a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract.

12 February 2021, 14:38
The median three-month return from a ‘Sell’ signal, of which there have been 12 since 2000, is minus 9% for global stocks and minus 45 basis points or 0.45% for the US 10-year Treasury yield, as investors dump stocks for the safety of US government bonds. https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/record-weekly-inflows-flood-into-global-stocks-with-us-large-caps-most-popular

MAR 17, 2020 12:29PM EDT
Hartnett warned against getting overly excited with that signal. He said the contrarian sentiment signals can be triggered too early at times of an unusual event, such as what investors are seeing now. For example, the index triggered a buy signal in July 2008, two months before Lehman Brothers collapsed.

PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 13 2020 10:45 AM EDT
While the market downdraft has triggered BofA’s buy signals, Hartnett cautioned that its “Bull & Bear” indicator also flashed a buy back in July 2008 — two months before Lehman Brothers collapsed and led to the worst of the financial crisis.

BAML's “Bull & Bear” gauge moved back to 0.7 from 0.8 the week before, showing investor positioning is still "extreme bearish", the bank said.

BofAML said while adding that Bull & Bear indicator holds at 0.7, stays in contrarian “buy” territory. ETMarkets.com|Sep 17, 2019, 07.52 PM IST We (BoAML) remain contrarian bullish as our Sept Fund Manager Survey (FMS) shows only modest improvement in risk appetite. FMS cash levels dropped to 4.7% from 5.1% in Aug (& 5.7% in Jun); BofAML’s Bull & Bear Indicator remains extremely bearish @ 0.7.,

Read more at: //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/71171158.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Read more at: //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/71171158.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Since 2000 to 9/1/2019, the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator has sent 16 “buy” signals, providing a median three-month return for global stocks of 6.3%, and a hit ratio of 10 out of 16.

On January 26, 2018, Hartnett warned that the Bull & Bear indicator had just flashed a sell signal. In case you were prone to being skeptical of that, he reminded anyone unfamiliar that if backtests are any guide, it’s virtually infallible. Here’s the key excerpt from that late January 2018 note:

BofAML Bull & Bear indicator has given 11 sell signals since 2002; hit ratio = 11/11; average equity peak-to-trough drop following 3 months = 12%.

On January 26, 2018,
BAML’s ‘Bull & Bear’ gauge, which takes the temperature of markets, is now flashing overheating warning signals at 7.9, just under the 8 level that BAML recommends selling.

It is the indicator’s highest since March 2013. It has given 11 sell signals since 2002 with a 100 percent hit ratio, BAML said. Average equity peak-to-trough drops in the following 3 months after the signal have been 12 percent they added.
 
 Further inflows into high yield and emerging market debt as well as equity funds would cement the sell signal. A “tactical S&P500 pullback to 2686 points in Feb/Mar (is) now very likely,” BAML’s analysts said.

They also warned a reversal of the dollar’s recent weakness could also spark a sharp correction. A U.S.-Europe FX spat was a trigger of the 1987 stock market crash they said. “Higher dollar “pain trade” = risk-off coming.”

Earnings revisions breadth

Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a client note. "The momentum of earnings revisions breadth like that seen recently is often synonymous with higher equity prices over a 12-month horizon." https://www.businessinsider.com/earnings-revision-breadth-at-highest-rate-in-six-years-2017-5

History suggests when earnings revisions breadth is at its worst, it's typically the best time from a forward-looking medium-term perspective. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357440-global-check-up-earnings-breadth-bad-good

Stock Market Capitalization to GDP for United States

Published: January 6, 2020 7:25 PM UTC

Buffett Indicator Flashes Red for Stocks

Named after the widely-venerated “Oracle of Omaha,” the Buffett indicator reflects Warren Buffett’s characteristically simple thinking about stock values. It’s the total stock market capitalization of the United States relative to U.S. GDP.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB

https://www.ccn.com/buffett-indicator-warns-stocks-doomed-worse-crash-than-2008/

Put/call ratio

A high put/call ratio can indicate fear in the markets, while a low ratio indicates confidence.

the ratio is really volatile; therefore, it seems better to consider also a moving average of the indicator (either simple or exponential) in order to smooth the noise.

Put/C. all ratio 10-day SMA and S&P 500, June 2012-today (Sources: BSIC, Bloomberg). The results a negative relation between the index and our indicator. The graphical evidence is also sustained by statistics, with a negative correlation (-0.44).

The analysis seems to be very effective in providing signals to “trade” the ratio:

– The upper +0.5SD band has always resulted to be a turning point for major movements of the ratio.

– The lower -0.5SD band has done well in most cases.

– When the -0.5SD was crossed down, the -1SD band has acted as a strong dynamic support.

The ratio is currently crossing the static mean at 0.59. SD = 6. so +1SD = 0.65 and -1SD = 0.53.

http://www.bsic.it/putcall-ratio-guide-market-sentiment-sp-500-case/

Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index

Leading indicators: flattening or slowing down? The Conference Board recently released its Leading Economic Index (LEI), which was unchanged in August and has been quite flat for most of the past year. While certain sub-components—such as ISM New Orders and the yield spread—continue to pull the index down; others like unemployment claims and building permits have been positive offsets. Thus, you can see in the following chart, a similar scenario can be seen in the recent surge in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index (BESI), which has shot higher courtesy of data surprising to the upside. Yet, much of that improvement has been concentrated in lagging economic indicators. The blue line represents the Bloomberg Surveys & Business Cycle Indicators Surprise Index, which is a sub-index of the BESI and measures surprises among the leading components. You can see that this has not confirmed the spike in the BESI, which leads us to believe that the excitement may be a bit premature. [Read more about what leading indicators are telling us in Take Me to Your Leader: Analyzing the Latest Leading Indicators.] Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 9/25/2019. The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index shows the degree to which economic analysts under- or over-estimate the trends in the business cycle. The surprise element is defined as the percentage (or percentage point) difference between analyst forecasts and the published value of economic data releases.

Equity, 85 Trillion $

The global economy was $142 trillion in 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/12/05/a-bizarre-trillion-dollar-asteroid-worth-more-than-our-planet-is-now-aligned-with-the-earth-and-sun/?sh=472501d331c9

Date 12/24/2019 2:49:39 PM (MENAFN - FxPro) Global stock markets have been on a torrid run in 2019, adding more than $17 trillion in total value, according to Deutsche Bank calculations. The value of global equities began the year just under $70 trillion but has now surpassed $85 trillion, according to a chart from Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok.

==BoA ML, Suttmeier on Dec. 23, 2018 bear market, suggest correction next 6 months, a bad forecast==

BofA’s latest charts declare bear market, suggest correction will last another six months

Published Sun, Dec 23 20185:00 PM EST Stephanie Landsman @stephlandsman

Two charts point to bear market, suggest correction is deepening Bank of America-Merrill Lynch sees stocks struggling through the first half of 2019.

Stephen Suttmeier, the firm’s chief equity technical strategist, is building his case with two S&P 500 charts. They suggest stocks are in the throes of a bear market and the correction is deepening.

“We are breaking through a massive support on the S&P between that 2,600 and 2,500 range,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “We could see the mid-2,300s on the S&P 500.”

That would be more than a 20 percent decline from the index’s all-time highs hit on Sept. 21. A drop that size falls into the textbook definition of a bear market.

Right now, the Dow and S&P 500 are on pace for their worst year in a decade. They began selling off sharply on Oct. 3, and according to Suttmeier’s math, it could last at least another six months.

“We do think the equity markets are set up to continue this cyclical bear market or bear market, just call it what it is — and correct further, a deeper retracement,” he said.

Despite his gloomy forecast, Suttmeier doesn’t think the downturn will come at the expense of the secular bull market.

Based on historical data, he noted markets have fallen 20 percent or more without being accompanied by a recession. And, this case may be no different.

“You have periods where you trade in ranges,” he said. “You have periods like the ’80s, like the ‘60s and ’70s and the Great Depression area. You also have periods where you are trending up like the 1950 to 1966 time frame – and 1980 to 2000. ... We think we’re in another one of those phases.”

As atypical as it may feel, Suttmeier contends there’s nothing extraordinary about the latest string of deep sell-offs.

“Our view is it’s a garden-variety bear market — not like the 50 percent drawdown we saw in 2007 to 2009 or the one in 2000,” Suttmeier said. “You could have cyclical bear markets, economic expansions [and] contractions in cyclical bull markets.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/21/charts-declare-bear-market-says-correction-could-last-until-next-june.html

Money Flows in and out of equities

“We are sellers-into-strength into vaccine,” he says, based on “peak positioning, peak policy, peak profits likely coming months,” comparing it to the 2018 pattern.

Wised-up market watchers are quick to sneer and jeer when small investors start to cheer a stock rally.

And cheer they did last week, reacting to a clear election result and encouraging news on Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine trials with an emotional burst of buying at Monday’s open, the largest inflow for equity funds in years and one of the biggest jumps in retail-investor optimism on record.

Given that the crowd is known to be wrong at extremes, skeptics last week quickly seized on this evidence that the public perceived “All clear” as a warning that fuel for further market gains was running low.

There’s no doubt that investors who had stayed in a defensive crouch ahead of the “known unknowns” of the presidential election and vaccine-development efforts before finally grabbing for stocks last week on what seemed like a moment of clarity ended up buying much higher than they could have.

When the S&P 500 opened higher by some 3% to start Monday, it was 11% above than it closed just ten days earlier, when all the talk was of “uncertainty” and downside risk. And this, just two weeks after we made the case that investors were fearful enough to set up a late-year rebound attempt. One can understand folks want in on a fourth-quarter rally, but the S&P is already up 6.6% this quarter, more than the average gain for the October-December period.

Yet just because they paid up for having waited doesn’t mean they bought a market top.

The history of such sudden bursts of relief among the public shows they’re not typically the greatest entry points but also far from automatic rally killers.

Nearly $45 billion in net inflows rushed toward equity funds in the latest week, which Bank of America calls an all-time record.

As the chart here shows, the last comparable intake was in January 2018, a month when a furious rally crested in the afterglow of a long-awaited bullish catalyst, the passage of the Trump tax cut weeks earlier. The market soon skidded into a jarring correction, then a choppy sideways phase, before returning to those highs within months.

Bank of America global strategist Michael Hartnett sees these flows as well as the synchronous surge in global equity markets to overbought extremes as a hint of a culmination process for this advance getting underway. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/14/santoli-investors-see-an-all-clear-for-a-reopening-rally-are-they-right-this-time.html

CFNAI Diffusion Index -0.35

The CFNAI Diffusion Index represents the three-month moving average of the sum of the absolute values of the weights for the underlying indicators whose contribution to the CFNAI is positive in a given month less the sum of the absolute values of the weights for those indicators whose contribution is negative or neutral in a given month. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

The next CFNAI will be released: February 24, 2020 8:30 am Eastern Time 7:30 am Central Time https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/cfnai/2020/cfnai-january2020-pdf.pdf

When the Fed expands it balance sheet 1% S&P goes up approximately 1% as well

January 2, 2020 — 10:30 AM EST Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says when the Fed expands it balance sheet 1% S&P goes up approximately 1% as well.

Sharpe ratios ... sectors

Industries with higher historical business cycle regime Sharpe ratios (RSR) have higher regime-dependent expected returns.

See page 31 [32/62] showing long portfolio includes industries in the highest decile based on the Sharpe ratio calculated from past years. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2803585&download=yes

U.S. equity sentiment

U.S. equity sentiment Masanari Takada, macro and quantitative analyst at Japanese brokerage giant Nomura https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/02/26/Photos/NS/MW-IA914_nomura_20200226044301_NS.png?uuid=611c808c-587c-11ea-bd9a-9c8e992d421e

Historically, a fall of that size is good for stocks. “If the market gets the sense that the global economic downturn scenario is excessive and sentiment follows past patterns, the current situation could in hindsight be seen as the darkest day,” Takada said.

CNN Business Greed & Fear

The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index doesn’t make predictions.

Stock market falls faster than it rises due to human psychology and our own emotional overreactions to gain and loss.

The fear of losing money is much bigger than the excitement of gains. This pattern has been observed over and over.

Not only is the pain of loss something investors fear, the pain from accepting they have made a bad decision is almost as painful. With the human brain wired with certain biases, markets tend to react quickly to this fear and pain.

Market Crashes

Event Date 16-day chg Wall Street Crash of 1929 10/29/1929 -33.6% Black Monday 10/19/1987 -31.3% End of Gold Standard 10/05/1931 -26.7% Lehman crisis 11/20/2008 -25.2% World War 2 05/21/1940 -24.6% COVID-19 outbreak 03/12/2020 -20.7% DotCom Bubble 07/23/2002 -19.3% Post-WW2 demand shock 09/10/1946 -16.9% US debt downgrade 08/08/2011 -16.7% Great Financial Crisis 03/04/2009 -13.8% LTCM 08/05/1998 -8.7%

While the market downdraft has triggered BofA’s buy signals, Hartnett cautioned that its “Bull & Bear” indicator also flashed a buy back in July 2008 — two months before Lehman Brothers collapsed and led to the worst of the financial crisis.

S&P 500, Dow Jones fall in a bear market

POSTED BY: MICHELLE JONES MAR 12, 2020, 4:18 PM How much more should the S&P 500, Dow Jones fall in a bear market?

Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Oppenheimer and team released a guide to navigating a bear market earlier this week. In their guide, they considered how far the S&P 500 and Dow Jones should fall in a bear market. They considered structural, cyclical and event-driven bear markets.

Structural bear markets are triggered by financial bubbles and other structural imbalances, which are often followed by some kind of price shock like deflation. Cyclical bear markets are usually related to rising interest rates, impending recessions and declining profits, and they're connected to the economic cycle. Event-driven bear markets are triggered by a on-off shock that doesn't result in a domestic recession, like a war, oil price shock or a technical market dislocation.

On average, structural bear markets fall 57%, last 42 months and take 111 months to get back to their starting point in nominal terms. Cyclical bear markets average declines of 31%, last 27 months and take 50 months to get back to their starting point in nominal terms. Event-driven bear markets fall 29% on average, last nine months and recover in 15 months in nominal terms.

Never sell stocks in a panic

Why long-term investors should never sell stocks in a panic PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 22 202011:15 AM EDTUPDATED MON, MAR 23 20208:01 AM EDT

Pippa Stevens @PIPPASTEVENS13

While it might seem counterintuitive to sit back and relax while stocks post swift and steep losses, for investors with longer-term time frames it typically pays to wait it out. Looking at data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that if an investor missed the S&P 500′s 10 best days in each decade, total returns would be just 91%, strikingly below the 14,962% return for investors who held steady throughout the ups and downs.

“Investors with longer-term investment horizons should remain invested in stocks,” Goldman Sachs said. The adage “keep calm and carry on” might, in the end, be the best advice for investors to follow during times of extreme market volatility such as the present.

While it might seem counterintuitive to sit back and relax while stocks post swift and steep losses, for investors with longer-term time frames it typically pays to wait it out.

Looking at data going back to 1930, Bank of America found that if an investor missed the S&P 500′s 10 best days in each decade, total returns would be just 91%, strikingly below the 14,962% return for investors who held steady throughout the ups and downs.

The firm noted this eye-popping statistic while urging investors to “avoid panic selling,” pointing out that “the best days generally follow the worst days for stocks.”

It’s nearly impossible to time your investing so that you get out at the right time and then get back in at the exact right time to profit from big comeback rallies.

WATCH NOW VIDEO06:03

Most investors still need to be cautious amid coronavirus-drive volatility, says Allianz’s El-Erian Worst market since the 1930s

Still, it can be hard to sit still as stocks march lower. The coronavirus outbreak, which has brought global economies to a near standstill, has sent the major averages tumbling into bear market territory, putting an end to the record bull run that began in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

The pace at which stocks have dropped from their peak is also a record — the fastest in history. Last month, stocks were at all-time highs. Now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are trading 35% and 32% below their records, while the Nasdaq-100 is 28% below its high.

As the declines continue, new record lows are constantly set. The major averages just posted their worst week since the financial crisis. The Dow is tracking for its worst month since 1931, the S&P since 1940. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is pacing for its worst month ever.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106454259-158499223349520200320sp500missingoutbest10daysperdecade.png?v=1584992248&w=630&h=354\

And yet, in the midst of all the selling, there have been some good days mixed in, too. The Dow’s 5 worst single-day point drops have all been this month, but so have the index’s four best days, all of which saw a gain of more than 1,000 points. A similar pattern has played out for the S&P. This month the index has seen its four worst point drops in history, as well as its five largest point gains. As the indices have moved higher over time larger point gains and losses amount to smaller percentage moves, of course, but the numbers are still notable.

At some point, one of those big rallies will mark the turn in this market. If you sell now, you will be left on the sidelines, hurting your long-term returns, the data shows.

One of the factors spooking investors is that, unlike prior periods of economic turmoil such as the financial crisis, this sell-off is not man-made. The Federal Reserve cannot stop the virus.

‘Incredibly bad time’ to sell

As more and more Street strategists and high-profile investors say a recession is largely unavoidable at this point, investors are offloading equities, preferring not to wait around for what could be additional losses.

But this strategy is precisely the opposite of what many say to do during times of volatility.

“It’s an incredibly bad time for people who don’t have to sell to be selling, because they are selling into an avalanche,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, which oversees $2.25 billion.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106449806-158454224877620200318stockmarketwildswings.png?v=1584542290&w=630&h=354

Experts typically advise retail investors to avoid the impulse to time the market, which can be difficult even for professional traders.

Bank of America said that trading over a one-day period is “only marginally better than a coin-flip,” while noting that “the probability of losing money plummets to 0% over a 20-year time horizon.”

