Talk:Hubbert peak theory/Archive 5

This article is incredibly absurd...

Let me try and explain this as clearly as possible, with a quick example:

Let's say there was an article on the Ptolemic geocentric model of the solar system.

The article would have tremendous detail on how Ptolemy thought up the geocentric, the intricacies of the mechanism of the geocentric model, other major historic figures involved in the geocentric model, and so on and on in great detail.

However, it would be incredibly absurd if it was not mentioned (perhaps just in passing!  :) ) that, yes, the Ptolemic geocentric model of the solar system has been utterly superceded!

We now come to a VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION: do you want the Wiki to be JUST A BLOG, i.e. a place where facts are presented in what can only be described as "stunningly favorable light" so as to perhaps make a political point (or, whatever the hell is going on here), or, should the Wiki present the actual factual reality of the world?

Which is it? Everyone reading this needs to CAREFULLY ASK THEMSELVES that question.

The utterly, totally, flabbergastingly overwhelming reality of Hubbert peak theory is that:

ONE. Hubbert was talking STRICTLY ABOUT ****light crude****

TWO. Everyone including Hubbert has always known that there are incomprehensibly vast reserves of various forms of low quality oil - TENS OF **THOUSANDS** of times more low quality oil forms than ****light crude****

THREE. In Hubbert's day, everyone dismissed the unimaginably vast quantities of low quality oil around, and was concerned only about ****light crude****

FOUR. Whether or not Hubbert was correrct is now (today, 2005) utterly irrelevant because the mind-bogglingly huge reserves of various forms of low quality oil are NOW IN PLAY.

Hence, the idea of not AT LEAST MENTIONING that the central reality of Hubbert peak theory is that it has been utterly superceded and is now a historical curiosity -- exactly like Ptolemy's Earth-centrered model of the solar system -- is incredibly, profoundly, silly.

You have to understand this is the CENTRAL REALITY of Hubbert peak thoery .. that it was an interesting historical curiosity from the days when only LIGHT crude mattered, and we couldn't access the TENS OF THOUSANDS of times MORE barrels laying around basically everwhere in low quality oil forms.

Please read the following:

"Humanity uses about 345 Quadrillion BTU of all types of fossil fuel each year (as of 2005). Oil shale deposits (for example) hold at least 10 million Quadrillion BTU. As 10 million divided by 345 is about 25,000, there are (at least) twenty-five thousand years supply of hydrocarbon fuels easily available at current consumption rates. However, traditionally (from 1900 through to say 1990), only conventional light crude oil was economic for petroleum production: using oil shale, oil sands, or other varieties would increase the final cost substantially, perhaps doubling or tripling the final price of gasoline.

Although underreported by the mainstream media, tremendous technological advances in the processing of low grades of oil (such as shale oil) from 1990 to present, and the enormous present multi-billion dollar investment in Alberta's tar sands, are soon to make the issue of the availability of ("conventional") crude oil irrelevant. However, 49 years ago, output of crude oil was a critical political and economic issue."

I typed those two paras out as an opening for the article to try and shake the article from the realm of "totally nutty gibberish" -- that is to say, as if someone, perhaps an Astrologer, was discussing Ptolemic theory in all seriousness, "not mentioning" the fact that the sun is now generally thought to be the middle of the solar system! -- into something more usuable and realistic.

I certainly encourage any and all to improve on or totally redo these paragraphs or do the same job altogether differently.

But at the moment, as it stands, this article is simply *nutty*.

I encourage anyone to try to work in to the article, the CENTRAL REALITY of Hubbert peak theory, to wit that Hubbert peak theory ONLY concerns ****light crude**** and ignores the staggeringly large reserves (ie, TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TIMES BIGGER than all the world's light crude) of low quality forms of oil.

It is truly incredibly silly not to "mention" this!

As I say above ... "We now come to a VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION: do you want the Wiki to be JUST A BLOG, i.e. a place where facts are presented in what can only be described as "stunningly favorable light" so as to perhaps make a political point (or, whatever the hell is going on here), or, should the Wiki present the actual factual reality of the world?"

• HMMM... your ignorance in something. If there is such a huge supply can you explain why lite crude is now getting resistance at $62/b? Up over $10 from a year alone. And why is gas is over $3.00 a gallon and why is seemingly everyone is saying this is the end of cheap oil... it goes on and on... why is China now having to buy oil from other countries... why is the Middle East at 99% production capacity... why did we attack Iraq for the chemical weapons that didn’t exist or was it for the 2nd largest pristine oil reserves? why... why... why...blog... blog... blog?!? Isn't everything a blog? H0riz0n

HMMM... If Iraq was all about the effing oil, you'd figure a President who'd conventiently use the slaughter of 3,000 people to go to war against a conveniently fascistic dictator responsible for killing six figures' worth of his nation's own citizens merely for the EFFING OIL (--ooo, that clever, clever cad!) would also be able to summon up the gumption to move his hand across his Oval Office desk to his pen and legal pad, and scrawl out an Executive Order opening up ANWAR. Yes...yes...that's what any reasonable, thoughtful, contemplative person might muse. But elementary logic neither inhabits nor inhibits the smooth cerebrums of unhinged political partisans, now does it?--Mike18xx 10:50, 2 April 2006 (UTC)

• Hubberts theory mostly focus on the U.S. which was most definately not arab light sweet.
• Hubberts theorys can be applied to most any non renewable resource if you plug the right numbers in. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Carbonate (talk • contribs) 10:42, June 8, 2006 (UTC)

Reply ... with reply to reply

First, the "tens of thousand" more heavy oil than lightr crude is false. To get this figure, you probably included all organic content in the lithosphere, as if there was a remote chance to get anything usable from a 5 km deep shale with 1% of kerogen. You are confusing "light oil" with "conventional oil". What you categorized as "low-grade oil" is, for a large part, not oil at all (kerogen).

Second, there is a important notion you ignored : net energy yield. The vast majority of low grade fossil "fuels", like deep oil shale, would consume more energy to extract than they would give to the end user. Already, the Athabasca oil sands have a self-consumption of about 30% - that could be reduced to some 25% with advanced technology.

Reply: Dude. Trillions of barrels, times 70% (hell, let's say self-consumption is NINETY FIVE PERCENT.. ok?), so we'll say trillions of barrels times 5% is still ....... trillions of barrels. It's pretty simple stuff. Your point is pointless: no offense. I suggest, take a drive up to Alberta and see the state of the industry. If you are relying on mainstream media news, your viewpoint would be quite wrong. Regarding your comments on "environmental" concerns:

The small-scale oil shale projects that were tested had a near-zero net energy yields - except in Estonia, but the shales they used were among the richest known.

Third, extraction rate is as important as reserves. Non conventional oil (biodegraded oil, bitumen, oil heavier than water...) is very difficult to take out. Kerogen from shale is even worst. Even if these resources are in the trillions of barrels, they won't provide much help if we can only get a few million barrels out per day.

Fourth, non-conventional has an high environmental cost. CO2 emissions on a full-cycle basis (from well to end use) are much higher. There are other problems like the destruction of ecosystems (for open-pit production of both oil shale of oil sands), water use (especially for oil shale), water pollution, disposal of wastes (for oil shales)... These environmental costs would become catastrophic is non-conventional production was to be upscaled to the same range of output than current conventional production.

Reply: I'm not sure what the point here is. So, there is a practically unlimited amount of oil available -- you agree? -- but you're saying certain political decisions make it not possible to use that .. or? (Regarding CO2 and the current political fad for concern about "carbon emissions" .. so what? It is trivial to capture CO2 from any stack, at another small reduiction in self-consumption. Right? So .. what's the point here?)

The simple, trivial, stark reality is this article (as it stands currently) is *really, really dumb*. The trivial reality is that "peak oil" theory is simply redundant -- much as in the sense of my "Ptolemic system" example -- because it is trivial to get what can only be called practically unlimited amounts of petrol from oil sands, oil tars, etc.

Regarding your "catastrophic" comment. Imagine the planet .. now picture the State of Colorado. Let's say, that ALL of Colorado (every square inch!) was turned in to a steel cube, and in return we had enough petrol to lasty for 10s of thousands of years. In what way would that be catastrophic?

I'm guessing that (no offense) you are basically an "environmentalist" and you are *fundamentally opposed* to petrol use. If so, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that ... that's a respectable and logical position. But you would be completely fooling yourself and peeing in the wind if you ignore enormous and simple realities, you know? Ignoring that or trying to pretend it does not exist, would not help your cause at all you know?

Again -- the point here is, it is utterly crazy - madness - to have a long complex article with endless detail on the arcane points of Hubbert peak theory, and not "mentioning in passing" that it is utterly out of date and completely redundant. But hey -- the Wiki is what *you* make it. If you want it to be "bizarre" - it's your Wiki.

Using the value of 5.8 million BTU per barrel of oil, if there is a trillion barrels of oil equivalent in oil shale reserves, this would yield a total of 5.8 million trillion BTU. Where did you come up with the figure of 10 million quadrillion BTU for oil share reserves?

Even if the energy content of oil shale is as vast as you claim, saying it without describing the costs of developing those resources is absurd.

What are you referring to here? It doesn't make a lot of sense. Self-consumption (simply, the amount of "itself" you need to use to refine it down to usable petrol) for low-grade oils is down to say 30%. But let's say it was 50%. Or 80%. So what? 70% or even only 20% of a really large number is ... a really large number. ~~

Can you give us a source of information to validate the assertion that "Oil shale deposits (for example) hold at least 10 million Quadrillion BTU"? Jkintree 04:37, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

Your "solar" example is very confused. Note that oil is TRIVIALLY recoverable...just grab a shovel, or in the case of conventional oil drill a hole. (Indeed, low grade oil mining is dead simple, you just get a big scoop and some trucks. It's like quarrying gravel.) In contrast solar energy is rather *difficult* to recover. once you do recover solar energy, it is a nice form of energy, "ready to wear" ... in contrast once you recover oil sands, you have to waste 30%, 50% or 70% on self-consupmtion.

Can you tell us how much oil has been produced from oil shale in the last ten years, to substantiate the claim that oil is trivially recoverable? Jkintree 15:50, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

One could also make the point that the solar radiation striking the surface of planet Earth is 757,700 quadrillion BTU per year (http://www.geocities.com/combusem/SOLAR.HTM), but unless there is an economical way to convert that solar energy into usable energy, it is not much help.

One could make that point, but it would be a bit silly.  :) Solar energy - hard to recover. Conventional oil, fairly easy to recover. Low grade oil forms ... exceedingly easy to recover. (However, 30%, 50%, 70% of your profit then -- after recovery -- goes straight down the drain in "self-consumption" to refine it down. However, 20% of the proifit of "a God-awful lot" is still "a darn lot," you see?)

Actually, if anything makes oil shale viable, it will be the peak in the world's production of conventional oil, and the resulting increase in prices paid for oil. This article on peak oil has a section "Alternatives to conventional oil" that contains a link to an article for "Alternative fuel," and that article contains a link to an article on oil shale. That's where the information you want to push belongs.

Ahhh ... so now we come to it. The "information I want to push" .. heh. Well, there you have it ... the WiKi. Lol.

Finally, M. King Hubbert did describe oil shale reserves in his 1956 paper, with oil shale accounting for about 10% of the fossil fuels initially present. He stated that oil shale reserves have barely begun to be developed. That observation is mostly correct to this date. Jkintree 02:46, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Restored Archive

So who archived away an active debate I was having with Ben? I have pasted back the latter part of what was being said Sandpiper 17:32, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

---

AN OPEN LETTER TO AMERICA’S BABY BOOMERS, FORMERLY KNOWN AS ‘THE SILENT MAJORITY: TIME TO SPEAK UP, GUYS.

You are the guys who handed America over to the neocons. You, the Baby Boomers, the guys sitting now with not quite enough medical aid to keep things going. You. "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we’re running out of energy in America.”

