Template:2023 NZ election forecasts
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[1]
On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice".[2] In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election.[3] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.[4] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori.[5] On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.[6]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | TPM | NZF | Total | ||
| 2023 election result[7] 14 Oct 2023 |
34 | 48 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| 1 News–Verian[8] 7–10 Oct 2023 poll |
35 | 47 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Newshub–Reid Research[9] 5–10 Oct 2023 poll |
35 | 43 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Guardian Essential[10] 4–8 Oct 2023 poll |
39 | 44 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[11] 4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll |
33 | 39 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[12] 1–4 Oct 2023 poll |
35 | 46 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[13] 22–28 Sep 2023 poll |
34 | 47 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[14] 28–30 Aug 2023 poll |
34 | 46 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
References
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ Swift, Molly. "NZ First leader Winston Peters rules out coalition with Labour". Newshub. No. 19 November 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
- ^ Franke-Bowell, Jonah; McConnell, Glenn (13 April 2023). "'Highly unlikely' Christopher Luxon will partner with Te Pāti Māori or 'socialist' Greens". Stuff. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
- ^ McConnell, Glenn (11 Jan 2023). "Te Pāti Māori plans for a big 2023, but happy to stay cross bench". Stuff. Retrieved 11 Jan 2023.
- ^ McConnell, Glenn (10 May 2023). "National's Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party". Stuff. Retrieved 10 May 2023.
- ^ "'Instability and chaos' - Labour rules out a partnership with NZ First". RNZ. 27 August 2023. Retrieved 27 August 2023.
- ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (11 October 2023). "Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make". 1 News.
- ^ Lynch, Jenna (11 October 2023). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: National right to panic as support plummets, New Zealand First surges". Newshub.
- ^ Graham-McLay, Charlotte (10 October 2023). "Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Labour picks up steam days out from election". The Guardian.
- ^ "New Zealand set for a new Prime Minister and a three-party governing coalition: National, ACT & NZ First". Roy Morgan. 13 October 2023.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 6 October 2023.
- ^ Trevett, Claire (5 October 2023). "Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping". New Zealand Herald.
- ^ Vance, Andrea (7 September 2023). "Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort". The Post.