Still, retail investors like to try their hand, which can not only lock in losses, but also put them at risk of missing the best days.

Goldman Sachs found that “households,” which they define as retail investors as well as some professionals such as hedge funds, are the only subset of shareholders that have “sold equities during each bear market since 1950.”

This is essentially the opposite of the “buy low, sell high” goal of investing. Time and again, bear markets have proven to be good buying opportunities — it can just take several years for the gains to be realized.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106441696-1584103508195sp500bullbearmarkets.png?v=1584103528&w=630&h=354

For those who can shoulder the added risk, it pays to stay invested.

“Investors with longer-term investment horizons should remain invested in stocks,” Goldman said, while Bank of America noted that “time is money for equities.” The firm added that “for equity investors, the best recipe for loss avoidance is time: as time horizons lengthen, the probability of losing money in stocks has decreased.”

What to do now

Wall Street firms are cutting their growth forecasts for the first and second quarter of 2020, warning about the impact on GDP as the coronavirus-related slowdown rages on. But at this point many still see a recovery in the second half of the year.

And in the meantime, there are a number of ways investors can take advantage of the sell-off in equities, even as the long-term impact of the virus remains unknown.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106445553-158436108009220200316_sp500_peak_trough_recessions.png?v=1584361087&w=630&h=354

“Given the expected pressure on company profits, the spotlight is now on balance sheets,” Citi equity strategist Robert Buckland said in a note to clients Friday. “This is especially relevant for income investors who are tempted by high yielding stocks but want to avoid dividend cutters,” he added. The firm is overweight the typically defensive utilities sector.

Bernstein also said to focus on companies with quality balance sheets and sustainable dividend yields, as well as U.S.-based companies that offer sustained growth potential. The firm highlighted names like Nike and Microsoft, which it believes checks these three boxes.

Given the ongoing uncertainty, Credit Suisse’s HOLT team recommends investors stick with stocks that are on “firm financial footing and capable of weathering a potential recession.” These “safe(r) havens,” as the firm calls them, include companies like Lockheed Martin, Copart and Generac.

Meanwhile, BTIG put together a list of “stocks for the storm,” such as Chipotle Mexican Grill, Thermo Fisher Scientific and REIT name Equity Residential. In a similar vein, JPMorgan identified a basket of “social distancing” stocks that will benefit from the stay-at-home trend. Names include Peloton, Netflix and Activision Blizzard.

But for long-term investors with faith in the American economy, the best strategy is to stay long a market index fund, the data shows.

- CNBC’s Michael Bloom, Nate Rattner and John Schoen contributed reporting.

Corrections of 10% once a year on average

Over time, we found that since the 1930s, if you as an investor sat out the 10 best days of every decade, your returns would’ve been less than 100%, which compares not very favorably to the 15,000% returns you would’ve enjoyed if you’d just stayed invested over that entire period. It’s really a dramatic negative to sell stocks prematurely. History tells us that pullbacks and corrections are the norm. In fact, since the ‘30s, we’ve seen 5% pullbacks occur on average about three times a year, 10% corrections have occurred once a year on average. What we’re feeling right now, while it may feel dramatic and scary, is actually relatively normal on a historical basis. https://ustrustaem.fs.ml.com/content/dam/ML/Articles/pdf/Transcript_Knox.pdf

The worst 30 year total return was 854%

The usual caveats apply here — these numbers are before inflation, taxes or costs are taken into account (although one of the biggest benefits about a longer holding period is that you can reduce the impact of trading costs and taxes on your portfolio). With that disclaimer out of the way, here are a few more interesting long-term stock market stats I found while computing these numbers: The worst total return over a 20 year period was 54%. But the worst 30 year total return was 854%. The standard deviation of annual returns over 20 and 30 year time frames has been remarkably low — just 1.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The volatility in returns has historically fallen off a cliff as you extend the time horizon in the market.

Volatility in the stock market during the 1930s was insane. Not only did the market drop more than 80% during the Great Depression, but during that period there were two separate quarters that saw stocks rise in excess of 80%.

In contrast to the large losses seen in 1930s, the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s produced an amazing run of gains for long-term investors. If you would have invested at any point between 1973 and 1985 you would have earned anywhere from 12-18% per year over the following twenty years. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Annual-SPX.png

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/11/playing-the-probabilities/

Short Interest Investment Strategy

We find abnormal returns (1.11 percent per month) from an investment strategy that

(1) shorts firms with highly favorable analyst recommendations (buy signal) but high short interest (sell signal), and

(2) buys firms with highly unfavorable analyst recommendations (sell signal) but low short interest (buy signal).

Short interest, therefore, appears to capture predictive information that can be used by investors in trading against analysts’ recommendations to increase returns.

SOFTWARE

MicroSoft Excel

https://shortcutworld.com/Excel/mac/Microsoft-Excel_2016_Shortcuts#Frequently_used_shortcuts

Phase Voltage Unbalance and AC Motors

A Voltage Unbalance is also called a Phase Imbalance. Some motor manufacturers require less than 5% current unbalance. In some 800 HP motors in 1,500 ton chillers the digital chillers controls stop the motor upon a 2% Voltage Unbalance., Electric motors tend to trip manual overload safety relays with +4% Voltage Unbalance. The digital controls on modern Air compressors can be set to automatically stop after a 2% Voltage Unbalance. The compressors are to remain stopped until after clean electrical power is restored for a minimum time, say 36 seconds; with the each additional compressor staged at 6 second or longer intervals. By automatically stopping upon low voltage and voltage unbalance, one avoids the unwanted tripping of the overload relays, which require a person to manually reset. It also prevents the digital controls from restarting all of the air compressors at the same exact time, which can trip 1,200 amp main breakers. After market digital programmable three-phase line voltage monitor controllers are available.

Compressed Air Coalescing Filter Performance

Compressed Air Coalescing Filter Performance. These collect liquids, not vapors. The LOCATION means where the Coalescing Filter is relative to Refrigerated Air Dryer. 1 mg/m3 is a weight of oil in a volume of air and is approximately equal to 0.83 ppm by weight.

LOCATION	Solid Particles, microns	PPM	mg/m3	Temperature, typical
Inside	0.01	0.006	0.008	40 deg F
After	3.0	3.6	4.0	75 deg F

Elon Musk

Elon Musk asks each candidate he interviews the same question: "Tell me about some of the most difficult problems you worked on and how you solved them."

Because "the people who really solved the problem know exactly how they solved it," he said. "They know and can describe the little details."

Musk's method hinges on the idea that someone making a false claim will lack the ability to back it up convincingly, so he wants to hear them talk about how they worked through a thorny issue, step by step. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/elon-musk-favorite-job-interview-question-to-ask-to-spot-a-liar-science-says-it-actually-works.html

Word .docx, Apple Pages & pdf

Word.docx to Pages, export to pdf with smart links

You need to generate the pdf by going to 'Save As' and choosing 'pdf' from the 'file formats' menu at the bottom. Below 'file format' you then need to select 'Best for electronic distribution and accessibility' and that will retain all the links. Instead of the default: "Best for printing"

As as pdf. maybe twice. then in word, Adobe "create and share"

Readability in Word

Scanning Your Document for Readability:

Click on the Review tab Click on the Spelling & Grammar button, located in the Proofing group Enabling Readability Statistics (Microsoft Word 2011/2016 – Mac):

Launch Microsoft® Word 2011/2016 Click on the Word menu Click on Preferences Under the Authoring and Proofing Tools section, double-click on Spelling & Grammer Under the Grammar section, make sure that Check grammar with spelling and Show readability statistics are checked Close the Word Preferences window Scanning Your Document for Readability:

Select the pages with text, while excluding the pages with Footnotes. Click on the Review tab Click on the Spelling & Grammar button

Apple Pages

Use the application Apple Pages to export to pdf. Use the GOOD setting for a smaller pdf file size.

Excel, regression

An incomprehensible design flaw by modern standards is that the coordinates of data ranges for variables must be selected by hand for each model, rather than by choosing from a list of variables that are already defined as named ranges. Range names were a feature of Excel as far back as 1993 (the present Name Manager was later introduced in 2007), and they are ideal for use as variable names in statistical analysis performed within Excel, as is done in RegressIt and most other add-ins.

Earnings forecast changes

Merrill Lynch® Forward P/E

Merrill Lynch® Relative valuation by sector regularily publishes the "Forward P/E (Relative)". Consider putting that [weekly/monthly?] data in a spreadsheet to calculate the changes between reports.

S&P Global® | ClariFI® source in "A Quant's Take: [month, year] Highlights" by Morgan Stanley®

ClariFI® [an S&P Global® product] and Morgan Stanley® Research are the "Sources" listed in the Morgan Stanley® monthly chart of estimated earnings by sectors in 

"A Quant's Take: [month, year] Highlights" 
 
MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
Boris Lerner | QUANTITATIVE STRATEGIST | Boris.Lerner@morganstanley.com
Jaiwish Nolan | QUANTITATIVE STRATEGIST | Jaiwish.Nolan@morganstanley.com
Diane Ding, Ph.D. | QUANTITATIVE STRATEGIST | Qian.Ding@morganstanley.com
Michelle M. Weaver | EQUITY STRATEGIST | Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com
 
See related products: Xpressfeed™, Alpha Factor Library, Financials
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/solutions/clarifi-

Stock history data

download up to 10 years C/V/O/H/L historicals as .cvs on most stocks https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/fdx/historical

Definitions

CPI, Consumer Price Index. AHE, Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees.

Global GDP is about $90 trillion. Since March 2020 until May 21, 2021, central banks and governments have flooded markets with some $27 trillion – a third of global gross domestic product ...

Market Timing

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.

The efficient-market hypothesis is an assumption that asset prices reflect all available information, meaning that it is theoretically impossible to systematically "beat the market."

Poor Performance

Market timing can cause poor performance. Select sound, quality managers and give them a reasonable period of time.

Trend Following

After fees, the average "trend follower" does not show skills or abilities compared to benchmarks. "Trend Tracker" reported returns are distorted by survivor bias, selection bias, and fill bias.

Return-Chasing Behavior

At the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, YiLi Chien, Senior Economist wrote about return-chasing behavior. The average equity mutual fund investor tends to buy mutual funds with high past returns and sell otherwise. Buying mutual funds with high returns is called a “return-chasing behavior.” Equity mutual fund flows have a positive correlation with past performance, with a return-flow correlation coefficient of 0.49. Stock market returns are almost unpredictable in the short term. Stock market returns tend to go back to the long-term average. The tendency to buy mutual funds with high returns and sell those with low returns can reduce profit.

Consumer Confidence, Conference Board’s Present Situation Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that major turns in the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index tend to precede corresponding turns in the unemployment rate—particularly at business cycle peaks (that is, going into recessions). Major upturns in the index also tend to foreshadow cyclical peaks in the unemployment rate, which often occur well after the end of a recession. Another useful feature of the index that can be gleaned from the charts is its ability to signal sustained downturns in payroll employment. Whenever the year-over-year change in this index has turned negative by more than 15 points, the economy has entered into a recession.

Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE

The Bank of America’s GLOBAL WAVE and the world's revenue cycle have had a 76% correlation, R2, over a period of 30+ years.

A increasing GLOBAL WAVE is usually

• better for financial sector stocks
• higher bond yields.
• negative for utility stocks.
• rotation to emerging markets and other international equities
• An average increase of 14 percent over the 12 months in the MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) following a trough (lower values) of the Global Wave.

Global waves have an average increase in is two years and an average decline lasts one year. ,

Mutual funds

Mutual fund flows are published by organizations like Investment Company Institute, Lipper, Morningstar, and TrimTabs. They show that flows generally track the overall level of the market: investors buy stocks when prices are high, and sell stocks when prices are low. For example, in the beginning of the 2000s, the largest inflows to stock mutual funds were in early 2000 while the largest outflows were in mid-2002. These mutual fund flows were near the start of a significant bear (downtrending) market and bull (uptrending) market respectively. A similar pattern is repeated near the end of the decade.

This mutual fund flow data seems to indicate that most investors (despite what they may say) actually follow a buy-high, sell-low strategy. Studies confirm that the general tendency of investors is to buy after a stock or mutual fund price has increased. This surge in the number of buyers may then drive the price even higher. However, eventually, the supply of buyers becomes exhausted, and the demand for the stock declines and the stock or fund price also declines. After inflows, there may be a short-term boost in return, but the significant result is that the return over a longer time is disappointing.

Researchers suggest that, after periods of higher returns, individual investors will sell their value stocks and buy growth stocks. Frazzini and Lamont find that, in general, growth stocks have a lower return, but growth stocks with high inflows have a much worse return.

Studies find that the average investor's return in stocks is much less than the amount that would have been obtained by simply holding an index fund consisting of all stocks contained in the S&P 500 index.

For the 20-year period to the end of 2008, the inflation-adjusted market return was about 5.3% on average per year. The average investor managed to turn $1 million into $800,000, against $2.7 million for the index (after fund costs).

Studies by the financial services market research company Dalbar say that the retention rate for bond and stock funds is three years. This means that in a 20-year period the investor changed funds seven times. Balanced funds are a bit better at four years, or five times. Some trading is necessary since not only is the investor return less than the best asset class, it is typically worse than the worst asset class, which would be better. Balanced funds may be better by reason of investor psychology.

Financial advisors often agree that investors have poor timing, becoming less risk averse when markets are high and more risk averse when markets are low, a strategy that will actually result in less wealth in the long-term compared to someone who consistently invests over a long period regardless of market trends. This is consistent with recency bias and seems contrary to the acrophobia explanation. Similarly, Peter Lynch has stated that "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

Proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) claim that prices reflect all available information. EMH assumes that investors are highly intelligent and perfectly rational. However, others dispute this assumption. "Of course, we know stocks don't work that way". In particular, proponents of behavioral finance claim that investors are irrational but their biases are consistent and predictable.

Difference in views on the viability of market timing

Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance, because they do not believe in undervalued or overvalued markets. The efficient-market hypothesis claims that financial prices always exhibit random walk behavior and thus cannot be predicted with consistency.

Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it remains difficult, if not impossible, to predetermine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance, can often become much cheaper afterwards, before then either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.

Proponents of market timing counter that market timing is just another name for trading. They argue that "attempting to predict future market price movements" is what all traders do, regardless of whether they trade individual stocks or collections of stocks, aka, mutual funds. Thus if market timing is not a viable investment strategy, the proponents say, then neither is any of the trading on the various stock exchanges. Those who disagree with this view usually advocate a buy-and-hold strategy with periodic "re-balancing".

Others contend that predicting the next event that will affect the economy and stock prices is notoriously difficult. For examples, consider the many unforeseeable, unpredictable, uncertain events between 1985 and 2013 that are shown in Figures 1 to 6 [pages 37 to 42] of Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Few people in the world correctly predicted the timing and causes of the Great Recession during 2007–2009.

Market-timing software and algorithms

Institutional investors often use proprietary market-timing software developed internally that can be a trade secret. Some algorithms attempt to predict the future superiority of stocks versus bonds (or vice versa), have been published in peer-reviewed journals.

Moving average

Market timing often looks at moving averages such as 50- and 200-day moving averages (which are particularly popular). Some people believe that if the market has gone above the 50- or 200-day average that should be considered bullish, or below conversely bearish. Technical analysts consider it significant when one moving average crosses over another. The market timers then predict that the trend will, more likely than not, continue in the future. Others say, "nobody knows" and that world economies and stock markets are of such complexity that market-timing strategies are unlikely to be more profitable than buy-and-hold strategies.

Moving average strategies are simple to understand, and often claim to give good returns, but the results may be confused by hindsight and data mining.

Curve fitting and over-optimization

A major stumbling block for many market timers is a phenomenon called "curve fitting", which states that a given set of trading rules tends to be over-optimized to fit the particular dataset for which it has been back-tested. Unfortunately, if the trading rules are over-optimized they often fail to work on future data. Market timers attempt to avoid these problems by looking for clusters of parameter values that work well or by using out-of-sample data, which ostensibly allows the market timer to see how the system works on unforeseen data. Critics, however, argue that once the strategy has been revised to reflect such data it is no longer "out-of-sample".

NASDAQ, Dead Cat Bounce between Mar’00 high to Oct’02 low

Table 1: Sell-the-rips Nasdaq “dead cat bounces” between Mar’00 high to Oct’02 low

"Table 1: Sell-the-rips Nasdaq “dead cat bounces” between Mar’00 high to Oct’02 low" "Nasdaq ""dead cat bounces""" "Start" "Weeks" "Rally" "Apr'00" 2 19% "May'00" 8 35% "Aug'00" 4 16% "Oct'00" 1 13% "Nov'00" 2 16% "Jan'01" 3 25% "Apr'01" 7 41% "Sep'01" 15 45% "Feb'02" 2 12% "May'02" 2 10% "Aug'02" 2 18% "Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg"

Independent review of market-timing services

Low expenses and low turnover funds out perform

A 2004 study suggested that the best predictor of a fund's consistent outperformance of the market was low expenses and low turnover, not pursuit of a value or contrarian strategy.

Bull Bear Spread

Yardeni Research, Inc. has data available that covers the reports of the attitudes of U.S. advisors from The Investors Intelligence. A large difference between the percentage bullish vs. bearish indicates more risk.

• The 30% difference is increased risk.
• At 40% difference, consider defensive measures.

On January 16, 2018, Peter Boockvar said that the bull bear spread was an extraordinary level of overboughtness.

Purported market timers ... No better than chance or even worst

Several independent organizations (e.g., Timer Digest and Hulbert Financial Digest) have tracked some market timers' performance for over thirty years. These organizations have found that purported market timers in many cases do no better than chance, or even worse.