- US President George Bush, May 2001

No one listened. “Falling oil production will change the world.” - John Vidal, THE GUARDIAN

LONDON Wednesday, Apr 27, 2005, Page 9

No one listened. "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye." - US ‘peak oil’ analyst, April, 2005 Who would listen to that? “Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global Peak Oil." - Matt Savinar - Life After The Oil Crash (LATOC), 2005 No one listened. "Peak oil" refers to Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert’s peak oil theory announced in 1956 which predicted a global oil peak in 1970 that didn’t happen. Thirty-five years later peak oil is suddenly a widely and hotly debated subject because the global financial system is entirely dependent on a constantly increasing supply of oil. And we may just have entered the second, decreasing, half of the oil age. Oil peak is the point at which half the total oil known to have existed in a field or a country [or a planet] has been consumed (peaked), beyond which extraction goes into irreversible decline. By ‘debated’ I refer to the shrill flurries of accusation and counter accusation in the global oil markets today (filled with speculators mind you who tend to take your eyes off the ball): All available evidence points to the FACT that we are about to fall, or have already fallen, onto the ‘downslope’ of peak oil’s irreversible decline. Part of the debate is that it is ‘common cause’ that the United States does not base any long-term policies that take peak oil data into consideration. Perhaps that cause is no longer so common as a new US government-sponsored report obtained by Aljazeera.net says the US is now starting to do exactly that. Get into line, folks, for gas and oil ... and get some serious blankets for the coming winter.

“US report acknowledges peak-oil threat”

- Adam Porter, Perpignan, France. Wednesday 09 March 2005, 18:23 Makka Time, 5:23 GMT “Authored by Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling and titled The Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, the report is an assessment requested by the US Department of Energy (DoE), National Energy Technology Laboratory. “It was prepared by Hirsch, who is a senior energy programme adviser at the private scientific and military company, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). “They work extensively on defence and geopolitical issues for clients, including many for the US government. “While global information for predicting this “event” is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous curve that predicted the U.S. oil production peak, there are indications that most of the large exploration targets have been found, at the same time that the world’s population is exploding.” - L. F. Ivanhoe, Novum Corp., Ojai, California from WORLD OIL, October 1995 Adam Porter adds that this “brand new senior-level report on "peak oil" is unprecedented in US government circles. It is not just the existence of the report itself that is such a landmark in the current oil debate. Its conclusions also pull no punches. Uncertain timing "World oil peaking is going to happen," he says. “Only the timing is uncertain". The Guardian’s John Vidal agrees, saying that the wake of the Iraq war, the rapid economic rise of China, global warming and recent record oil prices have shifted the debate from “if” there is a global peak to “when”. Add hurricane Katrina - and whatever else is coming our way - to the growing certainty of the timing. “But,” says (Oxford awarded) Doctor Colin Campbell in a message that he has repeated to businessmen, academics and investment analysts at a recent Edinburgh conference, "don't worry about oil running out; it won't for very many years.” That is not the point! "The issue,” adds Campbell graciously, “is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways." That decline begins at the point of global peak production of conventional oil and, while it may not run out ‘for very many years’ the ‘radical and unpredictable ways’ it will decline are the concern. OK let’s look at it from a dying man’s point of view: A 200 lb human being has about 70% or 140 lbs of water integral to the system. If the person enters into a dehydrative decline the internally integrated delivery sytems (and all other water-dependent systems) will probably fail when some 10 to 15% of the water is gone. After ‘peak oil’ we are all running out of petrol, and that petrol can not only not be topped up but will become more and more scarce and more and more expensive. Starting now and watch what happens when we hit the 15 to 20% shortfall across the planet. Dr. Campbell writes in The Financial Consequences of Peak Oil, “the continued expansion of this (global) wealth is only possible so long as the oil supply continues to expand...” Dr. Campbell is considered a consummate industry man who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Center. Vidal says Cambell’s the best man for the job because he’s retired, “he has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries. “Campbell reckons global peak production of conventional oil -- the kind associated with gushing oil wells -- is approaching fast, perhaps even ...” (2006). This may be the reason for the apparent confusion in the marketplace from oil producers blaming inadequate refining capacities on Katrina and buyers blaming deliberately slow production for shortages, to OPEC’s blaming China on pushing up prices because of her huge and rapidly climbing demand. All of which, again, tends to pull your eye off the ball. The point is that when ‘peak oil’ is reached, the ‘downward’ slope is over ever-steeper social and economic downsides that we cannot, after two hundred years of cheap energy, really imagine. Has it already happened? An increasing number of theorists believes some peak in world oil production has already occurred. After Hurricane Katrina, Saudi Arabia admitted that it simply could not increase production to make up for the loss of Gulf of Mexico oil rigs – see Wikipedia. This was widely believed, albeit speculatively, to be the beginning of a final oil crisis, in which there will be no choice but to radically curtail the use of oil. A week after Katrina long gas lines were reported in Denver, Indianapolis, Hartford, Conn., Atlanta and Orlando, Fla., among other cities across America. In North Carolina’s capital city Charlotte, “between 13% and 15% of stations had no gasoline and prices have soared as much as 70 cents a gallon in those stations that still have fuel to peddle”, said AAA official there Tom Crosby. While global demand is expected to grow by nearly two million barrels a day this year -- from 82.5 million barrels a day last year - the world's capacity to refine and process crude oil is expected to grow by less than half that, according to the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. How does this affect the global economy? (CONDENSED FROM LATOC): Central banks are fully aware of the severity of what we are facing as they, more than any other institutions, know that debt service requires economic growth in proportion to the size of the debt. When you borrow money, you borrow with the expectation that there will be more money available to you in the future than there is now so you can pay back both the principal and the the interest. If we posit money as really just a symbol for oil, you are actually borrowing with the expectation - whether you realize it or not - that there will be more oil available to you in the future than there is now. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) "the central banker's central bank” does not perhaps believe so much in that oil-money parity anymore. This from a warning regarding the economic fallout of further rises in the price of oil: “Oil prices may well remain high for a prolonged period of time ... Further rises - if they materialize - may have more severe consequences than currently anticipated ... Everyone needs to commit to some unpleasant compromises now, in order to avoid even more unpleasant alternatives in the future ...”  Bank of International Settlements, June 28, 2005 Gary Duncan, the economics editor for the UK based Sunday Times further summarizes the BIS report: “The US current account deficit meant that a further slide in the dollar was "almost inevitable", while the BIS sounded a warning that the deficit could yet lead to "a disorderly decline of the dollar, associated turmoil in other financial markets, and even recession." Make no mistake: a bank as crucially important to the world economy and as influential to the markets as the BIS doesn't just casually toss out terms like "unpleasant compromises", "severe consequences", "even more unpleasant alternatives", "turmoil," and "disorderly decline" in relation to the oil markets and the dollar (which is the reserve currency for all oil transactions in the world) unless something very nasty is brewing in the background. One of George W. Bush's energy advisors, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, has spoken at length about the impending crisis. (Simmons' investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world). Given that background, what Simmons has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded: “It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health - greater than anyone could ever imagine. When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded: “I don’t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. “After that it’s a certainty.” In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. Simmons explained that with oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon. Simmons predictions are downright tame compared to what other analysts in the world of investment banking are preparing themselves for. For instance, in April 2005, French investment bank Ixis-CIB warned, "crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015." If you want to ponder just how devastating oil prices in the $200-$400/barrel range will be for the US economy, consider the fact that one of Osama Bin-Laden's primary goals has been to force oil prices into the $200 range. You cannot remain silent any more.

Tom Dennen (With thanks to innumerable sources).

Enter Causation / Correlation Confusion

The Diff [1]

If you read further up the article - it is claimed the "Production Peaked in 2004." Yes - I added the paragraph which translates a peak in production - to a peak in demand. Production and demand are linked. You suggest that demand will go up - what you mean I think, is that the number of people interested in buying oil at "today's" price would continue to grow. That is a simplistic view of demand. In fact, the price will go higher as the probability of future depletion becomes more certain - a transition which will in all liklyhood take place slowly, and at a rate controlled by the discount rate. Today we see Oil companies unmotivated to take on debt in order to increase refining production. This is a simple statement of market equilibrium, and strongly suggests that oil companies, realizing that their underground resource is not expanding, are content to sell their stock slowly into a high-demand market rather than to sell the entire stock as quickly as possible. In many respects, oil companies are like the ants stockpiling food for the winter (except they don't do that part) but nonetheless, they are sitting on a winter's store of oil. The politicians would like them to sing and dance and sell their oil fast and cheap; but being wise - they choose to store their fuel for the winter, and sell us no more than we really need. - good for them. And when they think the price will rise by more than the discount rate, they will hoard it - until the demand raises prices sufficiently to cover the loss of future revenue. This balancing act is continuous and includes market forces with the probability of future depletion in a stable free-market rational market. Hubbert's (and friends) proposition that market forces will be insufficient to smooth the transition to a post-oil economy is unsubstantiated. Benjamin Gatti 22:36, 19 November 2005 (UTC)

All scenarios about peak oil and its aftermath are unsubstantiated; it hasn't happened yet. The issue is, you felt compelled by your point of view to translate the article to say "the demand for oil peaked in 2004," which is clearly false. In spite of your fancy verbiage explaining why you wrote that, pushing POV translations is the kind of thing that diminishes the quality of the article.

You seem to think that proponents of the theory of peak oil are clueless about market forces. If you pay attention, you will notice that informed proponents do not say we are running out of oil. They say we are running out of cheap oil. The debate is over the timing, speed, and severity of the transition.

In your paragraph above, you stated that "the discount rate" is the factor that will control the rate of the transition. That sounds like a term from economics. A factor that other people are watching very closely is "the decline rate." After an oil field peaks, how quickly does the production decline? To the dismay of the United Kingdom, the decline rate in the North Sea is much higher than expected. If the decline rate at Cantarell and Burgan, and yes, at Ghawar, turn out to be higher than expected, the transition is likely to bumpy. We don't know. We're watching, and hopefully, practicing prudent risk management. Jkintree 18:00, 20 November 2005 (UTC)

You've said a few things here that I want to agree with. We should put more emphasis on the "timing, speed, and severity of the transition" As you say. Hubbert's theory is far more than the obvious "someday we will run out of oil" It appears to me to be "when we run out of oil (which I predict will be X) we are going to run out fast and hard." Therefore we could run out of oil, and Hubbert could be wrong. Hubbert would be meaningful only if - in your terms, the decline rate is both a. steep and b. coincidental - that is most oil fields experiencing the decline simultaneously. We accept that he could be wrong about the dates - and still right about this decline thing.

The flip side - is that oil speculation - for all its cost - involves a lot of people paying attention to this problem, researching the problem, and doing their best to determine the future availability of oil. It seems to me that if the future cost of oil is likley to beat the discount rate - that would be a hold signal, and would trigger hording - but only to a point. The point being that the price would rise until it waas once again more profitable to sell the oilt now at todays lower price, than to hold the oil and sell it later at tomorrow's higher price. That calculation is used by every business, even if it is not fully calculated - hotels know they can charge more for friday night, vacation homes know they can charge more during the summer, plywood salesmen know they can get a higher price during a hurricane. Ticket scalpers know they can sell tickets at a higher price if their team has a winning season. All of these businesses set the "daily price" by considering the potential value if they hold onto their stock until the value goes up. Quite likely, if the value is going up faster than the value of time (the discount rate) then it makes sense to hold onto reserves. Thus - the present price of oil includes the speculation that tomorrow's price could be higher, and as a consequence, future depletion will, as soon as it is known to exist, have a smooth effect on the price, and trigger a transformation from an oil race (and that's what we have) to a conservation race.

The "oil race" is a race by industrialized nations to acquire technologies and economic scale by consuming energy at the fastest rate they can afford. The US and Chinese both see energy consuption as a way of gaining critical mass for their economies - necessary to fund a war machine, necessary to develop technologies for building defense technologies etc ... Allowing the Chinese to over-consume us on energy would mean allowing them to overtake us in military matters as well. Consequentially - the "Oil Race" is a race to the bottom in which both sides are trying to bankrupt the other sooner (In this case bankrupcy means come to the end of their resources). From a balance of power standpoint, oil is irrelevent - so long as we get more benefit from it while it exists than do our competitors. If the only concern was ensuring the military dominance of the US, it would be rational to overconsume oil - because the depletion, when it does hit - would bankrupt poor countries first - ensuring the dominance of the lone superpower. I think this is why the President puts an emphasis on "energy intensity" or some double-speak word which means that rich nations have the right to consume more energy. In short - we are being more efficient if we use x energy to produce Y groos national product - but Kenya is less efficient because they use more energy per GNP - even though on a per person basis - they use far less energy than we do.