See also

• Stock market prediction – Act of trying to determine the future value of a financial instrument traded on an exchange
• Sector rotation
• Style investing
• Stock market cycles
• Market trend – Perceived financial market movement tendency over time
• Asset allocation – Investment strategy
• Stock market prediction – Act of trying to determine the future value of a financial instrument traded on an exchange
• Great Recession in the United States – Major economic downturn in the United States
• Dynamic factor In econometrics, a dynamic factor (also known as a diffusion index) were originally designed to help identify business cycle turning points.

Jobs

Spray Rig Driver, Ingalls, AR

I suggested that when the spray rig breaks the bolts at the rear axle, that we back the rig against a tree so the reverse torque pulls axle back into position. Sometimes, the front bolts would break, which let the axle rotate. The drive shaft universal joints would make a poping sound because of the excessive angles as the rear axle differential was pointing down.

I suggested putting metal cans over the vertical exhaust pipes to keep rain from getting on top of the pistons of the engines when the engine was off. When I worked at a hospital beginning in 1980, I heard that one of the hospital engines was damaged when rain got on the pistons when the engine was off.

DuPont, Textile Fibers Div., Old Hickory, TN

I designed steel rods with neoprene pads and steel plates to restrict and limit the movements of a rotary feeder screw of recycle Typar into an extruder. About 40 years later, I realized that the screw should have been a double flighted screw instead of a single flighted screw. A sheetmetal screw has a single flight, which has unbalanced forces and wobbles at low speeds. A drill bit is a double flighted, which balances the forces, which has dramatically less wobbles at low speeds vs. a single flight.

Wonder Products, Div. of CBS Toys, Collierville, TN

I purchased a 16 pound sledge hammer for the shipping department. Previously, it was difficult to open and close the rolling doors on the railroad freight cars. They said that the 16 pound sledge hammer worked much better than their 8 pound hammer did.

I ordered custom shaped curved extra extra strong (XXS) schedule 160 pipes. Maintenance installed on the hydraulic presses of the plastic injection mold machines. The original piping had leaks at the welded elbows.

I suggested the paint booth vertical cycle speed for the metal horse stands be set to operate at a slower speed than the conveyor to avoid stripping the stands. That was an electrostatic oil paint operation that used 50,000 volts of DC charge to the top mounted metal spinning plate. The metal conveyor and horse bases were grounded.

St. Francis Hospital, 5959 Park Ave., Memphis, TN

• Personnel, promoted Jarvis Sommerville to Supervisor of the Telephone group.
• Thompson Tower, surgery suites and ICU's electrically connected to the Barry Building's better spot network substation transformers. Jim Key managed the design and construction of the Thompson Tower. I did not see those drawings until after completion. Based on my suggestion, Jim Key had Clay Davis et al of Haines Electric company change the electric supply. [[1]]
• Canale Nursing Home. Per my suggestion, because the hurry, the hospital (Jim Key, V.P. et al) moved. the building many feet east of the Lowenbury building so the Canale Nursing Home column footings did not land on the existing underground 8" water main piping. During construction, a separate loop of underground 8" water main piping was installed east of the Canale Nursing Home.
• Canale Nursing Home. After my discovery, the hospital (Jim Key, V.P. et al) moved the south set of fire doors (on floors 2 to 5) north of the stairwell. The original design had the doors south of the stairwell, which left no exit.
• Canale Nursing Home. After my discovery, the hospital (Jim Key, V.P. et al) extended the 2nd floor patient room walls above the glass windows to seal the soffet spaces. The 2nd floor windows were about 3' inboard compared those on the upper floors. Within the building, there were 3' x 4' size openings between rooms, along the east and west sides of 2nd floor.
• City Water Pressure, I wrote a letter the Charles Pickle, VP of MLGW Water Dept. Months later MLGW installed pump(s) north of Park Ave. & the railroad, southwest of the electric substation that boost the water pressure. One summer, the water pressure was so low that the boiler operators used fire hoses connected to fire hydrants to keep the cooling towers filled ... the fire hoses had to be routed below the wood fences because the water pressure was so low that when the hoses were place over the fence that the hoses would kink and block the water flows.
• In about year 1981, I helped discover and fix a plumbing problems in the main kitchen. Usually only a few times a year, during extremely heavy rains, water would rise from the kitchen sink to hit the ceiling. I looked at the drawings and noticed that there was a sanitary sewer vent stack riser pipe in the same vertical chase as a storm water drain pipe. Both pipes were the same size (perhaps 6" or 8" each pipe). I asked Charlie Fesmire to have his crew use a fire hose on the roof of the 4th floor to flood the roof at that roof drain. That caused the same effect ... water hit the kitchen ceiling. Next, we had Joe Lee, (the owner of original plumbing company, B.J. Lee) repipe the roof drain to the correct down pipe and to pipe the sanitary vent stack to the correct 81ipe. Afterwards, there were events with water hitting the ceiling in the kitchen.
• Based on my suggestion, the SFH Respirtory Thearpy Dept. had their medical gas vendor anchor the 30 foot tall oxygen tank (that had steel feet with anchor bolt holes, but at that time did not have anchor bolts). Since that time, I continue to notice equipment that is not anchored. The MLGW policy seems to be not to require anchoring their pad mounted transfomers or switches at customer sites. (Iben Browning received notoriety for his erroneous prediction that a major earthquake would occur on the New Madrid Fault around December 2 and 3, 1990.)
• O'Ryan Bldg, per my suggestion has 2 freight elevators to help moving doctors in and out.
• SFH surgery roof cooling tower pump strainer, I added an ALARM in the HVAC controls to signal when the pump amperage decreased with the message to "CHECK and/or CLEAN the pump Strainer".
• SFH ethlyene oxide roof exhaust fan, I added an ALARM in the HVAC controls to signal when the fan amperage decreased with the message to "CHECK and/or REPLACE the Fan V-Belt". (At FedEx, at 16 Air Handlers the HVAC mechanics switched from Fan V-Belts on each 100 HP fan motor to a timing belt with a slanted herribone style teeth. The slanted herribone style teeth rolls ON without making the slapping siren noises of plain timing belts on variable speed drives. These work best with two sets of VFDs, one operating, and one alternate VFD, because a conventional motor starter with non-split drive belts on those 100 HP motors temporarily bends the motor mounts during motor starts. https://www.goodyearrubberproducts.com/top-100-products/Goodyear-Eagle-PD-belts/Goodyear-Eagle-PD-belts.asp)
• SFH 17th Floor, outside air intakes with six sets of Wing(tm) vertical steam preheat coils ... there are (were) two pneumatic damper actuators. I discovered that these actuators were binding against each other ... one has a positioner and the other actuator was driven by the input signal to the positioner. We made corrections so the positioner output signal went to both actuators.
• Policies and Procedures, I wrote the first edition and later revisions.

Suggestions

• Diesel Tank Biocides, add sample diesel fuel biocides. See http://www.hpcdfuel.com/pdf/DOWfuel_training.pdf

• Power House Natural Gas Security Valves install a bypass pipe with a push button to open valve

... install a bypass pipe with a push button to open valve (normally spring closed valve) between the inlet and outlet of the security valve can let the upstream and downstream pressure can be equalized on both sides of the security valve, so it can be reset.

One Friday night around 11 PM, when the outside temperature was near -13 degrees F. https://www.memphisweather.net/alltime-records.shtml there was one Babcock & Wilcox boiler (rated at 60,000 pounds of steam per hour at 125 psig) firing at 60%, when an electrical power blink tripped the boiler OFF (via the flame scanner). That event caused the electric motor operator natural gas valve to shut quickly, which caused the flowing natural gas to stop quickly, which caused a pressure spike, which tripped both the Security Valves. The Security Valves do not close tight and with no boilers ON, there was natural gas pressure showing at the gauges at the boilers. When trying to light the boiler, the gas pressure would drop to zero and fail to go into "low fire." The boiler operator (Herman Mitchel) and others repeatedly reset the Security Valve but could not restart any boiler. Apparently, as the upstream and downstream block valves were opened (too quickly) the Security Valves would trip closed each time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/TN/Memphis/extreme-annual-memphis-low-temperature.php

Lowest temperature recorded at Memphis each year Mininum °F, Fahrenheit

            12	    	16-Jan-09
            14	    	22-Dec-08
            18	    	February 16, 2007 +
            16	    	December 08, 2006 +
            18	    	9-Dec-05
            15	    	25-Dec-04
            10	    	24-Jan-03
            18	    	March 04, 2002 +
            11	    	January 03, 2001 +
            12	    	December 22, 2000 +
            12	    	5-Jan-99
            18	    	12-Mar-98
             8	    	11-Jan-97
             4	    	February 04, 1996 +
            13	    	10-Dec-95
             9	    	19-Jan-94
            16	    	18-Feb-93
            14	    	16-Jan-92
            19	    	February 16, 1991 +
            12	    	24-Dec-90
            -4	    	22-Dec-89
             6	    	February 12, 1988 +
            19	    	January 27, 1987 +
            11	    	27-Jan-86
            -4	    	20-Jan-85
             8	    	19-Jan-84
             0	    	25-Dec-83
             0	    	17-Jan-82
            11	    	20-Dec-81
            16	    	1-Feb-80
             9	    	9-Feb-79
            14	    	6-Feb-78
             8	    	January 17, 1977 +
             9	    	31-Dec-76
            17	    	13-Jan-75
A few dozen maintenance people responded to the Hospital, inculding Jim Key, V.P., Charlie Fesmire, Tom Lemmons, and others. Perhaps as long as 45 minutes to an hour after the boilers stopped, Tom was able to cold start a boiler using paper, oiled rags, and diesel fuel (not natural gas).

Security Valve, a type of an Automatic Shut-Off valve (ASVs): used to stop the flow of natural gas upon sudden pressure changes. Increased Pressure or Decreased Pressure closes the valve (without using any external power sources). Installing a bypass pipe with a push button to open valve (normally spring closed valve) between the inlet and outlet of the security valve can let the upstream and downstream pressure can be equalized on both sides of the security valve, so it can be reset. Security valves are used at schools, hospitals, prisons, and other hard to evacuate buildings.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_valves#Specific_types 

https://www.landisgyr.com.au/webfoo/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/IPS+Valve+Brochure.pdf

BYPASS, Natural Gas Security Valve
In the event that the shut-off valve has closed, the upstream and downstream pressure must first be equalized before opening the valve manually. By installing a bypass with a push button valve between the inlet and outlet side of the shut-off valve, and by opening the push button valve, the upstream and downstream pressure can be equalized. The valve can be opened by means of the resetting using a standard spanner or key which is supplied with each security valve. In the case of small pressure differences, a bypass is not necessary (max. 0.5 bar). 2" and 3" connections are fitted standard with connecting points (¼" NPT) and at extra charge can be provided with a bypass. 1" connections can be fitted with connection points on special request.

• Boiler Controls

... have the boiler manufacturer upgrade the controls to ride through electrical power blinks in a manner that is approved by the insurance carrier. Typically a boiler factory provided UPS battery supply to power the flame scanner with an time delay interlock that stops the boiler after a few seconds if the Forced Draft Fan loosed power.
https://www.babcock.com/en/about Babcock & Wilcox
https://cleaverbrooks.com/about-us Cleaver Brooks 
https://www.powereq.com/nebraska-boiler CB Nebraska Boiler

• Water & Steam Treatment Chemicals

ChemTreat. https://www.chemtreat.com

• Engineering, Local

Haltom Engineering (Memphis, TN), Jeff Haltom https://haltomengineering.com

CS3 (Mid-South Controls)

For a hospital, I created a program that set an WARNING signals when there was reduced electrical amperage signals by an ethylene oxide roof exhaust fan or by a cooling tower pump. Belt driven fans use less amperage when the belts slip, which causes the fan to run slower and to move less air. When the water strainer at a cooling tower pump gets dirty, then less water moves and that lets the water pump motor use less amperage. Less water flow can increase the condensing pressure and temperature in a chiller and can reduce the cooling capacity of chillers, the efficiency, and can cause a chiller to trip OFF.

For a university, I created a program that set an WARNING signal upon a loss of communication that lasted longer than 10 minutes. The WARNING signal was needed to ensure reliable communications with buildings that contained live animals that were in a research laboratory. Some studies intended to monitor animals for many years. If an HVAC system failed during nights, weekends, or holidays then there was a risk that some animals could die before a person would discover the HVAC has failed.

At a private doctor owned building I rewrote a program to stage (1) 80 ton and (1) 128 ton water cooled direct expansion recip compressors. 

Perhaps 20 years after the building was built, (2) surgey rooms were installed.  A a chilled water system should have been installed when the surgery rooms were added. A chilled water buffer tank of 1,200 gallons would allow precise smooth control of the cooling air to the surgery rooms. Chiller manufacturers recommend a specific volume of water per ton of chiller capacity to maintain water temperature stability. These recommendations range from 3 to 5 gallons of system volume per ton of chiller capacity when used in a comfort cooling application, to system volumes of 6 to 10 gallons per ton when used in a process cooling application where temperature stability is critical.

Two surgery rooms operating with supply air temps target set point was for about 55 degrees F. 

If the air handler supply air temperature was at 53 degrees F, then there was risks of having liquid refrigerant flow into and damage the reciporcating compressors.

The controls were set as follows.

* 80 ton chiller starts with 40 tons of capacity. At that stage, The (2) electric unloader valves were open (unloaded). Each time additional capacity was needed then one more stage was allowed to add capacity. 

A PID Loop output changed the "pulse width modulated" (PWM) signal allowing the next stage to be active and to be inactive (with a minimum "inactive" time of 20 seconds and a minimum active time of 6 seconds). The minimum times were intended to reduce the wear of the solenoid unloading valves. As the PID Loop output increased, then the time intervals of the PWM signal so that the unloading valves were closed more of the time. As the PID Loop output decreased, then the time intervals of the PWM signal so that the unloading valves were open more of the time. There were not maximum times for each solenoid valve to be load or unload the compressor. 

When added refrigerant cooling was available, then the air handler supply air temperature would falling at higher rates, and the PID Loop proportional band decreased to smaller values at higher rates. When the supply air temperature was slowing increasing, then the PID Loop proportional band was set to a larger value 

1. to provide slightly more steady temperatures,
2. to minimize the ON OFF cycling of the solenoids valves and
3. to minimize the START STOP of compressors.

I set an interstage sequence Function block diagram with a longer stage up time delay and a much shorter stage down time delay. The quick stage down was to lower the risks of compressor damage. The slower stage up was to minimize the wear and tear of starting the stopping compressors.

FedEx Express, 3131 Democrat Rd., Memphis, TN

Package Sorting

Small Package Sort System (SPSS)

Based on my comments, FedEx installed about 20 high speed automatic outside doors and plastic wind barrier to reduce the wet, humid, warm air movements from the first floor to the second and third floors. The humid air was condensing on photo cells, chutes, etc. The condensation caused errors and faults.

Sort Air Cylinders and 4-way Valves

Based on my comments, the FedEx Sort Repair Shop switched to using silicon grease to coat the seals and o-rings. The silicon grease helps resist grease wash away by the gylcol oils from air compressors.

Bulk Truck Input Canopy

I worked in the Bulk Truck Input Canopy during the summer of 1997 while UPS was on strike (a USP Brown Out). I took Kewal Gupta to the Bulk Truck Input Canopy) and based on my comments, FedEx moved the steel support posts to out_board positions relative to the wings on the lower Non-conveyable packages conveyor belt. The original posts were just outside of the 5' wide conveyor belt and at the lowest in_board part of the 2' wing sheetmetal sloped wings that are outboard of the conveyor belt. At times, some long packages (such as curtain rods) got hung or bend and damaged by the original posts.

Conveyor Belt changing while using pull Vectran ropes

Based on my comments, FedEx began using Vectran ropes to pull old conveyor belts when replacing conveyor belts. Previously, FedEx used nylon ropes. The nylon ropes stretched and occassionly an old conveyor belt would tear apart which sometimes caused the nylon ropes and the 20 pound steel clamp attached to the part of the conveyor belt that tore apart to sling about (almost like a stretched rubber band). There was danger when the 20 pound clamp fly about.

Old Hub Building Flooding Reduced by cleaning an underground 24" Storm Water Drain System

Based on my comments, UpChurch Plumbing, a contractor, used a vacuum truck to clean a set of 2 catch basins, and a 24" underground Storm Water Drain pipe under a steam tunnel to Hangar 7. The 24" underground Storm Water Drain pipe is in a inverted siphon arrangement.

Old beer can showing punches from a churchkey

Early metal drink cans had no tabs; they were opened by a can-piercer or churchkey, a device resembling a bottle opener with a sharp point. The can was opened by punching two triangular holes in the lid—a large one for drinking, and a second smaller one to admit air.

Hub Roof Leak, ERS 1 at ERS 2 roof Expansion Joints

Based on my comments, at the roof expansion joints between ERS1 and ERS2, FedEx installed a John Manville type roof expansion joints (similar to those on the SPSS roof, see https://www.jm.com/content/experience-fragments/jm/products/en/commercial_roofing/specialty_roofing_pr/expansion-joint-covers---style-cf---curb-to-curb/expansion-joint-covers---style-cf---curb-to-curb/_jcr_content/root/xfproductview/1/xftabcontent/rightOne/image.img.jpg/jm) to replace sheetmetal caps. The sheetmetal caps had been attached with screws into a wood parapet. The wood parapet was a stack of (10) 2"x10" wood planks. Sheetmetal cannot make the two separate buildings to move together as a single building.

Years before that work, in the Sort Area, a series of permanent roof gutters and a plastic tent with a drain hose had been installed.

The ERS1 building is 300' long East West and moves independently of the ERS2 building that is also 300' long. ERS1 and ERS2 move diffently sometimes because of

• outside temperature changes of 100 F or more;
• wind speeds and wind directions

The summer temperatures on the roof can reach 110 F, while the winter temperatures drop below 10 F.

Green Hub Building Slotted Drain Inlets to divert Jet Fuel Spills and Storm Water

Based on my comments, FedEx installed Slotted Drain Inlets to divert Jet Fuel Spills and Storm Water at a minimum of 50 feet beyond the building.

Mechanical

HVAC

Electrical Phase Voltage (monitor) Controllers

Pete Cassdras and Ron Saylor told me that they added Phase Voltage (monitor) Controllers on Roof Top Units. The controllers immediately stopped the refrigeration compressors when the electricity blinked, or failed. The timer in the controller was set to keep the compressors OFF until stable power had been available for about 5 minutes. We set the Sort Air Compressors to staggered restart times of 36, 42, 48, 54, and 60 seconds.

Chiller, Air Cooled with remote indoor evaporator

Anchorage, AK Flight Training Simulator Building now has outdoor air cooled chiller with remote indoor evaporator. The refrigerant piping from outdoors to the indoor remote evaporator does not freeze. This allowed the indoor chilled water system to continue to operate with 25% glycol, instead of changing to the thicker 50% glycol.

Chiller, Air Cooled controls to 5 times fewer starts per year

MEMH Security Screening has a TRANE 130 ton air cooled chiller that uses 6 compressors. The TRANE installation manual seemed to be missing a paragraph. The manual covered chillers of size 30 tons to 130 tons. But the set up instructions appeared to apply only the 40 ton chillers. Mike Bryant and Patrick Simmons changed the settings by

• doubling the proportional band (the default was for about a 7 degrees drop between the entering the the leaving chilled water, but this chilled was designed for a 14 degree drop)
• tripling the time interval of the intergral gain setting because the capacity of the chiller was about 3 times larger than a default chiller size of 40 tons.

Chillers, Project (2) 750 tons chillers to replace (2) 550 ton chillers

Based on my suggestions, FedEx designed a project to replace (2) 550 ton chillers with (2) 750 ton chillers. Currently that project is on hold. The proposed 1,500 tons of capacity is intended to extended the life of the (2) 1,500 chillers at the SPSS building, and to provided extra capacity upon a failure of the one of SPSS chillers.

Chiller Water Isometric Drawing of the MEM Hub buildings

I made an Isometric Drawing of the Chilled Water piping at the MEM Hub buildings. The drawing is an training aid. It shows the locations of most of the chilled water piping's major isolaton block valves as well the chillers and pumps and the capacity of the chillers and pumps.

Avoided the following product

Avoided Water cooling of condensers

FedEx refrained from acquiring water cooling of condensers based on my research and efforts. The proposal was to a externally mounted water cooled air mesh on the condensers of air-cooled chillers and roof-mounted units.

Avoided polarized oil additives in refrigerant compressors

FedEx refrained from acquiring polarized oil additives thanks to my research and efforts. Significant compressor and system manufacturers from all over the world have not endorsed or approved the use of polarized oil additives.

Compressed Air

Air Compressors using PAO lubricating oil

Based on my comments (about a research study test by Parker), FedEx installed (9) 100 HP and (5) 75 HP air compressors that operated with a PAO lubricating oil, instead of a PAG glycol lubricating oil. Parker ran tests that shows the PAG glycol oil was removing the mineral grease from the seals and O-rings in the pneumatic valves and air cylinders.

Air Compressors staged delayed automatic restarts

Based on my recommendations, rooms with multiple air compressors were set with staged staggered delays, say of 30, 36, 42, 48 and 54 seconds. This is intended to avoid nuisance tripping of 800 amp and 1,200 amp main breakers, as otherwise the default settings of digital controls would trigger (5) 100 horsepower motors to start at exactly the same instant, which each motor pulls up to 600% of its running amps current during the motor starts. The first start at 30 seconds in intended for nearly all of the utility recloser actions to finish before an attempt is make to restart any 100 HP motors. The MLGW utility seems to have its reclosers times set near ... 20 cycles first reclose; 3 to 5 seconds for 2nd reclose; and 25 seconds for the third reclose; afterwards with it circuit remains tripped then an operator may later make manual reclose attempts. The Atlas Copco air compressors can equipped with voltage and phase imbalance controls with adjustable settings for time delays. At the Memphis Hub International air compressor room, we added Phase Voltage Controllers that successfully stopped 4 air compressors before their overload relays tripped, and allowed successful automatic restarts after a voltage phase imbalance returned to normal voltages.

Air Compressors capacity is now 900 HP, but was 750 HP

Based on my comments, there are now (9) 100 HP Atlas Copco air compressors that replaced (10) 75 HP Ingersoll Rand air compressors in the East and West Primary mechanical rooms.

Air Dryers with Cold Coalescing Air Filters

Based on my comments, FedEx installed five Air Dryers with the optional Cold Coalescing Air Filters in the East Primary and in the West Primary mechanical rooms.

Refrigerated compressed air dryers with internal cold coalescing filters are rated to leave the remaining oil content as low as 0.008 mg/m3, which is far less than coalescing filters that are downstream of air dryers, because the cooled compressed air is reheated by the incoming air. Larger refrigerant dryers have air-to-air heat exchanger between warm incoming air and chilled outgoing air. Cooled oil and water fogs coalesce much better in a coalescing filter at the cold temperatures than one in the warmer oil and water vapors located downstream of the air dryer air-to-air heat exchanger.

Compressed Air Isometric Drawing of the MEM Hub buildings

I made an Isometric Drawing of the Compressed Air piping at the MEM Hub buildings. The drawing is an training aid. It shows the locations of most of the compressed air major isolaton block valves as well as most of the key compressed air condensate drip legs.

Building house #s and Street Addresses

I helped MLG&W assign many, perhaps a few dozens, of Building house #s to new buildings. I helped MLG&W assign one new street name "Technocrat Lane." MLGW asked that FedEx use only street address house numbers, not use letters as suffixes to identify buildings.

My suggested 4-digit room numbers were used on about 100 pilot sleep rooms were added. Each corridor had the same lower right hand 2-digits of numbers on the east end. The left hand 2-digits were in sequence, i.e., 4100's, 4200's, etc. The showers and restrooms were grouped southwest of the sleeping rooms. A corridor along the west side connected between the showers and the sleep room corridors. This was intended to help those returns from the showers, possibly in bathrobes, find their assigned sleep room.

Aircraft Operations

Aircraft Hangars

Based on Bob Stockbridge (retired electrian & liasion) recommendations and my verbal and written comments and drawing sketches showing the crane with the attached catwalk, FedEx installed:

* catwalks attached to bridge cranes to allow access to repair overhead lights at MEM hangar 26. 

The bridgecrane manufacturer listed an option to add standard narrow catwalk. The project designers, architects, suppliers etc. provided catwalks are  wider and have sets of stairs that can roll along small rails on one side of the catwalks. On the stairs, the top handrail has hinged for lowering to miss  the overhead steel trusses. The stairs to the upper mobile plateforms allow techancians to upgrade, replace, maintain the high bay lights and ballasts.

Maintenance rents a 150 foot JLG Lift truck to reach the 2nd row from the south row of lights cannot be reached from the bridgecrane catwalk (as the catwalk in on the north side of the bridgecrane).  Hangar 26 has about 10 rows of lights. The evenly spaced lights provide better lighting in the hangar 26 bay give better than the lighting in Hangar 12. Hangar 12 has has lights hanging over the handrails of the two fixed catwalks in the trusses  ... (each of the 2 catwalks have 2 rows of lights ... so a total of 4 rows). 
 
 Bob Stockbridge had taken me to see the MEM Hub International building bridgecrane which has an attached catwalk. There are steel beams that cross about 40 inches above that catwalk, so it is not nearly as easy to cross as the two bridgecrane catwalks in Hangar 26. 

Based on my comments, FedEx installed

* MEM hangar 26 doors the same 88 foot of vertical clearance that matches the Airbus factory in Toulouse, France. Based on my comments (and quotes from phone conversations with Seth Kohn of Flemming Steel), FedEx installed hangar doors with 88 foot clearance to allow the Airbus A380 Freighter aircraft. The A380 tail height was 79'-10" loaded, and 81'-10" unloaded with a collapsed nose gear strut. Sometimes aircraft tail heights get taller. For example, Boeing 747 tail height became 2' taller for the B747SP, (because of its shorter length, the tail was higher to extend more above the wind effects from the wings and flaps. Over a span of 30 years, sometimes, aircraft get taller, longer, and wider. The parking gates for Boeing 777 Freighters are spaced 300 feet on centers.

* water flushing nozzles and rounded bottom in the (8) floor trenches to reduce odors, etc. in the trenches.

* about (40) small floor drains spaced along the 5 floor rails for the 400' wide hanger doors. The floor drains removed rain water to avoid ice and rust at the rails.

* a slightly higher ramp elevation just north of the northwest section of the Ground Run Up Enclosure (GRE) and directly east of the front of the hangar. This extra elevation (more than the original drawing showed) will keep any potential jet fuel spill flow at least a distance of more than 50 feet from the hangar (as required by the NFPA).

Aircraft Shops

Based on my verbal and written comments, the Aircraft sheetmetal shop built an portable rolling oven to heat composite aircraft parts. I suggested being portable to reduce inspections by the electrical building inspectors. I suggested external motors be mounted a few feet above the roof to spin vertical shafts with fan blades below the ceiling of the oven. The oven look large enough to cook 4 or 5 steers (cows) hanging vertically.

Aircraft Offices

During a cold winter ... about year 2000, we finally decided that sewer stink odors were getting thru a "dry" "P-Trap" that is above the ceiling at a Liebert DataMate computer room air conditioner. We installed an electronic timer "trip primer" to added water to avoid the dry "P-Trap" and sewer stink odors.

Gas Station, 20,000 gallon underground tanks

Underground tanks (sizes of 20,000 gallon) for diesel and gasoline were installed per my recommendation. The previous location had 12,000 gallon tanks; with 10% for expansion, the maximum was 10,800 gallons ... so the tank level needed to drop below 4,000 gallons for the tank to receive a full load of 8,000 gallons of new fuel. At the former gas station, a few days before one Christmas, during an ice storm, FedEx needed gasoline. Some of the suppliers had frozen air brakes on some trucks ... and by operator error ... diesel fuel was put into the gasoline tank ... which triggered FedEx vehicle maintenance to remove the diesel fuel from gasoline vehicles.

Natural Gas Seismic Valves

My recommendation to install a 55 psig natural gas pressure regulator at Tchulahoma Drive installed by a project. That allows conventional 60 psi maximum seismic shut off valves to be installed at Tchulahoma Drive to stop natural gas flow to several buildings, and it lower the gas pressure from 82 psig to 55 psig in hundreds of feet of roof mounted natural natural gas piping.

US Constitution Amendments proposals

All of the following becomes effective, say 60 years, after passed by Congress and the States. Selected provision become effective sooner.

Amendments to the Constitution

Congress, the Executive Branch, and the Council of Review may approve changes to the Constitution by two majority votes of each group that are space more than 8 years apart. States shall not be involved with the approving changes to the Constitution.

Justice

Law Enforcement as a 4th Branch of Government

The Law Enforcement shall become a fourth branch of Government. The Law Enforcement branch shall only be subject to review by the combined efforts of the Executive Branch with the Judicial Branch. The top two levels of the Law Enforcement shall have term limits that match those of the Executive Branch.

Counsel of Review

The Counsel of Review and its actions as the Court of Ethics & Conduct are not subject to review by any other branch of government, except by a 3/4 vote by congress, the Supreme Court, the Law Enforecment Branch and the Executive Branch. Previous actions may be changed later by the Court of Ethics & Conduct.
  
Concerning complaints of misconduct that are alleged to have been committed by an elected or appointed official, justice, judge, or candidate for office (including Grievances Against Supreme Court Justices at federal, state, and local levels).

Disciplinary counsel shall be randomly selected from career military counsels with a minimum of 8 years of experience, with an above average rating, with the selections weighted in favor of those age 30 to 55, with 40% from the US Navy, and 60% born as females. No counsel shall serve beyond age 60. The Chief counsel shall be the female nearest the median age of the group. The names of those on the counsel shall be Top Secret and not available to other any branches of government.

Of the Nobel Prize winners (that less than 55 years old), up to four of the more recent Nobel Prize winners (whenever and as selectively as each chooses on a case by case basis) shall have the option to serve as full members of the Disciplinary counsel. Nobel Prize winners are not eligible to serve as the Chief Justice. 

Committee Chairmen (sub-Committee, etc.) shall be a females that are those nearest the median age of the group. 

Judgements by the Court of Conduct & Ethics cannot be appealed, and are subject only be changed by Constitutional Amendments.

The Court of Conduct & Ethics has the authority to make judgements including the death penalty, cruel and unusual punishments, dismemberments, and life time imprisonment in foreign countries, etc. including places similar to the Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba, as well as removal of the benefits of legal council, clergy, family, voting, public office, work as of for a vendor to any private or government organization, and also suspension from office during and after investigations.
http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/LegalResources/Rules/government/GOVJUD.pdf

During each 12 month span, for up to 3/4 of the cases, the Court of Conduct & Ethics may elect the seal the records of its processes, deliberations, and votes (like a Grand Jury) for periods up to 30 years. The votes by individuals shall remain secret.

The a select sub-committee of the active 11 females of the U.S. House of Representatives is limited to removing no more than 20% of the Members of the Court of Conduct & Ethics, every 6 months (with a vote of 50% vote). The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall seek and select 33 volunteers females of the U.S. House of Representatives to serve. For each case, of the 33 members, the Court of Conduct & Ethics shall randomly select 11 as active and 22 as a mirror jury members. Only the Court of Conduct & Ethics shall have access to the deliberations and votes by the 33 volunteer sub-committee members.

The Court of Conduct & Ethics is limited to removing no more than 10% of the members of Congress every 3 months.
 During each 12 month span, the Court of Conduct shall assign 
 no more than 30% of the members of Congress to terms of 6 years,
 no more than 30% of the members of Congress to terms of 4 years, and
 the other members of Congress shall serve terms of 2 years.
 
The Court of Conduct & Ethics is limited to removing no more than 20% of the members of Court of Conduct & Ethics every year.
 
The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall imprison (terms shall not exceed 8 years) or otherwise punish those leaving office who fail to provide complete, comprehensive assistance to the new office holders for the next 3 months.
 
The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall select or reselect all members of the Supreme Court every year. 

The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall eject judges, elected officials, appointed persons or government employees that receive free admissions to events, free rides on private jets or vehicles, or perks that are not available to all of the general public.
 
Candidates for office of the Court of Conduct & Ethics shall be elected every 4 years with staggered terms of 12 years. The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall select three panels of candidates; during the general elections, every 4 years, the public shall vote for one of the three panels. The panels shall be of the following characteristics:
  consist of half born as female
  at least one randomly career employee (with an exceptional rating) from each of the following organizations: the NSA, the CIA, the FBI, the Congressional Office of the Budget, the State Department, the Navy, the Army, the Air Force, the Human Resources Department, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
  
The Court of Conduct & Ethics shall have the rights regarding staff, judges, elected and appointed officials, and in-laws, siblings, and all descendants of their grand-parents and the all descendants of their in-laws grand-parents ... including the rights to impose or reject actions to

• suspend without pay, benefits, or access to their place of employment those indicted by federal, state, or military courts
• remove candidates from local, state, and federal elections,
• during and or after elections remove up to 30 electoral votes from candidate(s),
• immediate suspension local, state or federal employees, or elected or appointed officials,
• immediate removal from office,
• immediate death,
• immediate prison, solitary confinement, or house confinement for unlimited terms,
• immediate bans on talks or actions that are appear in the press,
• immediate life-time bans from any paid work by any government
• immediate end of all pay, pensions, health care insurances, life insurances, and all other government provided benefits to any ocal, state or federal employees, or elected or appointed officials.

Any elected official that fails to be re-elected to the same position shall be eligible as a candidate for a higher office, but shall not be eligible for any offices at the same or lower levels of any government.

Pardons, Paroles, Appeals, and Secret & Classified Info

After this Amendment is passed,

• Only people that have a TOP SECRET rating shall be allowed to run for Congress or the White House, or the be appointed as government employees.

• Elected officials shall only be shown "eyes only" Secret and Top Secret Information in the presence of a minimum of 3 members of one of the commissions of Secret Information that do not report to the White House or Congress.

• Elected or appointed officials shall not be involved with the placement of military bases, units, or with the selection of contractors or the managing, directing, controlling (administration) for any government works, projects, etc.

• Except for actions a panel of judges, no elected official shall grant a pardon, parole, clemency, commute, waiver, delay, or alter any Court's sentence of defendants. Governments can change laws so that future and past actions are no longer crimes for all criminals.

• All previous actions by elected official that granted a pardon, parole, clemency, delay or a reduction of a sentence shall be deemed void, and those criminals shall be resume their prison terms, punishments, be arrested, stand at trial, etc. These reverses pardons granted to the draft dodgers who fled to Canada during the Vietnam war, as well as pardons of dead people.

Except for the Judges that were appointed by officials of a different political party, no elected or appointed official shall pardon, parole, commute, waiver, delay, or alter any Court's sentences of defendants, but those who were regular members of the same political party in the years before the conviction.

No Judges with less than 12 years of service shall be involved with cases that consider paroles or pardons. No Judges with less than 8 years of service shall be involved with cases that consider Appeals of Convictions.

No Judges shall be make ruling in cases of individuals of the same political party.