Proponents of peak oil (as you describe it) are suggesting that the market will fail to properly predict the future price of oil until it is so late, that society will be forced to adapt to a large change in oil prices over an inadequate period of time. It's not that they are clueless - but that they activelt believe the market is clueless. There is a natural conflict and inherent distrust between economists and peak oil theorists. Benjamin Gatti 18:58, 20 November 2005 (UTC)

Sometimes distrust is healthy. Consider the investment banker, Matthew Simmons, who has brokered oil exploration and development deals worth $billions. His distrust of assurances that Saudi Arabia can increase production as needed led him to personally study reports from petroleum engineers in order to write his own book, _Twilight in the Desert_, that was published a few months ago.

I'd like to bring our attention back to this Wikipedia article. We've debated and re-debated some of these points until it feels like we are masterdebating. In my opinion, the article is good enough to be designated a Wikipedea Featured Article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Featured_articles. Many people have contributed in many ways to make it so. However, one requirement for a Featured Article is that it has stabilized. Can we put this article to rest? Instead of mass, wholesale revisions from this point on, can we be more precise and polished? Jkintree 17:43, 21 November 2005 (UTC)

Well hello again ben. You seem a little hard on governments arguing that they have an aim of increasing oil consumption. This seems firstly to imply a good deal more power and influence for governments than they arguably possess, but secondly to ignore the generally accepted driving mechanism of the economy. People want a better life, more of anything which makes the days go by more merrily. That is what pushes up demand for everything, and at root oil usage. Putting it the other way about seems rather a conspiracy theory. The argument is interesting, but the ideological punchline seems a bit doubtfull Sandpiper 20:55, 25 November 2005 (UTC)

Hi Sandpiper. I think you have tough skin - good for you. The "Oil Race" theory I believe you refer to is an analysis of oil using game theory. Under GT, you devise a stategy to improve your personal odds - relative to your competitors - which are often at odds with a strategy for maximizing the result for everyone. Let's say we ran the world under a benevolent dictator - which might be persuaded that the best thing to do is to conserve - perhaps by raising the price of oil to avoid wasteful expenditures. In a competitive environment however, the strongest economy can use its advantage to attract a disporportionate amount of oil - thereby crippling the competitors ability to catch up. When the oil is gone, everyone experiences an increase in the cost of energy - across the board - and is therefore a competition neutral event. I'm not suggesting that the race is strategic or planned, but rather instinctive, and driven by the self-interested nature of democracy. Note that many politicians believe we should raise fuel taxes to discourage commuting and pollution - but in the same breath would move heaven and earth to "keep gas prices down" in the face of market pressure. That is the dicotemy which exposes nature of the "oil race". Every politician is going to secure as much of the oil at the lowest price for their constituency - regardless of the long term consequences. Democracies don't contemplate long term realities. Benjamin Gatti 06:26, 26 November 2005 (UTC)

yes, but you said it: people personally want to 'keep gas prices down'. That is the driving force, not that everyone has some brilliant idea to bankrupt neighbouring countries. Politicians might have some idea like that, but frankly it is liable to conflict with the publics own self-interest aims. Running a car which only uses half as much petrol per mile is inherently a personal saving irrespective of the absolute price. Now, quite what Mr Bush was trying to achieve with his recent foray into the world oil business defeats me. Sandpiper 11:57, 27 November 2005 (UTC)

I suggest that I could demonstrate the "oil race" is real if I could show that democracies are capable of conserving (and fighting the tragedy of the commons against popular selfishness) when it comes to resources which do not have competative advantage. I'm thinking perhaps the way we run the Federal Reserve - ie somewhat disconnected from the voting booth - and with great emphasis on real economic theory (Note that Michael Brownie was not installed at the reserve) and on the long term viability of the economy. If we ran energy policy like the Reserve - with an emphasis on long term viability in both pollution and energy reliability, would a chairman be able to counter public selfishness in favor of a smooth transition to a more sustainable energy economy? I think so. The "oil race" doesn't involve "bankrupting" other countries at great expense. the "oil war" turns on the recognition that if we were to "raise interest rates" - ie. to encourage conservation of oil by increasing the effective price, then our economy would slow down relative to other countries - unless the inccrease is universal. Depletion will have a universal effect on energy prices. Self-restraint is univeral in its benefit (less pollution, longer access to oil) - but singular in its cost (slow down economy, increase cost of production). This is the classic dillema of the "tragedy of the commons", and is the driving force of the "oil race". This concen was addressed (imperfectly perhaps) in the Kyoto treaty, and the fact that the US was unwilling to participate strongly suggests a preferance for winning the oil race over the alternative "unilateral" conservation. Winning the oil race means that one's economy arrives at the point of depletion better prepared to deal with an economic slowdown than its competitors - generally by burning oil faster to growing the economy, the technology, the educated base, and every other aspects of an economy as quickly as possible - ignoring the implicit tradeoff of burning luxury oil now (A Hummer is luxury consumption of oil) vs. having necessity oil later. I would say we are in an oil race, and that we should adopt an attitude towards energy similar to the Fed, that is instead of lampooning Congressmen who have from time to time changed their enthusiasm for energy taxes as "flip-floppers" - we should view controlling the cost of energy as part of a strategy - like Greenspan, who was never been called a flip-flopper for voting to raise interest rates before voting to lower them. In other words, we should see energy policy as less of a conflict of agendas (less pollution v. more jobs) and more a matter of optimizing the energy economy by careful moves up and down with strategic reserve (and taxes). And since there will never be a "popular" time to store oil by raising gas prices, we should have an independant chair of energy - preferable one which can survive partisan shifts - like Greenspan. Benjamin Gatti 15:30, 27 November 2005 (UTC)

I fancy I do not accept your premise, lodged in the middle of that somewhere. You argue that increasing the cost of oil would inevitably cause a slowing of the economy, so no country would deliberately inflict this upon itself. This ignores the fact that taxes on oil already exist, as do taxes on other things. It is perfectly possible to maintain the same level of taxation overall, but switch the burden from one area to another. So reduce corporation tax, but increase oil tax. Companies have the same amount to invest, but a bigger incentive to save oil. Sandpiper 17:51, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

This is where our different countries bring different perspectives. Here in the US, when Katrina caused an uptick in the price of oil, even the left-wing of the left party (Ted Kennedy) went running to the microphone to explain how they would lower the price of oil, NG and blamed the President for failing to do more to lower the price of oil. The fact is I believe, that our democracy will not tolerate unnecessary increases in energy prices. Now to England, not only is the price of oil high due to taxes, but the cost of using the oil is high by way of city entry fees. It's hard to reconcile these two realities. In England, you have a democracy which accepts high energy taxes, while even the left in the US opposes these higher prices. England places a high value on cooperating with the European Union, the EU does not have oil to speak of, and its socialistic societies benefit from increased utilization of mass transit, much of which is electric. Its industries include alternatives to oil - so there are jobs in Europe which benefit from high energy prices. The fact is that we are two countries addicted to different things. The US is addicted to cheap energy, because it has planned its cities for cheap energy, Europe on the other hand is more energy efficient, and addicted for the same reasons to minimizing traffic, increasing pedestrian/ metro use. Raising the cost of oil in the US would cause a need to re-plan cities, and would be problematic during the transition. It would cause a great deal of capital to be diverted from globally competitive industries to internal redevelopment. I believe the United States would lose forward momentum relative to other countries were it to impose a self-restraint policy on energy. As a democracy, we are unwilling, and I suspect it is an unpopular prospect as a military power as well. Burning up the oil until no other country can take advantage of a self-imposed handicap appears to be the default plan. Benjamin Gatti 16:25, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Implications section is flawed

The section on implications really should be done by an economist, or at least someone with some training in economics. Certainly, if oil production peaks, the price of the commodity will increase provided that peoples' demand remains constant [or increases]. But prices communicate information very well, and peoples' behavior will certainly adjust to the new market conditions to avoid a loss of wealth.

For instance, we waste a lot of energy: when energy becomes more expensive, we can avoid a loss in wealth by changing our behavior. Currently, prices don't compell us to conserve. They will if or when gas hits $5 a gallon and heating bills double (or triple). Such a state of affairs would hurt us only in the short run. In the long run, investment will adjust as people/firms seek to capitalize on what the marketplace is unable to provide in quantities that people prefer.

If we can't have a more valid implications section, let's excise it from the article.

Well said. Benjamin Gatti 05:20, 27 November 2005 (UTC)

Not sure I completely agree. You seem to be assuming rational behaviour on the part of consumers, whereas we often buy goods and services on the basis of irrational choices (cigarette, anyone?). The result of this is inelastic demand for goods and services to which people have some sort of emotional attachment or addiction - that is, if gas prices go up by 1000%, consumption may only drop 10%. The big increase in gas prices in the UK in the 1990s caused protests - but gas consumption and miles driven by car drivers continued to increase. Indeed, the trend in the UK is now towards large and inefficient 4 wheel drive vehicles. Exile 14:18, 2 December 2005 (UTC)

Funny, When I was in Egypt, Kiev, Slovenia, Slovakia, Budapest, Warsaw, I noticed a lot of walking going on (including me). When I tried to walk across the street in a Southern US State, I found it was unreasonably dangerous (something about a bridge, no sidewalk, and rather hurried drivers with large vehicles and trailers). So yes - the trend will take time, possibly even require the rebuilding of pedestrian-oriented communities and services, but it will happen, anecdotal superstitions notwithstanding. Benjamin Gatti 03:20, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Exile said: "Not sure I completely agree. You seem to be assuming rational behaviour on the part of consumers, whereas we often buy goods and services on the basis of irrational choices (cigarette, anyone?)..."

I don't mean to be captious, but this statement betrays a misunderstanding about rational choice. Economists view choices from a value-neutral vantage point. That is, they take peoples underlying valutaions/preferences as given and then postulate that their choices befit 'rational behavior'. [as an aside, it seems like Exile is confusing rational choices with wise choices]. An economist would accept the cigarette smoker's preference/valuation for a cigarette to be whatever it is, then whatever choice the smoker makes would be seen as rational, given the value they confer upon the cig. I realize this may sound silly, but it is the upshot of making economics a value-free (ie, facts only) science, like physics or chemistry. Gary Becker (Nobel Prize in 92) has shown that drug addicts make choices rationally (physical addiction causes them to confer enormous value on that next 'hit' - so their choice appears to be irrational, but actually is not when their preferences are revealed) and Steve Levitt has shown that criminal behavior conforms to rational choice. There are some critiques of the rational choice model, but they are yet outliers to the field and may yet be integrated. Richard Thaler is a behavioral economist whose work focuses on anomalies to rational choice theory.

The upshot of all this is that there are reams and reams of epirical data (both experimental, where conditions are controlled, and real-world observational data) that show that peoples' choices are influenced by the incentives they face, and that their choices conform to rational choice theory. In controlled conditions (where variables are streamlined) the model predicts peoples' choices very well. Now, it could be that there is something special about energy consumption choices, but I would need to see an argument.

In the short run, if gas prices went up 1000%, Exile is obviously right, the inelasticity of demand for gas would mean that the quantity demanded would not shrink at a proportional rate. However, if gas were $25/gallon [$2.50x10=$25], I know I would drive a lot less... In the short run, I would buy a bus pass, in the medium run I would buy a tiny, uber-fuel efficient car, and in the long run I would sell the car and buy an apt/home that is within walking distance to work, schools, entertainment, et al... Nevertheless, there may be lots of people who still own Hummers and drive them; there may yet be trends toward conspicuous consumption. But in the main, the quantity demanded will fall and in the long run we'll see everyone and his brother coming to market with substitutes for expensive energy options.

Of course, the government could artificially raise the price of gas or create some variety of incentives regime that would expedite investment into substitutes. I think it would be great public policy, provided they choose options that minimize dead weight loss.