No elected official, military, FBI, CIA, NSA, etc. officials shall be able to declassify secret & classified information, or remove classified information from the direct control of career military, FBI, CIA, NSA, etc. officials. Only commissions of Secret Information of former employees with terms that exceed the current President's term by 4+ years, made of the former military, FBI, CIA, NSA, etc. officials shall be authorized to declassify secret & classified information.

Trials

"Trial by Jury"

In Jury Trials, all of the Jury and all of the people in the Court, (except for the defendant, prosecutor, plaintiff, and witnesses), shall have been born as females and between ages 35 and 55.

The defendant and prosecutor shall not know the identity of the judges or the jury. The Judges shall not know the jury members names or faces.

The judges and the jury shall be randomly selected from pools of those that have special experience with the crime being prosecuted. Except during deliberations, Jury members shall be paid at the same per diem rates as 1/4 of the rate of the judges. Professional jury members shall be rated by the judges, and for later cases of similar crimes, the professional jury members shall be favored for selection over rookie members of future jury.

Violent Crimes

Those charged for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault shall be tried by 3 Judges.

Trials with 3 Judges

Judges in Trials with 3 Judges may disbar any attorney or law firm for 7 years or for life without stating any cause. No appeals shall be available to the disbarred attorney or law firm. Disbarred attorney or law firm shall not appear in any court room.

Preponderance of Evidence & Reversed Burden of Proof

A Preponderance Of The Evidence or the Reversed Burden of Proof shall be the standard of proof for all cases. The Beyond a Reasonable Doubt shall never be used in any cases.

Reversed Burden of Proof

Strict Liability Offenses: While not entirely "reversed burden of proof," strict liability offenses are a related concept. These offenses do not require proof of intent or culpability, and the accused might need to prove a defense or due diligence to avoid conviction. Examples can include certain environmental violations or minor traffic offenses.

Fraud: when accusations of physical harm, threats of harm, conspiracy, coercion, human trafficking, stealing government, personal or company secrets, computer hacking, drug possession, drug sales, illegal weapons possession, tax evasion, fraud, statements, claims, positions, proposals, arise then individuals are required to prove the legitimacy of their innocence.

Tax Evasion and Fraud: In some instances, tax laws or financial regulations might require individuals to prove the legitimacy of certain transactions or assets, especially when accusations of tax evasion or fraud arise.

Certain Environmental and Regulatory Offenses: In some jurisdictions, environmental regulations or specific regulatory laws related to consumer protection or product safety might place the burden of proving compliance on the accused. For instance, a company accused of selling contaminated food might need to prove that their products were safe.

Weapons and Drug Offenses: In a few legal systems, especially in relation to weapons possession or certain drug offenses, the accused might need to prove that they had a legitimate reason or authorization for possessing the item.

Jury Information

The Jury shall only be presented with written statements by the defendant, their lawyers, witnesses and plaintiff/prosecutor, and with Labeled "marked" photos, graphics, and limited videos that have been reviewed by the panel of Judges.

The panel of Judges shall select a limited series of questions that each Jury member shall answer, ... with the default answers being initially set a "neutral".

The Jury discussions shall be provider to the defendant, plaintiff/prosecutor, and the the panel of Judges with numbers or codes representing each member of the Jury.

After the first series of Jury discussions, then the panel of Judges shall have the option to select an alternate limited series of questions that each Jury member shall answer.

Jury Votes

Jury discussions and votes shall be by text. For Trials that carry a sentence of more than 19 years, or death, then Jury Votes with 5 or more for conviction or with 3 or less for acquittal and 4 for conviction or shall be deemed as a conviction.

For Trials that carry a sentence of more than 19 years, or death, then when Jury of 9 votes with 7 or more for conviction, and 2 of 3 the Judges agree with the conviction then in the case of a death sentence, the death sentence shall be carried out within 7 days.

Public Procurator replaces "Trial by Jury"

Public procurator and German criminal Law and Judicial system of Japan replace trial by jury. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_procurator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_principle_of_inquisition_in_German_criminal_law#The_principle_of_inquiry_in_modern_proceedings

Criminal Intent is not required

The prosecutors do not need to prove that a defendant had criminal intent.

Judges

Judges can not serve after during the month after their 60th birthday. Judges can not serve more than 30 years.

Candidates for Judges

• must be selected from active government employees that are less than 45 years old.
• must receive a rated “qualified” rating by the American Bar Association.
• a minimum 6 years as in the military with a minimum rank of an officer with experience commanding subordinates for a minimum of 100 people for at least 4 years, or
• a minimum 6 years as a government supervisor with experience commanding a minimum of 100 people for at least 4 years, and and 8 years of active military service, or
• a minimum 8 years as Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 1,000 people and 8 years of active military service.

Judges at all levels (City, County, Territory, State and Federal levels) shall be nominated by the younger 5 Judges of the highest court at that level. Judges shall be approved and appointed by the younger 1/3 of each of the legislative branch(s). A majority of Judges of each states and Tribal, and Territory Senators, Representatives, and Federal and Supreme Court Judges shall have been born as female. Elected and appointed officials shall not be involved with selecting judges.

Candidates for Federal justices shall not attend hearings and interviews for more than a total of 4 hours. The Federal justices are proposed by the Judicial Committee and elected by a 40% positive vote by the Congress for a term of office of six years. After a proposal by the Judicial Committee, there shall not be any Judicial hearings or interviews by the Congress. They can serve until the age 45. They can be re-elected an unlimited number of times. A minimum of 60% shall be cis females.

Only females shall serves as judges, jury, bailiffs, attorneys, witnesses, etc. in cases regarding child custody, divorce, and abuse cases.

Crimes

Murders, attempted murders, robbers, attempted robbers, drive-by shooters, car-jackers, thieves, embezzlers, fraudsters, kidnappers, and persons that break into buildings, or caused fire that destroy property shall be killed upon sight and or put to death within 7 days of conviction. Deaths by cruel and unusual punishment are to be used against murders, attempted murders, kidnappers, and those that cause serious physical, mental, or emotional injury to others, and those that steal intellectual property and trade secrets. Only a panel of judges (with a minimum of 3 judges) shall consider hearing appeals for these crimes.

Others that are sentenced to death shall be killed within 30 days. Only a panel of judges (with a minimum of 3 judges) shall consider hearing appeals for these crimes.

Felony convicts that serve at least 7 years, have the right to make one appeal to a Court. Felony convicts get only one appeal for all their crimes during their life.

Only a panel of judges (with a minimum of 3 judges) shall consider hearing appeals for these crimes.

Mass Murders

Sellers of guns and ammo, spouses, family, roommates, associates, and "the village that raised the person", etc. that know of a unstable armed person but fail to inform informed the law enforcement before the killings can be imprisoned, or loss or get reduced social security benefits, pensons, etc.

Attorney Clint Rights

Persons of Interest and those accused of a crime shall have their conversations with an attorney video audio recorded; there is no right to privacy for conversations about crime.

Searches and Seizures

People with a criminal record and those involved with or near crimes, or near riots and persons of interest are subject to searches and seizures whether or not there is a probable cause, or a warrant.

Double jeopardy

Double jeopardy rules shall not apply to any crime.

Punitive damages

The plantiffs shall receive none of any Punitive damages, or exemplary damages. Juries shall not be involved with determining Punitive damages, or exemplary damages. Proceeds from Punitive damages, or exemplary damages shall go directly to the U.S. Federal Treasury.

Deaths and Injury and Damages

Juries shall not be involved with determining the amounts of damages in cases of deaths or injuries. Damages for deaths and injury shall not exceed 20 times the median annual Social Security payments of the population.

Prisoners shall not be able to appeal any convictions during the first 10 years of their sentence. After the first 10 years of sentence, prisoners are allowed one appeal every 15 years.

A prisoner without a good conduct rating(s) shall not be allowed contact with lawyers or visitors.

Prisoners sentenced to death shall have no visitors, mail, or contact with anyone outside of the prison, or within prison except for prison staff. No representatives of the condemned, of the press, of the clergy, of any religious person or group, nor civilians nor elected officials shall attend executions or be informed before or after of the exact week, date, time, or location of a planned execution. Executions can involve a minimum of automatic three methods that occur within many hours and/or much less time. The allowable methods of executions include but or not limited to the following: gun shots, be heading, hanging, electrocution, poison injections, poison gases, etc.

Defendant is a man, corporation, group, or an organization

When a man, corporation, group, or an organization is being prosecuted for sex or abuse crimes against a female, all of the other people inside the courtroom shall have been born as female, except the defendant and the witnesses, and the bailiffs (sheriff deputy, police, security).

When a man, corporation, group, or an organization is a defendant in a civil suit and the plaintiff was born as a female, all of the other people inside the courtroom shall have been born as female, except the defendant and the witnesses, and the bailiffs (sheriff deputy, police, security).

Voir dire

During Voir dire, the defendant(s) shall not be allowed to dismiss any prospective jury members.

A culture stressing organizational loyalty, rather than personal loyalty

U.S. military culture stresses organizational loyalty, rather than personal loyalty. The police, fire, medical, etc. shall be operate a culture stresses organizational loyalty, rather than personal loyalty ... Blue wall of silence.

Prisons

The Federal Government shall fully fund all prisons, may choose to kill a prisoner, extend a prisoners sentences, and block the release of a prisoner.

Prisons can be sent abroad or to remote islands to penal areas that operate similar to the way that Port Arthur, Tasmania was operated during the 1800's. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Arthur,_Tasmania

Riot Act

A "Riot Act" similar to the UK version without any requirement to be read to the crowd. It automatically applies to looters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riot_Act 
The act created a mechanism for certain local officials to make a proclamation ordering the dispersal of any group of more than twelve people who were "unlawfully, riotously, and tumultuously assembled together". If the group failed to disperse within one hour, then anyone remaining gathered was guilty of a felony and subject to be shot on sight, fire on by artillery, fire bombed, burnt with flame throwers, bombed with cluster bombs, without benefit of clergy, punishable by death, cruel and unusual punishments, dismemberments, and life time imprisonment in foreign countries, etc. including places similar to the Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba.

The act also made it a felony punishable by death without benefit of clergy for "any persons unlawfully, riotously and tumultuously assembled together" to cause (or begin to cause) serious damage to places of religious worship, houses, barns, and stables.

If a group of people failed to disperse within 30 minutes of a proclamation, the authorities and lawful local residents can use force to disperse them. Anyone assisting with the dispersal was specifically indemnified against any legal consequences in the event of any of the crowd being injured or killed.

In the event of buildings being damaged in areas that were not incorporated into a town or city, the residents of the hundred were made liable to pay damages to the property owners concerned. Unlike the rest of the act, this required a civil action. In the case of incorporated areas, the action could be brought against two or more named individuals. This provision encouraged residents to attempt to quell riots in order to avoid paying damages.

Prosecutions under the act are restricted to within 50 years of the event.
Persons encouraging others to riot or actively causing harm or shall have not access to the Courts.

Mental Illness and Insanity

Crime committed by those with Mental Illness or Insanity shall receive any reduced punishments, or receive any special considerations.

Damages

Absolute Immumity, Qualified immunity and Sovereign immunity

Annual payments (for death, injury, punitive damages, including class actions, friendly fire, etc.) shall not exceed two times the median social security rate (for the less of than 65 years or the estimated remaining lifetime + 10 years).

Class Actions

Compensation to Lawyers involved with Class Actions shall not exceed 5% of the funds awarded to the group of victims in the class. When there are more than 200 members in a class, the Compensation to Lawyers shall not exceed the 10 times the funds received by the median victim in the class.

Declared and Undeclared Military Combats and Wars

Every 4 months, staggered groups of a minimum of 2 members (and at least one of their children older than 18 years of age) of the Executive Branch that support the combat and 10% of the Legislative Branch shall be randomly rotate to within or near the front line combat zone(s). Half of the group from the Legislative Branch shall be randomly selected from the most senior that support the combat; the other half shall be randomly selected from the entire Legislative Branch that support the combat. Those selected (and at least one of their children older than 18 years of age) that serve in within or near the front line ground combat zone(s). If any selected person (or their child) refuses or is unable to serve within or near the front line ground combat zone(s), then the selected person shall be permanently banned for life from any government, corporate board, or corporate officer positions, and shall forfeit the most recent 7 years of pensions, benefits, vestings, etc.

Enemy Combatants and Domestic Terrorists

The U.S. Constitution, laws, regulations, etc. shall not provide any protections or benefits to Enemy or Domestic combatants.

Persons involved in a Riot shall be only be represented by U.S. military legal officers. Prosecutors have the option of move cases to a Court in the Guantanamo Bay detention prison in Cuba, or similar military prisons within or outside of the U.S. No visitors, media, or communications shall be allowed with the accused person(s).

Prisoners of War shall be only be represented by U.S. military legal officers in U.S. military courts. The U.S. military has the option of holding Court in the Guantanamo Bay detention camp in Cuba or similar locations within or outside of the U.S.

Women's Rights

Cis females that produce and raise a baby past age 8 shall have favorable adjustments made with calculating the Social Security benefits. Perhaps a 20% shorted window, i.e. currently instead of the average their high 35 years of earnings, maybe their high 28 years of earnings as a factor in the calculations.

States

States shall only be allowed to govern specific duties and actions, all other rights shall be reserved for the Federal government. The Federal government shall manage health, education, military, building requirements, and every aspect of U.S. highways and Interstates, etc. No buildings shall be built in areas that are less than 5 feet above the natural 500 year flood plain, or within 500 feet of coast lines.

National Guard

The National Guard shall be controlled by Federal military and shall not be controlled by any state officials.

Meetings of Congress

Congressional, Houses, Committee, sub-committees, etc. meeting shall be by text. Text shall not exceed 2,000 characters written by a member. Text quotes of others shall be automatically removed by software before being shared with other members.

Each message is allowed to have one attached Appendix. The entire Appendix shall not exceed 1,000 characters. Each entry in the Appendix is limited to 250 characters. Appendix Entries may contain links to the works by others.

Each House of Congress may hold meetings that are no longer than 3-hours. Each House of Congress may hold up to (2) 3-hour meetings with a minimum breaks of 2-hours between meetings. Meetings shall be between 8 AM ET and 8 PM.

No member of Congress shall speak for more than 2-minutes during each 3-hour meeting. Members that exceed the 2-minutes limit shall have their ranking reduced by 1 position for each second beyond the 2-minute limit for the following 180-days. Members that exceed 2.5 minutes shall be placed on the Stand-by Reserve List for a minimum of 45-days. Members that exceed 2.5 minutes shall have their ranking reduced by 5 positions, for every event, for life. Members that exceed 2.5 minutes shall be immediately muted and forcibly isolated from other Members, the Public, the Press by the Sergeant of Arms for a minimum of 7-days.

Congress Activities

Congress Duties regarding impeachments, investigations, etc. are restricted to only current and former members of Congress. All of Congress Duties regarding impeachments, investigations, etc. shall move to the Judicial Branch, the Justice Branch, the Law Enforcement branch, and or the Conduct branch.

Active and Reserve Members of Congress

Active Members

A annual review and reshuffling of the rankings of all Members of each House of Congress shall be conducted by the Counsel of Review. The rankings shall be similar to graduates of the U.S. West Point military school, i.e. 1st in class, 2nd in class, etc.

When an Active Member fails to attend a scheduled meeting of their House in Congress, then that Member shall be placed on the "Stand-by Reserve" List for a minimum of 6-days. For each failure to appear, an Active Member shall have their rank lowered by 2 position for the following 90-days.

The Counsel of Review can consider the following as favorable factors when establishing the rankings.

• for those with higher FBI security background check ratings.
• for those with higher political history, world history, and current events test scores in the past 24 months.
• for those with higher recent IQ test scores in the past 24 months.
• for those with better mental health scores in the past 24 months.
• for those with better physical health scores in the past 24 months.
• federal government employee for at least 4 years.
• for those less than 55 years of age.
• for one person per state for each House of Congress with a higher ranking than others from of that state.

The Counsel of Review can consider the following as unfavorable factors when establishing the rankings.

• for those are or have been "plead the 5th" to a any federal, state, or local District attorney lawyer or State or Federal judge.
• for those are or have been under indictment.
• for those that have been a 'person of interest' by any federal, state, or local District attorney lawyer or State or Federal judge.
• for those who are or ever were lawyers, actors, or preachers.
• for those in Congress for more than 12 years.
• for those over 60 years of age.

Standby Reserve Members

About 10% of Reserve Members of each House shall be in the Standby Reserve. Those members shall:

• receive the same briefings, etc. that are provided to the Active Members,
• receive the same pay, benefits, etc. that are provided to the Active Members,
• shall be silent but present when their House of Congress holds meetings.

Medical List

When an Active Member is unable to work because of medical or health issues, then that member is placed on the Medical List. For each medical absence, their ranking is lower by 2 positions for following 90-days. When that member recovers, then one-day later that member becomes eligible to return to the Active Members status.

Vacations

When an Active Member is on a Vacation, then they are placed on the Vacation List for a minimum of 7 days. For each vacation, their ranking is lower by 5 positions for following 90-days. After the greater of 7-day or the length of the vacation, then that member becomes eligible to return to the Active Members status.

Deep Reserve Members List

Persons ranked in the lower 20% of their House of Congress shall become Reserve Members. Reserve Members shall not vote, be members of a Committee, or receive sensitive or classified briefings. Reserve Members shall not never be present in the Washington, D.C.

Reserve Members shall not receive any pay, per diem payments, or any pension, health or other benefits of any type. There shall be no compensation for attending quarterly ranking tests.