Is an economist likely to perform an energy return on energy invested analysis? I agree prices will (hopefully) compell people to conserve but there is the added concern that after the peak society will have to become increasingly efficient year after year with less and less resouces to accomplish that task, right? zen master T 03:31, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Fair enough - your concern is the rate of depletion relative to the rate at which an unguided economy can react. Two points:

1. There is a futures market and speculation, and while some want to get rid of oil speculation, It is in fact the canary in the coalmine. Speculators are paid to keep a close eye on potential threats to the steady supply of a commodity and inform the market to conserve while providing the means to effect a smooth transition by raising the alarm (er price) based on a collective observation. Market intelligence is far superior to any single person (think Stalin and corn).
2. We already know how to live more efficiently, 9/10th of the world does this every day, and I believe the US will do it better than anyone else, when the time comes. When we are ready to use trains, then trains will have enough riders to justify their existence. We have the tracks, we only need to melt down our inefficient cars and build efficient trains. Benjamin Gatti 03:59, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

I thought speculators were paid to make money by exploiting changes in a market, including creating artificial changes where this will be finacially beneficial to themselves. I suspect that transport will be a minor issue. How much energy is spent on on transporting people, and how much on building new cars, new washing machines, new whatever? People can walk, but how do they feel about having the same washing machine for their entire life? Sandpiper 11:34, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

I suppose some of them commit crimes to win (not unlike any other bbusiness) - but yes, fundamentally Speculators exists to give markets an early warning system, and to require markets to consider future availability of their resources. Any business which thinks it is getting taken by speculators is welcome to join the speculative markets. But you can't very well fund retirement and pension plans without a futures market. Cheers, Benjamin Gatti 22:45, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

---

Explain exactly how habits derived from urban sprawl can be changed? Is everyone who bought a house 1 hour down the road from where they live going to abandon it? Are businesses going to pick up and move to suburbia? The invisable hand takes a long time to overcome pre-existing and entrenched infrastructure.

Carbonate 14:06, 18 June 2006 (UTC)

Jevon Paradox (not)

Where will we get energy from if the speculators say there is less and less coming down the pipe? Doesn't it require energy to build more efficient transportation to save energy? Can the rate of increased efficiency keep pace with the rate of depletion/energy loss? What of the Jevon's paradox? Isn't agriculture heavily dependent on fossil fuel production? I suppose a key question is at what point (if at all) will we have less energy than is required to provide the bare necessities of life for everyone? If it takes more than one barrel of oil worth of energy to extract, refine, and transport one barrel of oil then oil becomes useless as an energy source, right? And this is true regardless of the price of oil? Can alternative sources make up the difference? zen master T 04:16, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

No - wrong. Oil is more valuable as an energy source than the sum of its energy because you can't put a wind turbine under the hood of a camaro. - But it doesn't matter. We are not going to run out of energy so quickly that we won't have the energy to manufacturer energy efficient trains. We may have to conserve. I could see WWII style ration cards, lines, and high prices - followed quickly by a spike in bicycle thefts, resolving quickly in the insularization of the economy. It will, in sort be cheaper to bake bread in neighborhoods (as they do in Kiev) than for every individual to drive their armoured personnel carrier (what a hummer is) to the county vűnderbox center to buy daily essentials. We will relearn the pathos of the tune: "My baby takes the morning train..." While I appreciate the fact that we really should ration depletable energy - and provide only renewable energy at market cost to optimize the transition, I have great faith that we will be able to navigate the worst-case transition as well. Benjamin Gatti

Jevon's Paradox applies to increased efficiency - not to increased scarcity. You dis-serve Jevon by raising his thesis in this discussion. Jevon was observing that improvements in efficiency of consumable goods would lower the price and encourage consumption. (For which he gets a named paradox?) Scarcity will not lower the price - nor will it encourage consumption. It will, as it always does, trigger innovation to solve a problem. There could be some non-linearity during the transition - meaning that a shift to trains could lower demand for oil, causing a resurgence of interest in cars, which in turn will raise ... etc, but I expect depletion to induce a trend toward increased adoption of high efficiency transport. Benjamin Gatti 05:27, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Well, I think Jevon's paradox is relevant because it's important to realize increased efficiency alone may not solve the problem. Are you saying that in your estimation alternative modes of transportation and alternative energy sources are sufficient to offset oil depletion? How calamitous might this transition be? zen master T 05:49, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

I have lived about a year in low-energy countries (Ukraine, Egypt, Hungary) and I can say that the prospect of a low energy existence in western countries is not frightful. In many ways our over consumption of energy is a cause of our problems - take obesity and depression for starts. Obesity is obvious, but with walking comes community and I believe some relief from the loneliness of an insular existence. Jevon doesn't deal with scarcity - he deals with lowering the price. Remember price is the key informer of the market. In Jevon's example, conservation is associated with negative price signals - which trigger consumption. In theory, depletion will trigger a price hike, followed by conservation, resulting in a moderate increase in price signals. Such will not encourage consumption. This is bonehead supply/demand economics. Conservation and Alt Energy are not likely to support the same levels of over consumption, but let's be honest - wind turbines are being built with less subsidy than nuclear plants, and nukes are part of the cheap energy reality. So we can and do have sources of energy which while they may not be fully competitive, are nonetheless, so closely competitive that the effect of losing one and coming to depend on the other is trivial. It's like losing GM, and having to depend on Hyundai. There's a difference, but far closer to a matter of preference than a calamity. Benjamin Gatti 06:17, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Let's say a new model of light bulb is twice as efficient as the old one, yet if the price of electricity remains the same people will just use twice as many or one for twice as long, that is basically Jevon's paradox, right? People have to live close enough to work to be able to walk there? What about agriculture? So the post peak environment is not as impossibly bad as far as efficiency increase and alternative energy sources research goes as some websites I've read led me to believe? How much over-consumption is there in the USA currently and how much of that can be fixed by lifestyle choice changes? zen master T 06:56, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

When you lower the price of a valuable commodity, people will consume more. Depletion however does not lower the price of a commodity. When the price of a commodity goes up, people will conserve, when you have forced conservation, Jevon's paradox doesn't apply, because people are already consuming at the rate they can afford. Forced conservation will result in a form of efficiency immune to Jevons. Consequentially, this isn't the right place to contemplate JP, it simply doesn't apply. In the meantime, we should appreciate the Jevons effect because it prepares us for scarcity. Planes which get better gas mileage will lessen the impact of oil scarcity, as will LED light bulbs, and everything else, thus we shouldn't view Jevon' paradox as a barrier to conservation, but rather as a tool to transition from an energy-intensive economy to a less intensive future. Benjamin Gatti 16:35, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Isn't it a mistake to think of energy in terms of price? Jevon's paradox is an efficiency paradox. WWII style rationing and bread lines might not be good. zen master T 18:09, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Consumers think in terms of price. And price will drive conservation. How much money will I save if I install a solar water heater on the roof? Given the price of energy - and the price of a heater - I save X. Raise the price and I save far more. Perhaps your (other) point is that raising the price of energy will also raise the price of conservation technologies, and here I think you are mistaken. Energy is a minor component of the cost of most US goods. Bread lines are fine if the market has the freedom to react to strong demand with more investment in meeting the demand. The reason you had unmitigated lines in the USSR is that the market was decoupled from demand. Very dangerous. Rationing can be very good. The alternative it to allow the rich to waste resources while the poor don't have access to essential resources. In the worst case, Barbara Streisand could buy all the water she needed to keep her grass green, but her gardener couldn't afford fresh water for his family to drink. Rationing protects the poor by preventing the rich from creating scarcity by waste. Benjamin Gatti 19:16, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Only consumers living hand to mouth and short on cash really think in terms of price, right? I agree rationing is very good given scarcity and to avoid waste but I wonder about the political and other changes necessary to get to that point? Explain market being decoupled from demand and how is that dangerous? So you think the focus of future efforts will be almost exclusively on conservation and not on ramping up alternative energy sources? zen master T 20:03, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Not at all. Every Business, and every household makes some calculation on satisfing their needs at the lowest cost. Homebuilders will have a tangible advantage in the market if they respond to rising energy costs by the includion of more expensive conservation options. There are BTW plenty of options for reducing the amount of energy consumed - all of which have a price, and all of which are increasingly profitable as the price of energy goes up. More and more used Hummer salesmen will go into solar water heater installation as the price of energy goes up. Price will marshal a coordination and coherent transition to a more efficient existence, which will render todays lifestyle more expensive; however, it will usher in a new lifestyle which is increasingly more attractive and less expensive at the same time.

To explain: When more people drop out of the car market, and enter the mass tansit market, mass transit will have the ridership required to be omnipresent. A 5 minutes wait at the bus line is nearly equivelent to a limosine level of service. That is less expensive and more convienent than a vehicle-intensive life-style, and not at all objectionable (to say nothing of more healthy). Benjamin Gatti 22:31, 3 December 2005 (UTC)

Peer Review

You asked for comments. My first observation is that someone seems to have inserted a paragraph into the introduction saying that oil production peaked in 2004. This is downright confusing, because it has not been integrated properly and the narrative is switching between a view the peak has happened, and one where it has not yet happened. Secondly, the later sections indicate some controversy over whether this has indeed happened. Probably the current presentation is ok, provided it is integrated properly, presenting this line of argument that it may have happened already, but irrespective it must happen sometime.

I had a sense of reading the same information over again as I read down the page. Perhaps either have a smaller introduction, or knock out some of the repetition from later sections.

I think perhaps 'alternatives to conventional oil' should come before 'implications of a world peak'. A section on conclusions always comes after presentation of evidence. At the moment, the 'implications' section is rather pessimistic and feels unbalanced towards the assumption of a disaster. The article does not seem to present proof that there will be such a disaster. If 'alternatives' is introduced first, that might be helpful in balancing out 'implications', since I presume there would be no disaster at all if someone comes up with workable alternatives, and this could then more easily be discussed. This is, I think, the main answer made by people who do not believe there will be such a disaster. Historically, something has always turned up when man has been faced with a resource crisis. Implications should include more discussion of the role of alternatives; if alternatives become widespread before the peak of oil production ever becomes significant, the outcome is merely a smooth switch from one to the other.

The 'alternatives' section is way too small. I know it has a main article, but so does 'implications'. It is not reasonable to dwell on bad consequences but dismiss possible salvation in one paragraph.

I didnt understand some of the critique, exactly how did increasing extractable oil levels from 22% to 35% only increase supply by one year, simple maths suggests that this has increased available oil by 50%, and the discussion suggests that should be many years supply.

Has anyone mentioned pollution and the current world scare story (whether justified, or not) of Global Warming? This seems to be a driving force currently for restricting consumption and therefore both staving off peak of production, and encouraging growth of alternatives. Encouraging them before market economics would do so.

Difficult times lie ahead, Harry and everything is about to change. Sorry, I seem to have become a Harry Potter obsessive. However, that does seem to be what this article is saying, but I am not certain this is correct. Sandpiper 19:49, 28 November 2005 (UTC)

Perhaps your point is that when the reduction in oil use comes - it may as likely be for reasons other than simply running out. Hubbert missed the first conservation movement - and the error has been discounted as a minor deviation in an otherwise perfect theory. Now we have anther reason - global warming - to reduce oil consumption, and so the depletion-only argument get sidelined again. I would suggest that no one is arguing that oil reserves are endless - just that the oil economy is more complicated than EROEI-ists allow. That, and an Encyclopedia shouldn't play lucy goosey. Benjamin Gatti

I think that final reference must be an Americanism, because I don't understand it at all. Global warming is still just one of those social factors. It might cause a big turning point in fuel consumption, but it may yet just be another blip. I remember being at school in the dark because there was no fuel for the power stations. Probably affected my development. Sandpiper 09:56, 29 November 2005 (UTC)

Lucy Goosey is the children's character who gets hit on the head by a falling acorn, and spends the rest of the story getting her friends to believe "the sky is falling". It is a reference to irrational pessimism. Benjamin Gatti

Ah, I remember the story, but couldn't tell you the name of a goose... though come to think about it, wasn't there something about chicken little? Where's my aesop's fables? Sandpiper 18:27, 29 November 2005 (UTC)

Now you're catching on. Mother Goose BTW was a serious commentator during the last "print-a-newspaper-go-to-jail" period (middle English). Yes - I'm suggesting the calamity portions of this article are a fairly tale. Oil Depletion is real, so BTW is Solar burn-out, bird-flu, asteroid impact, global warming, and a host of other diabolic threats to life as we know it. In the end, however, the market will respond to depletion properly and provide a smooth transition to the next energy economy (which in my opinion will be better, not worse than the oil economy). SO the doom and gloom here is farcical, laughable, and should be presented in the third person rather than as the opinion of the wikipedia. Benjamin Gatti 23:15, 29 November 2005 (UTC)

Did the hitch hikers guide to the galaxy ever reach America? There was a character with very adaptable genes, so much so that it might mutate into something entirely different so it could more easily reach across the table, but then would be entirely unable to eat what it had just picked up. (something like that). Evolution works by random changes which cause short-term gains. But in the long term, can lead to extinction of a species because the changes no longer allow it to survive when general conditions change. I fancy that 'market forces' act in rather the same way. The market responds to current trends, not future ones. The evolutionary success of the human species has been because we do ignore the current market conditions and anticipate future changes. Sandpiper 18:13, 30 November 2005 (UTC)

In the end, however, the market will respond to depletion properly and provide a smooth transition to the next energy economy . Would you like to elaborate, which other energy economy is this?. The reason we havn't moved to any other source of energy already is because all of the alternatives are inferior to oil, either in terms of energy density, abundance, ease of use or price, unless you know any better?. It appears that oil is something of a one off in terms of its versatillity. Also your faith in the market ignores the fact that it would require large quantities of oil and fossil fuels to create any alternative energy system, and hence waiting until after the peak to begin any transition would inevitably make the task considerably more difficult, a fact that market forces do not take into consideration. G-Man 21:07, 30 November 2005 (UTC)

Conservation will be the key contributer. Big Box stores will convert to neighborhood shops (again). Employers will be motivated by cost to integrate housing into their campus plans. Cities will build work/live sectors. More food will be prepared professionally in local cafes. Energy costs will increase, but the cost of living will not. It could in fact go down, as cars become unnecessary and irrelevent. Trains become the dominant mode of transportation, and the value of a property goes up rather than down with proximity to a train track. Local business, which have a travel advantage will do better than regional companies with a employee/efficiency advantage - thuse jobs will increase. Walking to work, school, shop and restaraunt will be the healthy and pleasant norm. small shops will benefit from foot traffic. neighbors will see each other more often and develop deeper relationships, mental health costs will go down, as will obesity, diabetes etc ... Benjamin Gatti 18:44, 1 December 2005 (UTC)

Reference Sub-Divisions

Could someone please explain to me on what basis people are classified as "Voices" or as "Informed?" First, I don't even know what voices really means. Informed is pretty vague too. Further, the division between members of both groups seem rather arbitrary to me. For example, why is it that a former U.S. Senator who's now part of the United Nations Foundation (Wirth) thought to be more informed than a current U.S. Representative who is also a scientist (Bartlett)? Or a prof at MIT (sure, it's Chomsky, big whoop) more informed than a prof at Antioch College?

Voices:

• Pat Murphy - Professor, Antioch College, Community Service, Ohio
• Roscoe Bartlett - Scientist, U.S. Representative, Maryland, [14]

Informed

• Noam Chomsky - Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology [16]
• Timothy E. Wirth - United Nations Foundation, Former U.S. Senator [17]

If there is good reason for this division that I'm just not seeing, I suggest this be clarified in the article. If there is not, I'd recommend removing these categories. --BadLeprechaun 09:11, 30 November 2005 (UTC)

The external links to google news in those sections do not work as intended. Also, in the Critique section, a ratio measured in years is probably wrong - ratios are unitless. Rtdrury 10:44, 27 December 2005 (UTC)

I'd rate Kenneth Deffeyes, the petroleum geologist from Shell Oil and then Princeton, as "informed". The others listed are pundits.

Arbitration

Editors here may be interested in Wikipedia:Requests for arbitration/Benjamin Gatti. - Taxman ^Talk 02:38, 21 December 2005 (UTC)

Falsification?

I want to talk in abstracts here. Don't mention the article until we agree on principles. If a scientifc theory predicts X, and then X doesn't happen, does the theory count as an "obsolete scientific theory"? Is it a valid defense to say, "Don't worry, its next prediction is sure to come true."? MrVoluntarist 04:59, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

I think if X doesn't happen, but Y happens and you can explain X-Y with a sub-clause e, then you can use X with sub-clause e to reliable predict large phenomena on a global scale many years into the future. The important thing is to ensure that the next prediction is almost too dire to ignore, and to schedule it to come true somewhere between 20 - 60 years hence. (Shorter and you will live a large percentage of your life serving as the brunt of doomsayer jokes - too long, and people will simply not care - as in the case of carbon sequestering) Benjamin Gatti 20:37, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

Then if X doesn't have that sub-clause e, X is obsolete, while X with sub-clause e might not be, unless it's an all-purpose "out". Agree? MrVoluntarist 01:42, 9 January 2006 (UTC)

Anyone home? MrVoluntarist 04:13, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

Oh, and another thing, what exactly is the "peak theory" saying (yes, I read the article). Is it saying that because oil is finite in supply, that one day people will either shift to something else, stop using it, or it will run out? Well, taking conservation of energy as valid, okay, sure, but that's not a "theory", it's true by definition. If that's the "theory", then it needs to say when it's going to happen, and if it doesn't, buh-bye, it's obsolete. You can't just keep shifting your prediction. That's not how science works. I think it's eminently fair to say this is an "obsolete scientific theory". MrVoluntarist 04:16, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

The theory says that after the most accessible oil has been pumped out of the ground, the rate at which the remaining oil can be pumped out of the ground begins to decline. At this point, the price of oil increases, and consumers are forced to use less and to look for alternatives. The evidence indicates that this is what is happening now. Jkintree 15:06, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

Well, given that non-existent oil is infinitely expensive to extract, the theory is necessarily true and requires no empirical observations. It's not falsifiable, ergo, not a scientific theory. (I think you mis-stated what the theory says.) MrVoluntarist 03:17, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

The statement that "non-existent oil is infinitely expensive to extract" is falsifiable. If oil is non-existent, then it can not be found. Stockholders get upset when companies continue to drill for oil without finding it. After a point, even with higher prices, if oil can't be found, the drilling stops. Extraction costs do not become infinitely expensive, they become zero. Jkintree 15:22, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

I agree, Jkintree, SqueakBox 15:16, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

bestest article evar!

I like this article because it omg confirms all my socialist theories.

Not me, I like it because it shows how its all bushs fault.

I like it because it condemns big business.

Not me, I like it because it expands my (censored). Thanks to this article I have a (censored). Thank you wikipedia.

What? That's crazy talk. This article is about <booming voice> EMPIRICAL SCIENCE?

I like this article because it is disrespectful to dirt, can't you see I'm serious?

This article clearly deserves to be wikipedia article of the millenium.

SUPPORT. --Capsela 07:29, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

Well I like the article and I hate socialism and big government. Big business is great when it doesn't have a monopoly. If this stuff pans out socialist attitudes are going to be a big problem and could represent the destruction of modern civilisation as the politically correct refuse to change their support the lazy and incompetent beliefs and force us all down the path of destruction, SqueakBox 15:56, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

I support Capsela on this, This article ought to have a permanent place on the front page until the world gets it through their thick skulls that oil is drying up. Benjamin Gatti 20:30, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

Wikipedia is not a soapbox. MrVoluntarist 03:16, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

Well that is as may be, I am not arguing the importance of the theory but how on earth does the theory justify socialist politics? To me it justifies capitalist politics and is an utter negation of socialism, SqueakBox 15:14, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

SqueakBox what do you base your first statement on? "socialist attitudes are going to be a big problem and could represent the destruction of modern civilisation as the politically correct refuse to change their support the lazy and incompetent beliefs and force us all down the path of destruction." If anything capitalism lead us to this problem in the first place in my honest opinion. -NoAccount 20th February 2006 09:18 (GMT +01:00).

Hubbert? peak

Benjamin suggested possibly changing the title to Peak oil theory on the implications Afd. Do we want a debate on this. My initial reaction was its a good idea. Does anyone else have some feedback as I will only move it if there is consensus, SqueakBox 15:22, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert presented production curves for coal and natural gas as well as for oil in his 1956 paper, so his theory really applies to all fossil fuels. The way I found this article was by doing a Wikipedia search on "peak oil," so that connection is already established. I would not block consensus if a number of people were strongly in favor of renaming this article to "Peak oil theory." At this stage, I'd probably prefer to leave well enough alone, and not change it. Jkintree 16:29, 14 January 2006 (UTC)

The benefit of changing this article to the less personal title is that it will justify the inclusion of contemporary views on the subject. As it is, I would object to more than a see also reference to modern peakniks. Benjamin Gatti 17:29, 15 January 2006 (UTC)

We have debated this before and their was no consensus to move the article. I continue to feel this is the best place for the article. Johntex\^talk 18:15, 15 January 2006 (UTC)

It seems to me that "Hubbert peak theory" is only a subset of "peak oil". Shouldn't peak oil have a separate article, one that isn't confined in the predictions Hubbert made decades ago? A lot of the criticisms on this talk page seems to be about Hubbert's predictions in particular being wrong, rather than the idea of peak oil occurring at some point being incorrect. TastyCakes 02:57, 10 April 2006 (UTC)

"Has it occurred" needs work

There are a number of serious flaws in the "Has it occured" section that I believe require a complete rewrite or preferably deletion. As it stands the quality of the information hardly justifies its prominent placement.

First of all as others have pointed out there is an important distinction between light and heavy oil (even ignoring unconventional oil). Saudis are awash in heavy oil and there is no market evidence that their production is peaking. (Reliable predictive data is of course unavailable.) They were not able to meet world demand for light oil, but that happened in mid to late 2004, not 2005, and is completely unrelated to Katrina. To my knowledge the Saudis have never officially acknowledged the shortfall in light oil though it is widely known in the market. Finally, the fact that shortages have occurred does not necessarily imply that production has peaked for several reasons:

1) Temporary or political supply disruptions do not necessarily indicate a geophysical production peak (e.g. Katrina, Iraq).

2) Shortage involves both supply and demand, if demand is increasing (as it demonstrably is) supply can still be increasing (i.e. pre-peak) yet still precipitate an economic crisis.

3) Oil infrastructure takes time to develop, shortages can come about because of misforcasting or underinvestment as is demonstrably the case in the oil industry today (low prices in ~2000 discouraged investment).

Also the parenthetical comment about Saudi reserve estimates is worthless since reserves have nothing to do with current production. Of course the Saudis also have an incentive to hide their production capacity but since the article asserts that Saudis failed to deliver, that is completely irrelevant.

The natural gas info is also flawed in that it fails to mention enormous reserves discovered in Russia, LNG transport, stranded gas and other important factors.

I could go on, but IMHO the entire section has negative information content and should be axed. It could be rewritten to be factually correct but that would negate its conclusion and would no longer justify its prominent placement.

Some supporting info at this Wikipedia post by myself: http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=174311&cid=14514647 Sparohok 00:57, 20 January 2006 (UTC)

All three of your points above are correct. Whether global production greater than the current 84 million barrels per day can be achieved, or not, remains to be seen. Given the declining rates of discovery of new oil fields, and the lag time of developing new oil fields, the critical piece for global peak might be the rate of decline in production from existing fields. People are watching this very carefully. No doubt, the current "Has it occurred" section is flawed. Imperfect as it is, that section might still be worth maintaining. jkintree (Sorry, I'm not signed in.) 208.190.209.67 17:12, 20 January 2006 (UTC)

No one has ever suggested that the current consumption of oil exceeds the replacement rate - meaning that depletion, as with the sun itself, is a foregone conclusion. Hubbert's peak proposition goes beyond the inevitable and proposes a specific and falsifiable time line for depletion; in addition, Hubbert's attempts to write the obituary for cheap oil by stating that it ended because it reached zero energy return on energy invested (ZEROI)- again a falsifiable assertion. It appears to me that he was wrong on both counts: 1. The end was not when he said, and 2. the driving force to switch to alternatives appears to be more driven by a desire to end economic dependency on fanatical regimes, and (sadly secondarily) an interest to stem the production of greenhouse gases - again, a far cry from death by ZEROI. Benjamin Gatti 15:23, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

1. The "when" that is of concern to this article has to do with the "peak" not the "end" of oil production. 2. A desire to end dependence on fanatical regimes is rational. The irony of the United States military occupation of Iraq is that oil exports from Iraq are lower today than they were before the United States invaded. That is an example, as Hubbert said, of how political factors can influence the date of peak production. Jkintree 18:13, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

Jtree, granting even that Hubbert proposed that the date could be shifted by political events - Hubbert's core theory remains - that a. the peak of oil will be caused by depletion (per ZEROI), and b. this point will mark the 50% point of global supply, and c. the downward slope will largely reflect the upward slope. I would counter-propose that stronger evidence exists to predict that the peak of oil will be caused by voluntary reductions in consumption - driven by concerns over global warming and national independence, and for this reason will not signal any such half-way point, and again for this reason, will not mark the beginning of a downward slope to match the rate of rise. Benjamin Gatti 02:35, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