Conduct Unbecoming

If a an Active Member of the Party has been or is being investigated for "conduct unbecoming" by

• a District attorney of any State government,
• the U.S. Dept, of Justice, or
• rated less than honorable by any 3 of the major political parties named above. No group of 3 of the major political parties shall issue more than one "less than honorable" rating every 30 days.

then the person being investigated shall not be eligible to become an Active Member of the Congress.

Candidates for office in Administration, Legislative, Judicial, Ambassador positions

(generally similar to Institut national du service public)

Students age 21 to 30 after a bachelor's degree with different competitions depending on the candidate's profile.

Five entrance exams coexist at the National Institute of Public Service. They allow diverse profiles to integrate the initial training cycle of the INSP.

• External competition: Open to holders of a bac+3 level diploma, or an equivalent qualification.
• Special external competition (Talents): Introduced in 2021, it is reserved for the most deserving scholarship students and job seekers, students in a "public service talents" preparatory class. Students in this competition are "dual-registered", being also registered in the external competition;
• External "doctors" competition: Open to holders of a doctorate. Each year, a decree specifies a specialty for the tests.
• Internal competition: Intended for public and military officials who can demonstrate four years of professional experience, without qualification requirements.
• Third competition: Aimed at workers in the private sector, players in the associative world and local elected officials, with eight years of professional experience, without qualification requirements.

The competitions take place in two stages, with eligibility tests (up to five written tests) and then admission tests (up to five oral tests).

From 2024, the format of the tests will evolve, aiming to make the selection process less academic and more professional. The number of oral tests is reduced, but the weight of their coefficient is increased.

Political Parties

Four Political Parties

There shall be a minimum of 4 political parties. The parties can be similar to Conservative party; Liberal party; Women's Party; and an Active Military Party.

Conservative party

All voters may vote for these candidates. A minimum of 25% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Conservative party. A maximum of 45% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Conservative party.

Liberal party

All voters may vote for these candidates. A minimum of 25% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Liberal party. A maximum of 45% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Liberal party.

Women's Party Members of Congress

Only cis women under the age of 55, shall be eligible to vote or be elected to Congress a members of the Women's party. A minimum of 20% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Women's party.

A maximum of 45% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Women's party.

The Women's party may hold meetings etc. to establish (5) questions for each Candidate. Each Candidate's must publish a ranked weight of each question and their position (for, or against). Candidate's shall be disqualified if they fail to publish their ranked weights and positions a minimum of 60 days before the Nov. election.

The Women's party shall not hold meetings or a convention to nominate candidates, or primary elections of candidates.

During the regular federal elections every 2 years in November, women voters in each area served by each of the 24 branches of the Federal Reserve Bank branches will vote for 5 women candidates in their area. In each area, the candidates with at least 10% of the votes cast shall be tested. Across the nation, those tested shall be ranked. Immediately, the 120 higher ranked candidates will become Reserve Members of Congress.

After all other members of Congress are elected, then the Women's Party that rank higher than members of the Conservative or Liberal Party shall occupy up 12 seats in the Senate and up to 70 seats in the House. Members of the Conservative or Liberal Party with the lower rankings become Members of Congress in a Reserve Status.

Military Party with At-Large Members of Congress

Only active duty military under the age of 55, shall be eligible to vote or be elected to Congress a members of the Active Military party. A minimum of 10% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Women's party.

After being elected At-Large Members of the Military Party shall occupy 4 seats in the Senate and 12 seats in the House, by pushing the lower ranked Conservative and Liberal Party members of Congress to the Reserve Status.

A maximum of 20% of those elected members of Congress chosen to vote on laws, attend Committee meetings, etc. shall from a Active Military party.

Active Members of Congress in a Party with more than 35% of the elected members of Congress

No more than 35% of the elected members of Congress of any party shall be Active Members of the Party. Only Active Members of Congress shall be allowed in Congress, be allowed to vote on laws, be allowed to attend Committee meetings, etc.

When a party has more than 35% of the elected members of Congress, then a random lottery shall selected the Active Members of Congress of that party.

If an Active Member misses more than 6 hours of work per month, then an alternate elected member of that Party shall be the Active Member and the person who missed work shall return to the group of Non-Active Elected Party Members.

Voting Process, Most People

Those eligible to vote shall be allowed to vote for two candidates in either the Conservative or Liberal Party; and to vote once for a candidate of the other party, either a candidate of the Conservative or the Liberal Party.

Voting Process, Military less than 55 year of age

Of those less than 55 years of age and on active duty in the Military shall be eligible to vote for one candidate of the Military Party. Military shall also vote for candidates of the Conservative and the Liberal Party.

Voting Process, Women less than 55 year of age

Women less than 55 years of age who are eligible to vote shall be allowed to vote for candidates of the Women's Party. Women shall also vote for candidates of the Conservative and the Liberal Party. Women on active military duty shall also vote for candidates of the Military Party.

Votes involving Women's rights

Only women under the age of 45 are eligible to vote on issues related to women's health, births, rights, etc.

Votes involving Wars, Drafts, & Combat

Only people under the age of 45 (and people under the age of 55 that are government employees, or active or reserve military people that spend a minimum of 60 nights at sea, at U.S. territories, GitMo, or in foreign countries, are eligible to vote on issues related to Wars, Drafts, & Combat.

Elected, Employed, Appointed (current & former)

No person who was convicted of breaking a federal or state law (or got a suspended sentence or pardon) shall hold office.

Every person that was Elected, Employed, Appointed by any Government to any position that involves working on more than 52 days a year shall not engage in a side hustle or side gig, at an additional non-government job that a person takes in addition to their primary job in order to supplement their income, except for hands-on work in education, medical, post service jobs.

Until 12 years after leaving a job at the government, every person that was Elected, Employed, Appointed by any Government to any position that involves working on more than 52 days a year may work in education, post service, hands-on medical jobs, but not ... any full-time or part-time job, part-time contract, freelance work, consulting, speaking, writing books, board of directors, or an activity that provides money.

Descendants, in-laws, relatives (including 2nd degree relatives) of current and past elected officials shall not be appointed as as ambassador, administrator, or to any offices, commissions, etc.

No person (or is a sibling, direct descendant, spouse, or in-law of someone) who is working or has worked on TV, Radio, news, sports, religion, internet, music, entertainment, media, or is a hero or heroin shall be Elected, Employed, Appointed by any Government to any position. Except for public defenders, prosecutors, attorney generals, no person with a law degree shall be Elected, Employed, Appointed by any Government to any position.

Retirement

Other than voluntary retirement, statute sets a number of mandates for retirement. A Elected, Employed, Appointed persons must retire after 40 years of service unless they are reappointed to serve longer. Otherwise all general officers must retire the month after their 64th birthday. However, the Secretary of Defense can defer a general's retirement until the officer's 66th birthday and the President can defer it until the officer's 68th birthday. To retire at four-star grade, an officer must accumulate at least three years of satisfactory active duty service in that grade, as certified by the Secretary of Defense.

Administrators Boards replace the President and Vice President

No person shall act as a Commander in Chief of the Federal Government, of a state government, of a territory government, or of Indian tribes.

Every 2 years, Three of Nine Administrators shall be selected by the general public in the General Election.

Each voter shall vote for all three sorts of administrators listed below will each have one chosen from the types with the most votes.

• Independent, middle of the road
• Conservative
• Liberal

The Administrators shall be selected from existing federal employees within the Civil Service, Military, Law Enforcement, Ethics, Judicial, and Intelligence branches. Legislative employees are excluded. At least one Administrators shall be elected from each of the following branches: Military, Law Enforcement, Ethics, Judicial, State Department, and the intelligent groups (NSA, CIA, cyber security). At least 3 Administrators shall have been born as females.

A panel the available 9 Administrators (or their replacements) shall be the Chief Command Panel in charge. No single person (i.e., President) shall act as a commander in chief.

The Administrators Group can be loosely modeled after the Federal Reserve System, with several layers, say Twelve or more regional Federal Administrators Boards, somewhat similar to those of the Federal Reserve System.

The government shall provide a residence for each Administrator. Only the Administrator and their immediate family, domestic and security staff are allowed in those residences. Except during military emergencies, no government business, Tweets, etc. are to be conducted or issued while an Admistrator is in the Residence. No diplomats, heads of state, non-government employees (such as consultants, media, news, biographers, photographers, etc.) shall be permitted inside any resisdence.

Diplomats, heads of state, non-government employees (such as consultants, media, news, biographers, photographers, etc.) shall be permitted inside office buildings only when 2 or more Administrators are in the same room.

As a group, the Administrators are to focus on selected others to set and change policies, guidelines, behaviors, precedents, etc. Administrators not to engage in micro-management.

After hours, on weekends and holidays, the duties of Three Administrators on Duty shall be alternated among the Administrators.

The Three Administrators to Foreign Governments shall represent the Administrators Group when meeting heads of state. The duties of the Adminstrators to Foreign Governments shall be alternated among the 9 Adminstrators.

Each member of the Staff of each Administrator shall be selected from existing federal employees that are in one of the following branches: the Military, Law Enforcement, Ethics, Judicial, State Department, and the intelligent groups (NSA, CIA, cyber security) and must be approved by the House.

Administrators Boards shall select Department Heads, etc. from within the ranks of government employees.

Administrators Boards replace Governors

Administrators Terms

Administrators shall be allowed to serve up to a total of 20 years, in any pattern. While is office, Administrators shall be age 35 to age 55.

Spending, Revenue and Budgets

All changes in Spending, Revenue and Budgets shall begin in the Administration. The previous years Budget shall automatically renew, but the House is limited to changes of no more than 5% to any Departments funding. The House is not authorized to change line item budgets.

The Administration may fund completely new programs (up to 5% of the annual budget) unless 2/3 of the House disagrees. The Administration may increase defense funding by as much as to 30% of the annual budget, unless 70% of the House disagrees. The Administration may decrease defense funding by as much as 20% from the previous year's funding, unless 70% of the House disagrees.

Classified Information

No elected official shall declassify information.

Relatives

No relatives or in-laws shall work or be present in government offices. No relatives shall travel out of of the U.S. unless the Administrator travels with them. No relatives or in-laws shall travel on government vehicles, boats, aircraft, etc.

Legislators (Representatives and Senators)

Those seeking office as Legislators must be active government or retired or active military employees with the rank of Lt or higher. Those seeking office as Legislators must have evaluations of above average or higher.

Individual Legislators (Representatives and Senators) must complete and pass all required training for the equivalent of their military occupational specialty qualification (MOSQ) to be assigned to a "career branch". Legislators that do not successfully learn a "career branch" shall be replaced by a person who got the 2nd, 3rd, ... most votes for that office. Only those assigned to a particular "career branch" shall only allowed to be involved with the ranking officials of the Administration of that branch. Legislators shall been removed from office when they or Legislators staff have get involved with subordinate government employees, and government contractors.

Only Legislators that had Top Secret, or higher security ratings before entering Congress shall be allowed to view "eyes only" Sensitive, Classified, Top Secret, or higher security information or briefings. No Legislators shall receive copies of digital, audio, paper, physical, etc. copies of Sensitive, Classified, Top Secret , or higher security information or briefings.

Legislators shall be removed from office, if they travel outside of the U.S.

Legislators shall be removed from office, if they, their relatives, their staff, their supporters or their agents

• meet in private

with Representatives and Senators or their agents to attempt to be involved with creating, writing, making selections, making recommendations, or passing motions, budgets, funding, actions, amendments, laws, appointments, censors, etc.

to attempt to be involved with creating, writing, or passing motions, budgets, funding, actions, amendments, laws that benefit their constituents more than the benefits to the constituents of 60% of the population of the U.S. and its territories.

to attempt to be involved with creating, writing, or passing motions, budgets, funding, actions, amendments, laws that benefit their constituents more than the benefits to the constituents of 60% of the population of the U.S. and its territories.

meet with or have any contact with foreign ambassadors, or people or agents that represent foreign countries, foreign companies, foreign persons or non-U.S. organizations.* travel to or do business with foreign countries or embassies.

• travel on

 corporate or private aircraft, helicopters, ships, automobiles, or vehicles.

 foreign owned, or foreign controlled aircraft, helicopters, ships, automobiles, or vehicles.

 U.S. military vehicles, ships, or on U.S. military bases, or to the Pentagon.

Officers and Directors of organizations

Chairpersons and Members of a Board of Directors, Chief Executive Officers, Directors, Managers, Supervisors, etc. of organizations shall be less than 60 years old (this applies to all organizations, including but not limited to private, public, regligous, civil, social, etc.).

Voting, Elections, Government

Voters age 18 to 66

Only people between age 18 and age 55 shall be eligible to vote. Felons, and those federally prosecuted for fraud, misconduct, etc. shall not vote or receive government payments or benefits.

Election Process and Duties of those that are Elected

Taking Office

The President, Vice President, Senators, and Representatives shall take office immediately upon being elected. Those leaving office shall work 56 hours a week to assistance for the next 3 months. Failure to be fully completely useful and helpful shall result in 6 months in prison in Gito, Cuba and shall not be subject to appeals.

Electoral College

The number of Electoral candidates for each state and territory shall be strictly based upon its number of members of the House of Representatives.

Electoral candidates for each state and territory shall be randomly selected from State and Federal Appeals Court Judges or active or retired Military Lawyers. Members of Electoral College shall be more than 30 years old and less than 55 years old. For each state and territory, cis female Members shall make up at least 50% of the Electoral College.

During the first vote, each group of Electoral College members from each state or territory shall only vote for the party with the most votes in their state of territory.

If no Presidential candidate receives the majority of the Electoral College votes, then the the Electoral College shall have a second vote. During the second vote, the members of the Electoral College are allowed to vote only for any of the three candidates that got more votes initially.

If no Presidential candidate receives the majority of the Electoral College from the second vote, then the members of the Electoral College have a third vote. During the third vote, members are only to vote for either of the two candidates that got more votes during the second vote.

Congress shall not be involved with approving any Electoral votes.

Native American Tribes

Local governments, States and Tribes shall not own, host, or be involved with casinos, gambling, lotteries, racing animals or related activities.

Territory

For parents that have in the U.S. states, American Territories and in an unincorporated territory for at least 3 years, babies people born shall be American citizens.

The people of Territories shall have Representatives in the House in proportion to the population, the same as for a state.

The people of Territories shall have two Senators.

Apportionment and Redistricting cases, and Political Boundaries

Political boundaries for territory, tribal, state, federal officials shall be drawn and redrawn by career civil service employees based up guidelines from a group of 5 selected from the youngest Nobel prize winners that volunteer. In general, maximize the area/perimeter ratio, perhaps using zip codes, or the area served by schools as boundary lines. The Court shall handle disputes to the boundaries. Elected and appointed officials shall not be involved or conduct gerrymandering of districts.

Political Parties & Primary Elections

The first Political parties Caucus and primary elections shall happen on the same date, and shall consist of states that total a minimum of at least 20% of the voting population.

Voting shall be by a "ranked voting system" or a "cardinal voting system."

If a state(s) holds a Political parties Caucus or primary elections before the above group, then the current office holders in that state of that political party shall be immediately removed from office and permanently banned from all government jobs and offices, and shall never work as a consultant for any government.

Elections

Voting shall be by a "ranked voting system" or a "cardinal voting system."

Political Contributions

Only natural people, (not corporations, groups, etc.), shall be allowed to make political contributions up to 1/100 of the minimum social security annual payments to the median of the retired people.

Political contributions to candidates for federal and state offices shall be collected, controlled and managed by one of the big 6 accounting firms. The accounting firms shall track and manage the spending by those accounts as directed by the candidate and agents of the candidate.  

Candidates, Elected, and Selected Officials

Multiple independent boards of directors shall set personal policies, procedures, and reviews of managers, nominations for managers, demotions and dismissals of managers.

Only the following persons shall be able run for office or be appointed to work in the government:

• Persons with a Secret security clearance that could allow for limited escorted, "eyes only" access to view "need-to-know" national security information, classified at the Confidential or Secret level. The FBI investigations are to equal to investigations for getting a Confidential or Secret level rating in military.
• Candidates for Congress, President, VP, and federal Court Judges are required to have earned a Secret security clearance of "Top Secret" rating after an FBI investigation that could qualify for limited escorted, "eyes only" access to view "need-to-know" national security information, classified at the Confidential or Secret level. The FBI investigations are to equal to investigations for getting a "Top Secret" rating in military.
• Persons with a family having net worth that is less than 50 times of the social security annual payments to the median of retired people.
• Persons with an annual income that is less than 20 times of the social security annual payments to the median of the retired people
• Persons currently working as an administrator in command people numbering more than 40 people or 0.2% of the population to be represented.
• Never a defendant in a felony trial. Never had a close family member that was a defendant in a felony trial. Never a defendant or person of interest of a federal or state prosecutor for fraud, or sexual misconduct.
• Applied for or received disability payments from the social security administration.
• Never a driver of a vehicle, or a pilot of a boat, or aircraft involved in a crash with injuries or deaths.
• Never a member of the NRA or similar groups.
• Shall not hold funds, property, accounts, etc. in any foreign country.
• Shall disclose their and their spouses complete federal tax returns annually by May 15th.
• Shall disclose complete federal tax returns for the prior 10 years before filing to be a candidate.
• Shall not attend private meetings, events, etc. with individuals, companies, groups, etc.
• Shall not work for, privately consult, attend accept rides, attend parties, etc. with individuals, companies, groups, etc.
• Shall not have a relative or in-law that work for, attend private meetings, accept rides, attend parties, invests, consults, or making sales attend private meetings, events, etc. to or with foreign governments, companies, etc.
• Candidates for Governor, and Congress, their staff and spouses must qualify for a "Top Secret" security rating by the FBI, NSA, and CIA. When an elected or appointed official or staff losses a "Top Secret" rating, then they are removed from office. Any person that leaks classified information shall be permanently banned from working for any government and any vendor that works for the government, and shall be banned from entering the District of Columbia.
• Candidates for Governor, and Congress, their staff and spouses must not own shares, stocks or equivalents of individual companies as candidates, appointees, or elected officials.