BG, are you saying ZEROI is misleading/incomplete or are you saying ZEROI is not currently in the top two impetuses for switching to alternative energy (and it should be)? zen master T 21:03, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

Zen, My understanding of Hubbert's theory is that He had a specific epiphany in the general field of petroleum reserves. His epiphany - and what marks his contribution as uniquely his - is the proposition that at some point it would take more energy to extract oil than the energy content of the oil extracted - or Zero net energy returned on energy invested (ZEROI). My rather low opinion of Hubbert's theory is based on the counter proposition that he was and is more wrong than right. Yes oil production peaked in the US close to the time he predicted - but not because it had experienced ZEROI - rather the US peak was driven by a force outside Hubbert's epiphany - it peaked because middle eastern oil was discovered which was lighter, sweeter, and or closer to the surface than US oil, and so much so that it was cheaper to import oil than to pump it locally. On the second point - which is the Global reserve, Hubbert is I suggest again more wrong than right as the drivers of fuel efficiency, alternative energy, and national oil production is not the threat of ZEROI, nor the reality of ZEROI, but rather the joint effect of concern about global warming on the left, and the more right-wing concern that paying radical states serves to entangle the US into intractable foreign conflicts. So I am saying the second - that Hubbert's epiphany (the point of ZEROI and the irrelevance of economic factors to rationalize the oil market due to the intractable nature of ZEROI) is not the prime mover for change; and that consequentially, a peak in production, even if and when it does occur, will not necessarily signal the beginning of a mirror-image downward slope of production, and will quite probably signal an increase in sustainable alternatives, and for that reason, there will be no inevitable downward slope, but merely a relative increase in the price signal for oil which reflect the environmental and security premiums which are currently being hidden by subsidization - after which many alternative energies will compete with oil for lowest cost of energy. Which is to suggest that oil will peak; but not for the reasons, nor in the manner Hubbert predicts, that the peak will be a good thing for the environment, for global stability, and for the economy, and that at present, the irrational reliance on Hubbert's predictions, based solely on a single prediction is, for me at least, more than a little disturbing - therefore I wish the article could deal with the subject with more critical science, and less subjective adherence to an ideology (even though I support many tenants of that ideology). Benjamin Gatti 02:26, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert never equated the point of ZEROI with the point of peak production. Jkintree 03:22, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

Certainly not in the same moment, but (IIRC) Hubbert viewed the fall of oil as being driven, not by market forces, but by a constitutional pattern of oil reserve behaviour under which the first half is light sweet crude, and the second half is more difficult and approaches the point of ZEROI. I get the sense that Hubbert is being associated here with any phenomenon or circumstance under which the production of oil ceases to rise at the same break neck pace. In short, there is a risk of Hubbert Peak becoming a euphemism for any stress on the oil supply - this is a farce. The oil supply may become stressed by any number of things which have nothing to do with Hubbert's epiphany. I have thrice named two. Benjamin Gatti 04:19, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

I think proponents of the theory of global warming are more hopeful that the peak in the world's production of oil will force people to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions than proponents of the theory of peak oil are hopeful that global warming will force people to reduce their consumption of oil. United States presidents have been talking about reducing our dependence on imported oil for decades, but a higher percent of oil used in the United States is imported now than at any previous time. We might agree that a number of factors are operating today to make us want to reduce our consumption of oil: rising prices, global warming, and political instability in the Middle East. None of those factors takes away from the inexorable depletion of the world's aging oil fields. The 84 million barrels per day of oil that we are getting out of the ground now may be the most we will ever get. The debate will end a year or two after the peak has occurred. Jkintree 16:17, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

It depends. It depends on the reason for the peaking. If oil peaks for the reasons proposed by Hubbert, then the downward slope would follow; however, if oil peaks for a combination of reasons which include voluntary or political influences, then the future availability of oil would not be well represented by Hubbert's theories. Since there are a great deal of influences on oil other than those contemplated by Hubbert, the shape of the peak is not an empirical certitude. You stated some strong points, but there are equally strong arguments that a rational market will send the appropriate price signals to trigger new exploration and conservation, and I for one, am confident that we can restructure our cities and habits for much more fuel efficient lifestyles when the time comes - this is hardly to advocate for waiting, but the reality remains that the result of a rapid decline in oil availability is not necessarily a calamity - thus I find the article to be a bit hyperbolic. Benjamin Gatti 00:22, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

Footnotes

This is a problem. Please either use inline citations, footnote citations, but not both! See Wikipedia:Footnote. And certainly not footnote citations without a link! Ref tags even work better. Elle _{vécut heureuse} ^{à jamais} (Be eudaimonic!) 22:18, 10 February 2006 (UTC)

Some of the references are just to Google searches for the name of a prominent person. Is that bad form? --Nagle 01:04, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

Today, someone deleted a link to Tribly Lundberg as bogus. There is a Trilby Lundberg, who runs the [Lundberg Survey], which tracks gasoline prices at retail around the US. That's a reasonable source of information, but was incorrectly cited. It's a high-priced commercial service; there's little free info from that source. --Nagle 01:04, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

Oilempire.us

Is oilempire.us, run by Mark Rabinowitz, considered to be a reliable source? I noticed that it is not used as a reference or even an external link. It has been used as a reference for Gatekeeper (politics), but to appears to be a single-person website with fringe concepts. -Will Beback 21:46, 11 February 2006 (UTC)

I have met Mark Robinowitz (not "Rabinowitz", btw) several times and consider him to be logical in his reasoning. He has strong opinions about geopolitics and I know some in the 9/11 Truth Movement who consider him argumentative before inclusive, but I do find that he backs up his opinions with logic (and lots of sourcing), has a large body of knowledge, and is rather prolific in his writing. Though oilempire.us is a one man shop (as far as I know) Mark's work has also appeared on the website From The Wilderness. Kaimiddleton 02:11, 12 February 2006 (UTC)

Not Credible. The Writing style is conclusory and unqualified. Amounts to a blog and original research. Feel free to make use of the research if it is worth quoting independently; however, both "oilempire.us sez this", or "this is true (see oilempire)" would be original research. (Plus the guy uses bright colors to make his point. Think about it - if you need colors to distract the reader, you aren't selling logic, you're competing with Las Vegas) Benjamin Gatti 05:17, 12 February 2006 (UTC)

Views of USGS 2000 are incorrect

Hi everyone. The section on the USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000) was rife with errors, and I have mangled it to more closely reflect the facts. You must be more careful about distinguishing between "reserves" and "resources".

The most important point is that the USGS 2000 Assessment does not estimate future discoveries, production or reserve levels. Here it is from the horse's mouth:

"Note that the geology-based Seventh Approximation does not attempt to predict volumes of conventional resources that will actually be discovered in a given assessment time frame. To do so would require full knowledge of future petroleum economics, exploration technology, and exploration effort at the assessment-unit level. Rather, the Seventh Approximation estimates volumes of conventional resources having the potential to be discovered in the stated time frame." (From the "Assessment Methodology" section of the 2000 report.)

In other words, the report is strictly concerned with discoverable oil resources in the ground, not the rate at which that oil will actually be discovered or added to reserves in the future.

This sentence is plain false:"A year 2000 USGS study of world-wide oil reserves predicted a possible peak in oil production around the year 2037." The 2000 study concerned undiscovered resources and reserve growth, as well as current reserves, and has nothing whatsoever to say about future production or peak oil, as you can verify yourself by reading it.

The final paragraph is particularly bad. It begins with a charge against the USGS, presents evidence showing the DOE-EIA is guilty, and then convicts the USGS. I deleted the parts treating the USGS for that reason.

The first line of the USGS section states: "The United States Geological Survey estimates [2] that there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for 50 to 100 years." This is very misleading. In the 2000 Assessment, the USGS gives total reserves of oil+NGL worldwide as 959 Gb. That's about 31 years, not 50 or 100. The article uses the word "reserves" incorrectly.

-- by JayDee562

Good points, please adjust the article. I've always though that section was wrong and that nothing in the source it supposedly referred to supported the claims there. That's all that's needed to update it, so again, please do. - Taxman ^Talk 23:44, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

Obsolete?

Unless you can prove that the amount of oil in the Earth is infinite and it can be drilled at the current rate forever then this is not an obsolete theory. --8bitJake 19:04, 20 February 2006 (UTC)

No, that's not my burden at all. (And earth isn't the only source of energy or oil, FYI.) This is how science works: you gather evidence. You come up with a theory. You use your theory to make predictions. If those predictions don't come true, the theory is falsified and thus obsolete. That's not POV. That's how everyone understand science on Wikipedia. This page refers to the Hubbert Theory. He used his theory to predict when oil would catastrophically peak. That was supposed to be ~6 years ago. It didn't happen. Again, everyone agrees that that prediction failed. Ergo, Hubbert's theory is obsolete at this point. Now, if you want to sever the page into "Hubbert theory" and a general one about peak oil, that's fine. Then the Hubbert theory would be obsolete and "peak oil" would not necessarily be. But at it stands, the theory has been falsified. It's obsolete now. That's how science works. MrVoluntarist 19:52, 20 February 2006 (UTC)

Come on people, I'll need a full explanation soon, or I'll continue to add the "Obsolete scientific theory" cat to this article. It is obsolete now. MrVoluntarist 14:40, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

Your demand for a "full explanation" is unreasonable. "Obsolete" might be one way to describe a theory. Another way is to talk about how "well supported" it is by the evidence. The year 2000 passed, and we can see that the global production of oil did not peak in that year. That is evidence that weakens the support for Hubbert's theory. On the other hand, in 2006, we can see that oil producing countries are having difficulty meeting the still rising global demand for oil. Disruptions in supply, such as from hurricane Katrina or from violence in Nigeria, sometimes have dramatic effects on the price of oil. The price of oil has an effect on demand, and our motivation to find alternatives to oil. We won't know whether we have crossed the peak in the world's production of oil until a year or two after it has happened. The year 2006 is still pretty close to the year 2000. Let's keep watching, and see what happens before declaring Hubbert's theory to be obsolete. Jkintree 16:14, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

That's not how science works. Hubbert's theory said oil production would hit a catastrophic peak in 2000. Period. 2000 happened. No peak. No catastrophic peak. Hubbert's theory has been falsified. Now, you can come up with another theory to try to paper over the flaws of this one, but that would be a different theory. As long as this article is about the "Hubbert peak theory", it belongs in the "obsolete scientific theory" category. Hubberts theory was not "It'll catastrophically peak in, like 2000 or so. Give or take. If it doesn't happen, you know, just wait some more. It'll happen when it happens, just give it some time." That's wouldn't be a prediction. If an astronomer comes up with a theory, and one implication of that theory is "an asteroid will hit the earth in Year Y", and year Y passes without a collision, the theory has become obsolete. It has lost whatever predictive power it had. He can't say "No, I promise, my theory still works, just give it more time!" Hubberts theory was falsified in precisely the same way. Or is your claim that Hubbert's theory makes no predictions at all? MrVoluntarist 17:03, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

My understanding is that the Hubbert peak theory is bassed on the hypothesis that oil production will reach a peak when one half of the total conventional oil reserves have been extracted. If Hubberts 1956 use of data predicted a peak in 2000 and this was proven to be false it does not mean the theory has been disproved, only that his data was not accurate, and therefore this article is not obsolete. User:MrVoluntarist's reasoning is flawed and the obsolete category should be removed. - Shiftchange 02:31, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

You don’t know that we have not already hit peak oil. Given the secretive nature of oil reserves we have no idea what the Governments of Iraq, Saudi and Iran actually know. This is a theory and so far it can not be proven but it can’t be disproven so it is still a valid theory. When the shit hits the fan and gas hits 10 bucks a gallon I think Hubbert’s critics will change their minds. --8bitJake 20:41, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

The theory is about production, not reserves. Production didn't peak in 2000. Therefore, Hubbert's theory is in error. We can write conspiracy stories all day about who's hiding what. That's not science. The theory failed. The theory is obsolete. Some ad-hoc peak oil theories haven't failed (yet), I'm sure. But as long as this article is about Hubbert's theory, it includes an obsolete theory and thus warrants the category. MrVoluntarist 20:55, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

I think you'll find that the 2000 prediction was made in c 1971, without taking into account the effects of the 1970s oil crises which reduced demand for oil, and therefore extended the peak by a few years. G-Man * 20:44, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

Sure. And when we make the next prediction, it won't account for the next unpredictable future political events, and the next wave of technology. That's called "moving the goalposts". It's not science. You can indefinitely say "OH! I didn't account for that event! This experiment doesn't count, I get a do-over." Scientific theories make hard predictions, and when they don't hold up, they're obsolete. This one didn't hold up. It's obsolete. No excuses. MrVoluntarist 20:55, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

That is only if you take it litterally as meaning the predictions made by Hubbert himself 35 years ago. Since then other people using Hubbert's Methods, have altered his predictions to take account of subsequent events. This does not invalidate his basic theory, which has yet to be proven or disproven. G-Man * 21:57, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

"Hubbert peak theory" refers to the theory developed by Hubbert. The article also talks about additional Peak Oil theories. However, as long as the title of the article references a theory developed by Hubbert that has since been falsified, the article is about an obsolete scientific theory, hence the categorization. If you want to sever the "Hubbert Theory" article from a more general "peak oil" theory, then the peak oil article would not necessarily be an obsolete theory. But as long as the article is a dual-purpose Hubbert/Peak Oil article, people looking for obsolete theories need to be able to find it. MrVoluntarist 22:31, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

You don’t get it. The cultural importance and relevance of the theory is that there is going to be an oil peak in the 21th century.

You're absolutely sure there's going to be a catastrophic peak in the 21st century. Well, thanks for revealing your bias and your fanatic devotion, but let's recall that Wikipedia is not a soapbox. Wikipedia is not here to help promote causes or beliefs your support, but to present all information in a neutral manner. "OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE UNLESS WE CUT DOWN ON OIL" does not meet that, I'm afraid. MrVoluntarist 22:59, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

Obsolete is a loaded word that does not apply here and will be edited out.--8bitJake 22:42, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

When someone forms a theory, and that theory does not hold up to the facts of the real world, the theory has become obsolete. That's how the term is used. If you want to bring in a mediator, please do so. I will insist that proper words be used to describe scientific theories. MrVoluntarist 22:59, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

Have you read Hubbert's 1956 paper? It's linked from footnote [1] in the first paragraph of the article. On page 22 of that paper, Hubber wrote, "In Figure 20, the curve has been drawn on the assumption that the maximum rate of production will be about two and one-half times the present rate, which places the date of the peak at about the year 2000. As in the case of coal, variations of this assumed maximum rate will advance or retard the date of the culmination." Figure 20 in Hubbert's paper is the first graph that appears in this Wikipedia article.

Then, on page 27 of his 1956 paper, Hubbert wrote, "On the basis of the present estimates of the ultimate reserves of petroleum and natural gas, it appears that the culmination of world production of these products should occur within about a half century,..." Hubbert used the word "culmination" in the same sense of "peak."

Hubbert presented more than one scenario of the rise and fall of United States oil production. His theory is not tied to one specific year. Hubbert acknowledged that various factors could affect the curves in his graphs. In order for you to declare that Hubbert's theory is obsolete, you have to tie it to a specific year, which Hubbert never did. Correct yourself. Jkintree 16:19, 22 February 2006 (UTC)

Ah, okay. So your position now is that it doesn't make any prediction whatsoever. Whatever actually turns out to happen -- yeah, that's what it predicted. That's fine if that's what you want to say instead. I'm sorry for suggesting it's obsolete. I guess instead it belongs in the "pseudoscience" category. I'll let you add it. MrVoluntarist 16:50, 22 February 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert's own words, as quoted yesterday, were that the peak in the world's production of oil "should occur within about a half century." Let's see, 1956 + 50 = 2006. Did I add that correctly? Jkintree 15:50, 23 February 2006 (UTC)

Sorry for the hiatus. Yes, you did add that incorrectly. Hubbert's scientific, rigorous, falsifiable prediction was for 2000, not 2006. His theory has been falsified. Please tell me you don't work in a scientific field. MrVoluntarist 01:49, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

MrVoluntarist, you have a very specific way of defining "science" which I guess is connected with logic positivism and especially critical rationalism & Karl Popper. The epistomologics of these two methodologies equate theories with the assumptions based on the theory. This is, however, not at all the most ordinary way of making theoretical assumptions. Hubberts' theory is not a theory that tells *when* a peak will occur. It is a theory that tells *that* a peak will occur. In Lakatos' wording, the assumption about 2000 was not the hard core of the theory, but an assumption derived from the hard core. That Hubbert further made some assumptions based on the general theory that has so far proved to be a bit off and might prove to be well off does not affect the validity of the theory, it merely affects the validity of the specific assumptions based upon the general theory. This article is about the general theory, not about loose assumptions Hubbert himself was very cautios about giving any predictable validity. He stated that he had a general theory, and based upon what was known at the time he made a very loose prediction of 50ish years, a predicion that can be updated when more facts are known. If you want to falsify the theory and thus make it seem outdated, you will have to falsify a) that each single oil well approximately follows a bell-shaped curve, or b) that this can be generalised to be the case for regions. What you are doing now would be like if someone claimed that gravity was 9.2 m/s^2 and you used this to say that Newtons theory of gravity was obsolete. The specific assumption would be off, the theory of gravity wouldn't be. No theory ever held in my field could ever hold up against your criteria for claiming a theory to be obsolete. That's the way things are when you study something affected by people and their actions. --Jakob mark 17:49, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

First, let's learn how to properly use analogies. Predicting g's acceleration is not analogous to what Hubbert did. He made a falsifiable prediction about when global oil would peak, k? A more analogous scenario would be someone using a theory about planetary motion and making the *falsifiable* prediction "the sun will rise within X mintes of X:XX am" on this particular day", the sun *failing* to rise at that time, and then said scientists followers saying "hey! That doesn't count, we get a do-over, we *really* meant it would rise, well, about the time it actually did". Everyone would rightly scoff at such "science". There are no "do-overs" in science. If your theory doesn't make correct falsifiable predictions, it's out. Period. No excuses. No cover-ups. No selective use of the evidence. The standard on Wikipedia for discerning science from pseudoscience is whether it makes, specific, hard, falsifiable predictions, not how subtly they can move the goalposts.

Second, let's try to maintain a consistent recitation of what the theory actually says. It does not merely say, "you know, oil's going to run out some time". If you merely told people that they'd switch to some oil substitute of some usefulness at some time in the future, well, that's not quite a lot to get worked up about, is it? The theory doesn't merely re-state conservation of mass. For it to be a theory, there must be some event that would falsify it. But no matter what happens, Peak Oil proponents do not admit falsification! The theory goes further than "you know, oil's gonna run out ... some day". It predicts that catastrophic things will happen when oil runs out, such as people (for some reason) eliminating the most important uses first. Of course, whenever you challenge someone on this, they always -- just like you did -- revert to "what what what? You deny oil will run out some day?" when those are really separate issues. Oddly enough, you won't find a "Peak Gold" or "Peak Diamond" theory page. That should tell you something.

But back to falsification: if the predictions are falsified (like, you know, Peak Oil was), then you have to go back to where the error came from, and correct it. In this case, it was Hubbert's (stupid) mistake that, "OMG! People actually invest more in one area as the returns go up! I totally did not see that coming!" That's what you tend to get when geologists decide to play economist. I agree with you that people are a bit harder to predict than planets or atoms, which is precisely why this "theory" is on extremely flimsy ground, and that needs to be explained. I mean, where else do you get a peer-reviewed paper published that alleges a peak two months before publication date based on a few weeks of data? MrVoluntarist 18:50, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

OK, I'll level with you here: I agree that a lot of unscientific articles are written about peak oil, no doubt about it. But then again, I think that a lot of unscientific articles are written about a lot of things. Back to Lakatos and Kuhn: Lakatos comes to the conclusion, said very briefly, that testing a hypothesis is not the same as testing the theory. The theory has got some core assumptions and from these core assumptions specific hypotheses are derived. That one specific hypothesis was falsified is weakening to the theory, of course, but not crucial. Especially given that the number of caveats Hubbert himself gave about the hypothesis are significant enough to not touch the core of the theory.

I gave you two places where you could falsify the core theory. I could give you more. If you can falsify that the rate of oil extraction follows a logistic curve, you've got the core of the theory falsified and I for one will stop believing in the theory. A better example than the Gravity example (which I must admit was a bit far-fetched) can be found in the field of economics, where every basic theory is loaded with assumptions about rationality and consumers' level of knowledge. If these theories fail to predict a given outcome on the market, it is safe to say that the theory itself will be weakened, but not outdated. Simple supply and demand theories fall short of explaining every market behavior, but one does not give up the theory, rather one adjusts the assumptions one combines with the core of the theory - this can, again according to Lakatos, happen in a productive or a degenerative way. If you claim that wikipedia has the standard that one falsified falsifiable hypothesis derived from a theory outdates the theory, I suggest we delete all the articles about economy and political science, since they obviously don't live up to this criterion. The hypothesis derived from Hubbert's work had a lot of caveats and a lot of unknowns and the hypothesis merely stated that if a lot of other things were true then the peak would occur around 2000. Now, given that these other things were not true, we have not really tested the theory. The core of the theory remains falsifiable, though.

Actually, Peak Oil theory does not claim that oil will run out one day. It really states that the peak is the interesting point rather than the day of the final depletion. And that core can theoretically be falsified. Noone has tried to do that, as a lot of criticists take the starting point in a hypothesis derived from the theory and laded with assumptions that did not hold true and from this claim the whole theory to be invalid. Noone in the field of economics or political science would accept this rigid way of falsifying the core of their theories.

And your real criticism is that people who believe in peak oil tend to claim that there will be dire consequences of a peak. Well, let's discuss whether the article paints a picture of the situation that is too gloomy, then? If that is your main problem, why are we discussing whether Lakatos, Kuhn or Popper have the best definition of how to be scientific? As far as I can see, this article does not claim that dire consequences will happen when the peak occurs. Implications of peak oil would be the right place for that discussion. This discussion about how theories should be constructed is not the discussion you really want to have, and you are obviously well aware that most theories conserning events that can be influenced by human behavior don't follow the Popper definition of theory. So instead of a critique based on Popper, let's discuss your main arguments, being that peak oil theories tend to believe that no substitute for oil can be found and that important uses of oil cannot be maintained in the long run.--Jakob mark 20:38, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

I guess facts don't matter anymore. The prediction could turn out wrong 30 times, and it wouldn't matter. Don't let facts get in the way of a good theory, Jakob. Just don't. MrVoluntarist 15:00, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

• Sigh*. Thanks for just stating that I disbelieve in facts instead of actually arguing. Makes your case that much stronger, imo. Distinction between what are core facts and thus the core of the theory and what are hypothesises derived from the core seem to cause you some confusion, but just state that I disbelieve in facts and my argumentation can be disregarded. --Jakob mark 14:32, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

Jakob: the theory was falsified. This was in black and white. Your comments reveal that you're not interested in taking the matter seriously, and will say whatever it takes to claim that Hubbert was *really* correct, and that's a completely separate matter from whether oil tapering off would hurt. Your comments are the kind of thing I see from True Believers. No observation, ever, would falsify their views. MrVoluntarist 23:31, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

Oh hey, it looks like someone else agrees with me, based on the history. Well, that's what happens when non-fanatics edit the article. Don't they know? WE'RE GONNA RUN OUT OF OIL AND INVESTORS ARE TOTALLY IGNORANT OF THIS!!!!! MrVoluntarist 23:35, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

OK, I'll try to be very short, as you obviously didn't read what I wrote above, but just went straight to name-calling: The theory states A. From this, the hypothesis was derived that given B, C will happen. When we look at what happened, B did not happen. Thus we have not tested the theory. Hypotheses derived from theory and the theory are not the same. Try to read up on Lakatos, maybe? Or maybe read what Hubbert actually wrote, and try to figure out where he states what his theory is and where he makes assumptions to facilitate deriving hypotheses from his theory.

Congratulations on someone agreeing with you and from this being able to conclude that I am a fanatic. Your abilities in good factual discussion never cease to amaze me. Glad that you can read fanaticism into an argument about epistemology --Jakob mark 21:14, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

I don't think I could have put it any better. From the Hubbert "theory" you derive a hypothesis that given B, C will happen. Of course, you don't really know if B happened until C happens, but you know for a fact C will happen. So, anytime you say C's going to happen, you will never have to be held accountable for its failing, because that's just proof that B didn't really happen! You're always right, those people just can't see the light. That's a fanatic's "epistemology" if I ever saw it.