All candidates and appointees shall have an FBI review rating equal or exceeding _____ rating. Current and former Actors, Radio & Internet persons & bloggers, Lawyers, Preachers, Coaches, News people, union members, and with assets that exceed more than 20 times of the assets of the median voters by etc. must have 8-years of military service and be a medical doctor, with a degree from a university (that has at least 4 Nobel Prize Winners).

Upon the election of any younger close relative, all existing office holders and appointee shall be removed from office.

Health, Psychological and Drug Testing

Candidates and elected and appointed officials must receive a rating of "normal" or better from a Federal approved Psychological profiler. Every 16 months, elected and appointed officials and judges must receive a rating of "normal" or better from a Federal approved Psychological profiler. Candidates and elected and appointed officials who receive a rating of "dangerous" shall never be a candidate for any office or appointment.

Elected and appointed officials and judges shall be tested for drugs twice a year using samples hair, blood, urine, etc.; those that fail drug test shall be banned for life from elected and appointed positions.

All elected and appointed officials shall be tested for drugs every 3 months. Tests shall include hair, blood, and urine samples. Those failing drug test shall be removed from office and ineligible for elected and appointed positions for 14 years. Felons and those with DUI's shall be ineligible for elected and appointed positions.

All elected and appointed officials shall maintain a BMI of less than 31. During votes, the votes by elected officials with a BMI over 26 shall be reduced by 20% for each BMI # above 26 (BMI 27 votes count at 80%; 28 as 60%; 29 as 40%; 30 as 20%; over 31 as 0%. Appointed officials with a BMI shall be removed from office for 8 years.

Income and Net Worth

Candidates, officials, and appointees shall no longer hold office or positions when

• their income exceeds the American's median income by a factor of 100
• their Net Worth exceeds the American's median income by a factor of 200.

Governments of more than 20,000 people

The Offices of the President, Governors, Territorial Governors, City and County shall be filled by a team panel of 7 people. Each panel shall include 4 persons that were born female. At least every month, the panel shall select the acting Chief; upon a tie vote, the youngest panel member shall become the acting Chief. The Vice-President office shall no longer exist.

President, Governors, Territorial Governors, Senate, and House of Representative, staff, Chief of Staff, direct reports, Cabinet appointees, Ambassadors, White House staff, etc. shall be selected those who have a minimum of 8 years working as current, or former federal, state, and military or government employees.

Presidential candidates,

• a minimum 8 years as a Governor of a State or Territory, or
• a minimum 8 years as a Senator, or
• a minimum 8 years as a House of Representative, or
• a minimum 8 years as in the military with a minimum rank of an officer or a supervisor with experience commanding a minimum of 5000 people for at least 6 years, or
• a minimum 8 years as a government supervisor with experience commanding a minimum of 5000 people for at least 8 years, or
• a minimum 8 years as in the captain of military ship with a crew of a minimum of 50 people, or
• a minimum 4 years as an US Navy Admiral with a minimum of 2 years as a ship's captain
• a minimum 12 years as Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 50,000 people and 12 years of active military service.
• Governments of more than 20,000 people, shall make public their tax returns for the past 10 years a minimum of 18 months before an election.

Executive Office of the President

Executive Office of the President of the United States and Senior Executive Service (United States) and all others appointees shall be selected from existing federal career Civil Service and military employees, with a minimum age of 35 and a minimum of 8 years as a federal employee.

Senate and Governor candidates

• a minimum 4 years as a Governor of a State or Territory, or the District of Columbia or
• a minimum 2 years as a in House of Representative, or
• a minimum 4 years as in the military with a minimum rank of an officer with experience commanding subordinates for a minimum of 1000 people for at least 4 years, or
• a minimum 2 years as an US Navy Admiral with a minimum of 2 years as a ship's captain, or
• a minimum 8 years as a government supervisor with experience commanding a minimum of 5,000 people, or
• a minimum 8 years as Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 50,000 people, and 12 years of active military service, or
• a minimum 8 years as a Court Judge.
• not eligible if already served 6 years in Congress, within the past 12 years.

Congress

Congress can not mandate spending on specific items: legislatively directed spending, commonly known as “earmarks,” specifies funds for a particular project, rather than for a government agency.

Congress can not establishment of an annual budget for the government or levies taxes and tariffs to provide funding for essential government services. Congress can not be involved with borrowing to fund the government, or with setting debt limits.

A majority of 51% of Senators or House Members can break a filibuster by invoking cloture, or the cession of debate on the bill, and forcing a vote. Once debate is over, the votes of a simple majority pass the bill.

Laws passed by Congress must also receive passing votes by both the Council of Review, the Executive Branch, and the Law Enforcement Branch.

If Congress fails to pass budgets for each Department of the Government, then the committees of Congress can pass the budgets for their Department.

If Congress and the committees of Congress both fail to pass budgets for each Department of the Government, then each Department of the Government shall continue to be funded at the previous level minus 1% and with an allowance for inflation and deflation; and the Department of Defense funding shall continue to be funded at the previous level plus an allowance for for inflation and deflation with adjustments as agreed by the Executive Branch and the Council of Revision.

Only Civil Servants with more than 9 years of service in the General Accounting Office shall be allowed investigate the Administration. The General Accounting Office shall only be allowed to question Under Secretary Levels by asking printed questions and allowing 7 days for a response. The number of questions shall be limited to 10 questions per month for each Department; each question shall be less than 250 text characters long. The Administration's responses may be of unlimited length and may include pictures, videos, graphics, tables, charts, etc. No secret, top secret, or higher level information shall be accessible to the General Accounting Office or to Congress.

Congress shall only be allowed to communicate by using the printed questions, statements, proposals, etc. with each being less than 250 text characters long. The number of questions, statements, proposals, etc. shall be limited to 4 per month for member of Congress. Their shall not be any private face to face, phone, video, text, or written etc. communications between members of Congress, corporations, voters, foreigners, etc., at any time, so that "back room" negotiations and deals are recorded. Members of Congress that violate these rules shall be immediately removed from office and serve 1 year in a military prison in Cuba with very limited contact with anyone outside of the prison. The communications of all communications devices used by any member of Congress shall be recorded and those records shall be provided to the Law Enforcement Branch and the Council of Revision.

Senators

States with more than 20 Representatives shall have a third Senator. States with more than 40 Representatives shall have a fourth Senator.

Senators shall not be involved with taxes or spending, and shall not be present when Representatives hold formal hearings, reviews, etc.

Senate Removed

Sixty years after this amendment is passed, then the entire Senate shall be removed and not replaced. Duties of the Senate shall be handled by the Representatives.

Spending

Funds to states shall be based on the revenue collected from each state instead of a per capita funding. States with lower violent crime rates shall receive higher funding that those higher violent crime rates.

Representatives

Representatives who has become a "Person of Interest" related to leaks of classified information shall be permanently banned from working for any government and any vendor that works for the government.

Senator, Representative, Territorial, Governor, Presidential Cabinet officers and or Ambassadors

• a minimum age of 35 years and a maximum age of 55 years, and
• a minimum 4 years as a Governor of a State or Territory, or the District of Columbia or
• a minimum 6 years as in the military with a minimum rank of an officer with experience commanding subordinates for a minimum of 400 people for at least 4 years, or
• a minimum 8 years as Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 10,000 people and and 8 years of active military service with rank of Lieutenant or greater and responsibility to manage more than 40 people.

• persons that did not attend public or private schools after the age of 5 are not eligible.
• seniority of persons over the age of 45 shall count down 5 years for each year over age 45.
• no Committee Chairs, or Leaders shall be over the age of 50.

Ambassadors

• having a minimum 8 years as a supervisor of more than 40 people in the U.S. State Department or in the Department of Defense.

Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 10,000 people

• a minimum age of 35 years and a maximum age of 55 years, and
• 4 years of active military service with rank of an officer and responsibility to manage more than 40 people for at least 4 years, or
• a minimum 12 years as a government supervisor with experience managing a minimum of 150 people for at least 4 years.
• persons that did not attend public or private schools after the age of 5 are not eligible.

Committee Chairpersons

Committee Chairpersons and a majority of each Committees (sub-Committee, and every group) members shall have been born female. Congressional committees and their Chairperson shall be shall be selected by the younger half of the members of the House and of the Senate. Committee candidates and active members shall have a combined age and years in Congress that is less than 65. During quarterly tests, Committee Chairpersons who cannot walk 3 miles in less than an hour with a median heart rate of less than 130 bpm, shall loss their Chairperson status.

Committees of 7 people shall replace individual office holders and candidates for the positions of President, Vice-President, Governors, Territorial Governors, Senate, and House of Representative. A majority of the elected committee shall select 3 of their 7 members as the acting office holder. A vote by 5 of the 7 committee members can change the acting office holder. Upon a tie vote, select the person younger that is nearest the median age of the committee members.

Candidates for Schools, Colleges, University (including religious and private education) the top commander (Superintendents, Provost, President, etc.)

• born as a female.
• a minimum 6 years as in the military with a minimum rank of an officer with experience commanding subordinates for a minimum of 40 people for at least 4 years, or
• a minimum 6 years as a government supervisor with experience commanding a minimum of 100 people for at least 4 years, and 8 years of active military service, or
• a minimum 8 years as Mayor of a County or City with a population exceeding 100 people, and 8 years of active military service.

Terms and Term Limits

Maximum ages while in office:

• House, Senate 55 years
• State and Tribal Representatives, Officers, and Administrators 55 years.
• School Superintendents, University Presidents, Provosts, etc. 55 years
• President 55 years
• Supreme Court Judges and Federal, State, County, Territory Court Judges 55 years

Maximum term limits while in office:

• State and Tribal Representatives and Officers a combined total of 18 years.
• House and Senate terms a combined total of 18 years
• President 8 years
• Supreme Court Judges and Federal, State, County, Territory Court Judges 20 years, and Age + years in government < 90
• Congress, Age + years in Congress <80

Minimum ages while in office:

• House, Senate, President, Federal Court Judge, State Court Judges, Tribal or Territory Judge (or Administrator), Cabinet members, Ambassador, military officers:

a minimum of 35 years of age, maximum of 55 years of age, a maximum of 12 years in Federal, State, or local offices.

Senators & Representative Terms

See the the Court of Conduct section. Representatives shall have a term of 2 to 6 years. Senators shall have a term of 2 to 6 years.

Tenure

No one older than 54 years of age shall have Tenure.

Travel

Elected and appointed officials shall not schedule or attend meetings or retreats in locations outside of the area that they represent, such as city council meetings, county meetings, state government meetings.

Impeachments

President

By a vote of 55%, either the House or the Senate may remove one member of the Presidential panel. For votes of this kind, the removal rate shall not exceed one person every month.

By a vote of 60%, either the House or the Senate may remove an unlimited number of Presidents and successors at the same time.

By a vote of 60%, either the House or the Senate may remove any pair of members of Congress (one from each of the two major political parties). Each pair of members shall consist of one member from each of the two larger political parties. The removal rate shall not exceed one pair every 3 months.

At a selected number of years after the Ammendent, then the offices of the President and Vice President, as well as the entire Senate shall be permantly replaced. The Administration shall be replaced by a group of Duty Administrators (somewhat similar those the Switzerland), except the Administrators shall be selected by Congress from the existing government employees that were not elected by the general public. By a vote of 55%, either the House or the Senate may remove one member of the Duty Administrators at a removal rate that shall not exceed one person every month. By a vote of 66%, either the House or the Senate may remove an unlimited number of Duty Administrators and successors at any time.

Representatives, Senators, Governors, Replacements

By a vote of 55%, either the House or the Senate may remove one Representative, one Senator, and or one Governor. The removal rate shall not exceed three people in 12 months.

The Replacements for Representatives, Senators, Governors shall be

2 people: the woman and man of the same political party that got more votes (only exceeded by the winner) in the primary elections of those voting for that party;

2 people: the woman and man of a different political party that got more votes in the primary elections of those voting for that party;

2 people: the woman and man of a third political party, or independents that got more votes in the primary elections of those voting for that party.

For each office, the top three Replacements of each of the top 3 parties shall attend all staff meetings and formal meetings held by the elected Representatives, Senators, Governors. With immediate effect, a vote by all six of the Replacements can select one of the six to replace the elected Representatives, Senators, Governors, which converts to elected offical to a Replacement status. After an election, at intervals of not less than 3 months, a vote by five of the six of th Replacements can select one of the six to replace the elected Representatives, Senators, Governors, which converts to elected offical to a Replacement status. Independents that get more votes than third party candiates shall displace third party candiates in the list of Replacements.

Appointed Officials and Staff

The President and Governors may only remove appointed officials if 45% of Representatives of each of the two larger political parties agree on the removal.

Appointments

Appointments can be approved by 45% vote in either the House or the Senate. Removal of any appointed officials requires approval by 20% of the House or the Senate.

Pay

The maximum salary to Senators and Representatives shall be one times the median social security monthly payments of the general population, except those with a Body Mass Index below 40 shall have a 20% increase for each point below 40 down to 25 (so 15 points x 40% = 600% | 600% + 100% = 700% times the median social security monthly payments of the general population).

An annual allowance for housing shall not exceed the rate of 4 times the median earnings of the working people in America.

Puerto Rico and Washington DC as states

Puerto Rico and Washington, DC shall become states.

The population of Puerto Rico exceeds the populations of the 21 states. The population of Washington, DC exceeds the populations of Wyoming and Vermont.

 

Budgets, Federal, State, Territory, County, City

Specific guidelines established by law govern the creation of the budget.

Specifically, these are:

• The Federal Congress shall not be involved with setting the national debt levels, or with any over sight of the Administration. Spending, intelligence gathering, defense, etc. shall be completely handled by the Administration.
• Completeness: the budget must include all instances of revenues and expenditures separately.
• Clarity: the budget must be organized along ministry and functional lines.
• Unity: the budget must include all revenues and expenditures
• Accuracy: revenues and expenditures must be estimated based on actual fair market value or expected values. To avoid manipulations, such estimates are conducted by a separate official body.
• The Administration must be set the budget before the fiscal year starts. If there is no budget for the current fiscal year, the previous budget continue in effect with adjustments for inflation and deflation.
• Specificity: expenditures must be designated as falling into a specific area, at a specific time, and at a specific level.
• Publicity: all debates on the budget as well as the final enacted budget are publicly available and accessible. Some expenditures, however, may be classified with appropriate restrictions on who can access information on those.
• With exception of defense spending, the budgets for functional lines (relative to other functions) shall not change by more than 5% per year.

Secret Information

While with the President, Vice President, and selected Appointed Cabinet officers, only military officers and civil servants with a rank equal to Major or higher and with more than 7 years of service shall handle, hold, process, and control the information that is Secret, Top Secret, higher Secret information. No President, Vice President, and selected Appointed Cabinet officers shall lower or ask others to lower the classifications of Secret, Top Secret, higher Secret information.

Except for those mentioned above, the President, Vice President, and selected Appointed Cabinet officers shall be able to view "eyes only", but not to hold or copy any parts of Secret, Top Secret, higher Secret information.

Right to Work and Unions

No one older than 60 years of age shall have tenure.

Relatives of union officials and in-laws of of union officials shall not hold any offices.

All government employees, workers in essential businesses, and workers at sites employing more than 400 people shall have the "Right to Work". Government employees, workers in essential businesses and workers at sites employing more than 400 people shall not have the rights to form collective bargaining groups or unions.

Employees of companies engaged in construction and operations or management of housing, utilities, transporation, railroads, ships, infrastructure, energy production, mining, oil exploration and production shall shall not have the rights to form collective bargaining groups or unions.

Collective bargaining groups or unions shall only be allowed in the following industries: Music, Art (excluding education, architecture, medical), Clothing Fashion (excluding production of clothes, shoes, etc.).

Pensions

All employee and staff pensions shall be portable pensions similar to the 401K pension. There shall be no defined benefit pensions. Unions shall not manage or be involved with the cash flows of any pension or insurance funds or health insurance of benefits, life insurance, disability insurance, etc.

Animals, Birds, Reptiles, etc

Unless authorized by the Dept of Agriculture and the Dept of Health, then individuals, pet stores, corporations, universities, etc. shall not have, sell, or transport non-native Animals, Birds, Reptiles, etc.

Zoos are allowed to keep non-native Animals, Birds, Reptiles, etc. only at elevations that are a minimum of 50 feet above sea level, and are within tornado resistant enclosures.

Hunting

Except for invasive reptiles, civilians shall not hunt (animals, birds, reptiles, or fishes with weapons). Native Americans are allowed to hunt with primitive weapons (no gun powder, no explosive devices, no compressed gases, no aerial drones, no factory made weapons or parts).

Guns

Forty years after this amendment is passed, except for military and law enforcement, each person over the age of 30 years is allowed to have no more that a one long rifle or one long shotgun. Guns shall not hold more 3 bullets. Civilians shall not own, buy, or sell handguns, collectors guns, antique guns, ghost guns, or kits to build guns of any type.

Environment

There shall be no requirements for fuels to contain add ethanol or similar additives that are sourced from farmers.

There shall be no effects for any buildings or sites to attempt to achieve "net zero" or related goals.

There shall be no tax credits, grants, or incentives for environmental measures.

Transit

The districts of each of the Federal Reserve Bank shall manage its portion of federal highway funds for interstates, U.S. highways, tunnels, bridges, ports, subways, trains, public transit, buses, Amtrak, airports (except those fully controlled by the military or used exclusively by law enforcement, fire & medical rescue, and fire fighting, and home land security).etc. as directed by the federal government and within the federal requirements for highways, airports, tunnels, etc.

Federal funds can be spend to help pay for boat and aircraft ramps on waterways, lakes, beaches, etc.

Disasters

No elected officials shall declare a national or state disaster.

Funds to the survivors shall be based on each death or serious injury and the funds not exceed 1/2 of the funds that went to the survivor family each death or serious injury to military person over the past 30 years.

Neither Flood, Fire, Wind, nor Toronado Insurance shall not be offered by any government.

Building related disaster relief and low interest loans shall only be available to housing locations that are

areas are a minimum of 10 feet above the 500 year flood levels and at least 40 feet above sea level, that are not downstream of dams, and levees, and  for buildings that are 200 feet apart and are 100 feet from trees

and shall result in a reduction of other federal funds to a Federal Reserve district over the following 10 years to replay those funds plus interest.

 

Education

Schools and universities (public, private, church, military, etc.) shall not consider race or economic status in their admission processes.

Schools and universities (public, private, church, etc.) shall not have sports (games, track, swim, etc.) with other schools or groups. Schools and universities (public, private, church, etc.) shall not receive payments, valuables, donations, etc. from media, television, internet, etc.

Schools and universities with school sponsored sports, or fraternities or sororities shall not receive any government funds, grants, or loans. Students who join fraternities or sororities or those who play school sponsored sports shall not be eligible for any government funds, grants, or loans.

Pensions and Benefits

Elected and appointed officials pensions and benefits plans shall be of the portable pension type, and shall not exceed one times the median social security monthly payments of the general population, except those with a Body Mass Index below 40 shall have a 20% increase for each point below 40 down to 25 (so 15 points x 40% = 600% | 600% + 100% = 700% times the median social security monthly payments of the general population).

Government and Postal workers pensions shall be of the "portable pension" type, with a cost of living adjustment that is half the rate of the adjustments to those on Social Security. Government and Postal workers shall pay into and receive the benefits of the Social Security program.

Military employees in foreign territory areas of combat or at sea in areas of combat shall earn double credits during each month. Persons exposed to live fire from enemies shall earn credits that equal a minimum that is five times the credits earned by the median American.

Groups and Unions

No Groups or Unions shall provide pensions, benefits plans, health benefits, insurance, etc. No Groups or Unions shall collect funds to pay for pensions, benefits plans, health benefits, insurance, etc.

Tax Exempt Status, including Religious

Associations and foundations (public interest corporations) (with less than 400 members) relating to art, charity, science, religion, social intercourse or otherwise, not engaged in profit are considered juristic persons and are governed by the Civil Code.

At religious and not-for-profit organizations with more than 400 members that are managed by men shall not have Tax Exempt Status.

 

Drivers, Pilots

Drivers of buses, trains, aircraft pilots (passenger and freight aircraft), ships pilots (passenger and auto ferry craft, and ships larger than 40 feet), , power plants, FAA aircraft flight controllers, etc. shall be less than 65 years old. Video and audio recordings of the faces of those described above shall be shared with public safety within 3 to 10 days.

Employee who have consistently demonstrated higher competency (included during simulation, evaluation testing) over a span of 3 years shall be favored from higher paying work. For each year of work beyond age 45, employee seniority credits shall decrease a year (so an individual employees seniority credits reach a maximum when one is age 45, and then decline annually).

Military, Police, Firemen, Prison Guards, etc.

Of those with an honorable rating, who have consistently demonstrated higher competency (included during simulation, evaluation testing) over a span of 3 years shall be favored from higher paying work, and upon reaching 10 years of service, or 55 years of age, military, police and firemen, prison Guards, etc. shall have the option of displacing senior and junior civilian employees in the T.S.A., the U.S. Postal Service, school bus drivers, and similar government jobs, including up to 1/4 of the staff at security checkpoints that typically have a minimum of 4 people, such as Border Crossings.

Military Honors

Military Honors shall be awarded by the Pentagon. The Congressional Medal of Honors and Presidential Citiations shall not be awarded in the future.  

Schools

Home schooling and church schooling shall not allowed for students more than 6 years of age.

High Schools, Middle Schools, and Elementary Schools sizes shall not exceed 400 students per campus. Campuses shall be a minimum of 2,000 feet apart.

All students over the age of 16, including females, and handicapped students at High Schools with more than 100 students per grades shall attend mandatory ROTC classes for one year. Students with unsatisfactory rating in the ROTC classes shall be permanently banned from schools, colleges, and universities for 7 years.

The school district sizes can be 5,000 students, sometimes 12,000, but should not exceed 20,000. Federal and State funding shall be less and less for each additional 1,000 students in School District sizes exceed 12,000 students.

Affirmative action racial and ethnic makeup actions shall not be allowed relative to the admissions of students and faculty at colleges and universities.

Tenure shall expire at age 55.

There shall be no sports competition between schools.

Only mixed gender sports that field a team at the same time shall be encouraged at grade schools and high schools, this exclude relays and sports where one individual at a time is active.

Government Funds and Loans

Religious and Private (for profit and not for profit) educational schools and universities and students shall not receive any government funds, loans, grants, or support.

Students obligation to pay for Government Loans shall survive backrupkty. The duty to repay Government Loans debts shall not be forgiven, reduced, or delayed.

Government insured student loans shall only be for class fees, books, and computers and software.  

College Admissions

Each college shall select students entering college that have a BMI below 30 as well as an ACT SCORE above 18 in English, mathematics, reading, science, writing, music, or students that have special skills (including excellent game playing skills, unassisted eyesight that is better than 20/15 vision), or an honorable rating after 4 years of military service.

All students that receive student loans, scholarships and grants shall be tested for drugs twice a year using samples hair, blood, urine, etc.; those that fail two drug test shall be banned for 7 years from receiving government aid for schooling.

Student loans, scholarships and grants shall only go to students that have a BMI below 28 as well as a ACT SCORE above 20, who also maintain an honorable rating in ROTC.

Students with ACT SCORE above 24 are not required to take ROTC classes. Increasingly more generous loans, grants, support and stipends shall go to students with higher ACT SCORES above 24.

Students with ACT SCORES above 32 (that are attending a university that has at least 8 Nobel Prize Winners) shall receive a full scholarship with room, board, and a monthly stipend equal to a rate that is one times that of the median earnings of the working citizens in the U.S.

Non-citizen students with ACT SCORES above 34 (that are attending a university that has at least 12 Nobel Prize Winners) shall receive a full scholarship with room, board, and a monthly stipend equal to a rate that is 1/2 that of the median earnings of the working citizens in the U.S.

 

New Capital District and City

Select a new area, say of size up to 400 square miles or more, to become federal lands for a new Capital of the U.S.A. For comparison purposes, the Hanford Site in Washington state covers 586 square miles.

Use eminent domain to seize all of the properties. Pay based on the adjusted market values that the properties had 20 years before the site was put on the list of potential sites.

Perhaps 10% of the area would be water covered (that also serve as storm water retention ponds), and 20% of the area would be parks and nature. Over 95% of the shores of waters shall be natural, without docks, boardwalks, or buildings within 50 feet.

As the boundary the Capital District expands, lands and properties within a 10 mile radius of the current shall become federal owned lands and properties within 40 years.

The properties values shall be adjusted to reflect the median properties values of similar sites that were never on the list of potential sites.

The New Capital District could be a minimum of 200 miles away from Washington, D.C.

Some of the existing operations in the Washington, D.C. could continue to operate as duplicate sites to those in or near the New Capital District.

At the government choice, Federally owned land inside the New Capital District could be make available for evergreen contract leases (not to exceed 60 years). The Evergreen contract could renewed automatically from year to year until canceled by the either party by giving 1 to 7 years of notice.

Sunlight inside the Buildings

For more sunlight inside the buildings, the longer side of buildings could be in the East West direction.

Solar panels could only be place on the south facing walls. The roofs could be green space and parks.

Large trees could be a minimum of 70 feet to 300 feet from buildings.

Highways, Major Roads, Railroads, Bus lanes, etc.

Highways, and roads could have overhead open well for natural ventilation and light; with to other parts covered by parks, and green spaces.

Highways, major roads could be one-way with a minimum of 2,000 feet separations between roads in the opposite directions. Gate communities, offices, retail, or parks could be on the 2,000 foot wide separations. Some interstate highways have wide separations where a single rest area serves travelers in both directions. See Kansas I-70 bi-directional Rest Area E/W Bidirectional Access at Mile Marker 209.

Only new dedicated streets that are spaced a minimum of 2,000 feet apart shall be connected to state or U.S. highways.

Interstates, Freight Railroads, and Hazardous Materials

Interstates could be in multiple loops around the sections of the District. There could be a minimum of 2,000 feet separations between lanes that travel in the opposite directions. The interstates could be on manmade elevated hills, perhaps 30 to 300 feet above the elevations in the District.

Limited use, low speed, controlled access, above ground roadbeds for emergency, construction, hazardous materials could travel on gravel paths, or paths that a submerged 24" below water. Such roadbeds could have barriers across the roads to block normal traffic.

Underground Streets

Underground suburban streets patterns of cul-de-sac streets could be favored instead of the grid layouts of streets., Multiple cul-de-sac streets could extend in a star pattern from a roundabout (traffic circle with a diameter of at least 600 feet) that connects to one to three collector streets to the other parts of the District. The limited numbers of collector streets would allow police to operate roadblocks during a search for criminals. Some interstate entrance and exit ramps have permanent gates that are closed during snow and ice storms in western Kansas along interstate I-70.

Urban Planning

There are large, enclosed, communal gardens at the housing on Crown Street in Glasgow, Scotland.

Airport Fencing

Parts of the District nearest the White House, The Capital, The CIA, The Pentagon, etc. could be a Gated community with closed streets like #10 Downing Street in London, UK. Aor a Closed city where travel or residency restrictions are applied so that specific authorization is required to visit or remain overnight. There might be elements similar to a military base, New Zealand, getting access to the set of Saturday Night Live, and Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Screening facilities similar to those used by the T.S.A. at airports could manage access.

The Savannah River Site covers 310 square miles. The Beale Air Force Base covers 36 square miles. New York City covers 300 square miles of land and 168 square miles of water.

Russian land based missile silos have 5 rings of fencing with generous gaps between each ring.

Valleys, Canyons, Hills, Mountains, Barricades, and Moats

Natural or man made mountains, elevated interstates and railroads and canyons could add limited advantages against straight line winds, and it could challenges to attacks by civilian aircraft (like the September 11 attacks), surface skimming cruise missiles and drones. High value buildings could be inside crooked canyons.

"Artificial barricade" means an artificial mound or revetted wall of earth of a minimum thickness of three feet.

"Barricaded" means that a building containing explosives is effectually screened from a magazine, building, railway, or highway, either by a natural barricade, or by an artificial barricade of such height that a straight line from the top of any sidewall of the building containing explosives to the eave line of any magazine, or building, or to a point 12 feet above the center of a railway or highway, will pass through such intervening natural or artificial barricade.

Moats “With a depth of seventeen feet and a twelve-foot-wide gap, [the] ultramodern high-security trench is lined with anti-climbing blast-resistant steel. Combined with an all-weather drainage and filtration system, the trench features a state-of-the-art self-cleaning mechanism capable of deploying a decoagulant spray (or other chemical agent) at a rate of 40 gallons per minute.”

Air Defence Radar, Communications Towers

A series of rings of Air Defence Radar, Communications Towers can be built that are 1,000 feet taller than the highest ground elevations in a 5 mile radius. The Air Defence towers are intended to warn of attacks like the cruise missiles attack to the Saudi Arabia oil complex in 2019.

Elevation above 500 year flood level

Over 70% of the land area shall be at least 100 feet above the 500 year flood level so that underground roads, tunnels, etc. stay dry.

Aircraft Operations inside the District

Selected parks and waterways can be arranged for Aircraft Operations. The long dimensions can align with the directions of prevailing winds to help aircraft land and take off. The he first First Lady of the United States to fly in the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey.

Monuments, Cemeteries, etc.

Relocate all Monuments, Cemeteries, wind mills, solar farms, etc. outside the District.

Places of Assembly

Churches, entertainment buildings, conference rooms, stores, etc. shall not contain more than 400 people.

Future Districts

Make plans to build and move to future districts in the future, say every 100 to 200 years. The future districts could be a minimum of 200 miles apart.

 

Public Housing

Long term (50 year leases) shall be sold to the tenants in government owned housing with the provision that the buyer and subsequent buyers must live full time in the housing and are not allowed to sub-rent the housing. The land rights shall be retained by the government. Except on remote islands, Persons who fail drug tests shall be removed from government owned lands. Persons that live on government owned lands shall be tested for drugs annually.

See Privatization, the Right to Buy policy in the United Kingdom which gives secure tenants of councils and some housing associations the legal right to buy, at a large discount, the council house they are living in, the Miracle of Chile and Chicago Boys. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_Buy#Right_to_Buy_rules_after_2005

United States Military Academy

The United States Military Academy shall be relocated a minimum of 400 miles away from West Point, New York.

Elected or appointed officials shall not appoint students to any United States Military Academy or military commission.

No Gambling

There shall be no gambling, lotteries, betting, etc., in any form within the U.S. and U.S. territories and waters. No funds, credits, etc. of any kind shall be transferred to or from accounts in the U.S. to or from (anywhere in the world) casinos, ships, lotteries, organizations, individuals, groups, etc. that have gambling, lotteries, betting, etc.

Religion

All Religion Money, donations, gifts, bequests, etc. shall be collected, accounted and managed solely by females. Church and religious actions shall not own, lease or rent:

mansions, foreign buildings or land, schools, colleges, universities, aircraft, luxury vehicles, boats, ships, or permanent housing for staff, (except at ordinary, average, median housings at part-time camps).

Only females shall attend and manage Religious Offices, Boards, Conventions, Committees, etc.

Males shall not preach or speak on TV, video, radio, internet, etc. that are linked to religion, or church services, talk shows, blogs, etc.

No Organizations shall fund end of Life ... "Make a Wish" etc.

No Organizations shall fund end of Life, such as "Make a Wish" activities, parties, etc.

No Government funding of Sports, or Sports facilities

Except parks and recreation, public park activities for mixed sex team sports, and recreational non-competitive swimming, boating, boat ramps, and fishing, for Game Wardens to manage Hunting and Fishing,

there shall be Government funding of Sports, Sports facilities, Sports stadiums, Sports arenas, indoor swimming pools, land, roads, utilities, etc. for professional, state, county, or local sports, or sports with less than half males and half females, etc.

No Males elected or appointed officials shall vote, discuss or be involved with Women's Health

No Males shall vote, discuss, or be involved with Women's Health related laws, guidelines, etc.

Memorials, Naming

Laws, Acts of Congress, programs, buildings, bridges, roadways, districts shall be named for live people that won a Nobel prize of for persons working in the military, medical, science, technology, information, mathematics, architecture, engineering. Those that attempt or travel to space, as well as or elected or appointed officials are excluded.

Historic Districts

Historic Districts shall expire every 30 years, unless women of less than 40 years of age vote to retain a Historic District where they live.

Refrigerator, Samsung

Try slightly closing the water valve at the wall behind the refrigerator. This might extend the freeze up time from weeks to several months or longer.

Or more extensive work shown at the link below ... use an inspection mirror to view the hose above the ice bin ... and if the hose extends as shown in the pictures, then cut the hose shorter as described in the link. https://www.slideshare.net/darlincolladodejesus/samsungfdbmrefrigeratorsservicebulletinicemakersfreezingover

High water pressure (above 45 psi) can make mist and fog. most yard water sprinkler systems are designed to use pressures of around 30 psi. https://www.apexhose.com/water-distribution-blog/which-pressure-is-required-for-your-sprinkler-system

See http://www.theinvisibleblog.com/2016/08/fixing-samsung-ice-maker.html Monday, August 29, 2016

Fixing a Samsung Ice Maker

Service Bulletin document number in the comments of my original post on this issue.  So now I have a copy of the PDF here: ASC20150717001 (if you don’t trust the link, just search the doc. title on Google). 

Looking at the service bulletin is the easiest way to address everything, but I’ll lay things out here as well (though in less detail).

In order for the ice maker to operate properly, a water pressure of 20 PSI~125 PSI (pound per square inch) is required. https://www.samsung.com/hk_en/support/home-appliances/what-is-the-water-pressure-required-for-installing-water-line/

Google search terms: samsung refrigerator self diagnostic mode

https://www.manualslib.com/manual/1228428/Samsung-Rf28hmedbsr.html?page=60#manual

4-1-1. Test mode (manual operation / manual defrost function) • If Freezer Key + Lighting Key on the front of panel are pressed simultaneously for 8 seconds , it will be changed to the test mode and all displays on the front of panel will be off. • If any key on the front of panel is pressed within 15 seconds after the test mode, it will be operated as below sequence : Manual operation1(FF) Manual operation2(OF r) -> manual defrost of fresh food compartments(rd) -> manual defrost of fresh and freezer compartments(Fd) -> cancel(Display all off) • If any key on the front of panel is not pressed within 15 seconds after the test mode, the test mode will be canceled and it will be returned to previous mode.

Press “Energy Saver” (left, bottom) and “Frig” (right, middle). FF = Compressor and Fan will run OF r = Compressor will run but not fan Rd = Fresh Food in Defrost FD = full frige in Defrost and all heaters will be on

Unplug and replug power to restore normal operations.

https://www.slideshare.net/darlincolladodejesus/samsungfridgeserviceinfo