I'd be glad to read Lakatos, as soon as you finish the pseudoscience article, in particular the section on identifying it. Take particular note of:

1. assertion of claims that cannot be verified, or falsified in the event they are inaccurate, incorrect or irrelevant (see also: falsifiability)
2. assertion of claims that are vague rather than precise, that lack measurements, and that use scientific terms such as "force" in non-standard and undefined ways
3. assertion of claims that a theory predicts something that it has not been shown to predict

And hon, that's just the first three lines! Oh, and remember, intelligent design isn't really science, because *real* science makes falsifiable predictions, unless of course the world economy is at stake. MrVoluntarist 03:16, 31 May 2006 (UTC)

B in this particular case includes two assumptions, namely

1. That the ulimately recoverable resources of onshore and offshore oil were 1250 billion barrels. He very strictly assumed this to be the case (based on other people's research) in his 1956 paper.
2. That the usage of oil would grow with the developing of oil fields. His theorem strictly speaks of theoretical extraction speeds.

Hon, we're thus very easily capable of falsify the B. The falsification of these has nothing to do with A. If the B were not shown to be false, I would very much agree with you that we were in fact nearing in on the pseudoscience category. The core of the theory, as it was originally stated by Hubbert (in his 1956 text and his 1971 text, among others), was:

1. Developing of energy fields increases expotentially over time, after a while with decining growth rates, until the declining growth rate falls to around zero.
2. That the top point of an extraction curve will occur when about half of the ultimately recoverable resources are used.

If our B's were something that we couldn't easily consider true or false in and by itself, then it would be pseudo-science. But our core facts are falsifiable, and our assumptions are falsifiable in themselves, and if our assumptions are falsified it is not a 'test' of the theory as such. Our assumptions B will at all times have to be of a form that can be easily falsified, or we are indeed producing pseudo-science. Hubbert did not. Some peak oilers, granted, are.

The claims made in the research program are anything but vague.

Where you think of Hubbert's Peak as a single hypothesis (as Karl Popper would have you do), I think of it as a research program (Imre Lakatos). Thus, Marion King Hubbert is only one of the contributors to the Hubbert's Peak research program (albeit important enough to have the research programme named after him), and as such his predictions are only a part of the material on which to evaluate the theory's progressivity. --Jakob mark 16:22, 31 May 2006 (UTC)

1. assertion of claims that cannot be verified, or falsified in the event they are inaccurate, incorrect or irrelevant (see also: falsifiability)
2. assertion of claims that are vague rather than precise, that lack measurements, and that use scientific terms such as "force" in non-standard and undefined ways
3. assertion of claims that a theory predicts something that it has not been shown to predict

MrVoluntarist 02:16, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Claims can be falsified (albeit not single-hypothesis based but requiring combination of theory and assumptions), claims are anything but vague, and the theory has been shown to predict the production peak of single countries. I could of course copy/paste from above, but I trust in your ability to scroll. I read pseudoscience, found nothing that would place PO in that area, part of the deal was that you'd read Imre Lakatos, right? As much as I enjoy our little discussion, I kind of prefer when you state something new, btw. --Jakob mark 12:22, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

"Not a vague claim"??? What? "Oil will peak in 2000. Or 2005. But if it doesn't peak then, er, this doesn't count. Because it will peak. Sometime. Whenever it peaks, that's when the theory said it will peak." You don't call that vague? And it didn't predict the peak of various countries. People choose to extract or not to extract based on a number of factors, technical difficult of extraction is only one of them. If it becomes more attractive to drill in another country (for political reasons, or because it's just easier), then oil extraction will "peak" in one country even though the reason has nothing to do with the theory. Oil could peak because it becomes obsolete, like what happened with whale oil, and it would be completely unpredicted by the theory.

Oh, and how are those oil futures doing? Your portfolio is full of them, right? Because you believe what you say. MrVoluntarist 15:19, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

You still didn't quite get the concept of "research programs". Some say 2005, some say 2010, scientists in ASPO generally agree that it will be in that range, whereas individuals in ASPO have their own bids. Some generally give too many concise bids, imo. Haven't seen anyone state anything later than 2010 as of yet. That individuals' argumentation say that it doesn't matter whether it's 2005 or 2025 has nothing to do with the research - this is a topic that has gained some momentum outside research environments, and thus people will build argumentations of their own. --Jakob mark 17:37, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

Right, confirming what I said before. No one's going to give a specific claim. The dates keep passing, and people keep changing the date. This hasn't just been happening since 2000; it's been happening since the late 19th century, like when people said no one will drill to get oil, or they won't find oil in Texas. (!) This is exactly like the end times cults. "Worlds gonna end in year X, world's gonna end in year X" --year X passes-- and then "ah, nah, man, messed up there, I really meant X+5. Keep on prayin!" or "Great work guys! Your prayers/support of environmentalism has saved us all!" MrVoluntarist 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

If oil becomes obsolete, I'll put the "obsolete scientific theory" tag into the article myself, so I might agree with you as soon as your moonbeams get built.--Jakob mark 17:37, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

But I thought the Hubbert "theory" wasn't about oil, I thought it held for all exhaustible resources! (er, except for the ones that became obsolete or diminished in significance like whale oil, copper, spices, and aluminum). Oh hey, how's the work on the Peak Gold and Peak Diamond articles coming? MrVoluntarist 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

That many factors impact investment in drilling is obvious, but whether there is in fact oil to drill is probably the most important one. --Jakob mark 17:37, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

In that the literal non-existence of oil would mean people would eventually move on, yes. But numerous factors can cause people to stop exploring and/or extracting long before this. If a more easily exploitable source is found elsewhere, they could just switch to that. If environmental regulations increase, it may become non-economical despite the ease. If there is political instability and investors fear any profits from oil will be taxed, they may just not drill from there. There are many factors that can cause a faux "peak" that have nothing to do with Hubbert's "theory". MrVoluntarist 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Let's see a country regaining from a peak, then we can talk about it having nothing to do with the theory.--Jakob mark 17:37, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

I love your vision of how science works. 1) Pass laws that make it prohibitively expensive or illegal to extract oil. 2) Wait for oil extraction to taper off. 3) Leave laws in place for 30 years. 4) Mock those who believe the peak had nothing to do technological difficulties. It's true there hasn't been a libertarian revolution that's swept over oil-producing countries in the last thirty years that would reverse the regulations in the listed countries. That doesn't help your case, however.MrVoluntarist 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

My oil futures are doing fine, thank you for your concern. I've quadrupled my initial investment in a year, alas I was poor when I started. Are the moonbeams paying off equally well? --Jakob mark 17:37, 5 June 2006 (UTC)

Please. The value of your energy futures didn't quadruple. Don't even try that one. MrVoluntarist 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

I didn't say the value of single futures quadrupled. I said I quadrupled my initial investment while investing/speculating in oil futures. I don't have access to buy options for anything later than December 2007, due to my home country (Denmark) and my low start investment of less than $5,000. However, my personal investment history is of limited value for the discussion of what constitutes science, only mentioned it as a courtesy, since you asked me so kindly.

In my country, Denmark, there has been very few restrictions on offshore drilling, and the peak point was 2002, and noone predicts that it will turn around. Do you have data of world wide restrictions that make it prohibitively expensive to extract oil? I'd love to see it if you do. Or just give me a bit more than Alaska, maybe?

About predictions: One must evaluate the quality of the data and give caveats accordingly. I used to do opinion polls, and one has to give an error margin on one's test material, as one doesn't have full access to all data. In this case, noone has access to the full data set, as it doesn't exist, and a good scientist would give a prediction and a margin of error accordingly. That margin of error could easily be 5 years, depending on how full closure of the data you have got, how far ahead your predictions go and how dependant on external factors your prediction is. That is not necessarily "vague". Some have indeed given very bold and very precise predictions, such as Deffeyes and Campbell who both claims that we're past the peak. Other geologists take more cautions in their bids. All members of ASPO, to my knowledge, agree that it will be no later than 2010. Laymen like me tend to claim that it doesn't matter when, as it would be completely ridiculous if a guy like me should give a qualified bid on when the peak will occur. I don't have the data, I don't have oil production expertise, so my guess (and, yes, I guess. I'm not researching PO) is purely based on whom of the scientists I give the most credit. There's a geological core involved in Peak Oil, but there is certainly a way larger group of laymen, whom cannot have qualified opinions on when the peak will be.

About peak gold: I know of nothing where goal has unique abilities of great importance - it was a metal originally used excactly because of its scarcety. I know of things where diamonds used to have these abilities, but the significance of diamonds is a limited one. Of course, the reason why Peak Oil is given some interest is because some believe that it is a commodity that cannot easily be replaced, if at all. When peak gold occurs/occured, I have no doubt we'll manage. When peak oil does, I have quite a few doubts. But while it is evident that the oil angle is only given interest because a lot of people are concerned about the issue, that does not mean that the Hubbert peak theory does not apply for other materials. Just that a "peak gold" article would be very uninteresting. We're discussing two things: 1) whether a theory is significanct and 2) whether a theory is interesting. If oil is easily replaceable, the theory is no longer interesting. That the theory holds true in places where it is uninteresting is... well, uninteresting. We can discuss whether it's interesting about oil, that could be a funny discussion. I believe it is, because I don't see anything that could replace oil in sufficient ammounts if the peak arrives before 2010. Btw, please note that I have never claimed that PO will be the end of the world or anything of that kind.

And your argument seems to be that when a Peak Oil prediction is wrong, there is no excuse. When it is right, there is nothing but excuses and it had to do with complicated factors - you basically say that PO fails because it couldn't account for the Yom Kippur and the Iranian Revolution, while the fact that it got single countries right is due to all sorts of factors, namely the political affiliation of governments worldwide (which would be very hard to test). I'm not invalidating your argumentation, just pointing out that you use variable criteria, depending on what point you are trying to make.

Oh and your argumentation that other people in the past have made false predictions and that predictions as such therefore are wrong is not that much of an argument. You can't equate modern estimates based on scrutinizing data sets with what someone said 200 years ago.

But thanks for discussing the subject so friendly in your last post. As it seems we'll discuss this for a while anyway, could you clarify for me what you meant with "(And earth isn't the only source of energy or oil, FYI.)", please? --Jakob mark 15:20, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Tagged for Cleanup

I tagged this article for cleanup due to the fact that the entire article needs to better incorporate Campbell´s newly published paper asserting that the peak was reached back in December of 2005.

Er... to publish a paper about something that allegedly happened in December '05, you would need to start the paper after then. If you think it was given the time it deserved in writing it, and then went through peer review in the short time since then ... think again. And even if somehow already has, I wouldn't trust a paper alleging a peak based on waiting < 2 months. MrVoluntarist 14:39, 21 February 2006 (UTC)

"Current Events" section updates

This definitely needs to be watched. We do now know that Kuwait's production peaked in November 2005. We know that all the OPEC members except Saudi Arabia are producing at max. The big question is when will Saudi Arabia peak? There are optimistic statements from Saudi politicians, and negative ones from oil geologists.

Events are picking up. UPI reports (ref: http://www.upi.com/Energy/view.php?StoryID=20060214-124738-9900r) that Pemex says that their Cantarell oil field, Mexico's biggest field, is close to peaking.

Someone recently qualified the main page statement about those two fields "peaking" to "appear to have peaked". The companies operating those fields and their respective oil ministers say they have peaked. There's no controversy. Links to authoritative sources are provided for both oil fields. Unless someone comes up with a reasonable source that says either field hasn't peaked, I'll remove the "appears to have" in a week.

Perhaps the article should have a table of the ten or so largest oil fields, with notes and figures on their peaking status. --Nagle 17:33, 13 March 2006 (UTC)

My understanding is that the Saudi government has declared that information to be a state secret - but sure - good luck. Benjamin Gatti 04:11, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

If we can't ghet this information, which sounds credible, there is a very strong case for stating that the Saudi gov claimmthis info is a state secret (are we sure the top 10 oil fields are in Saudi Arabia?) SqueakBox 13:42, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

The top ten fields aren't in Saudi Arabia. The biggest field, Ghawar, is in Saudi Arabia. The next two are in Kuwait and Mexico, and those two are are already in decline.

Official reserve predictions from OPEC countries tend to be exaggerated. OPEC quotas are based on reserve predictions, so there's a big incentive to exaggerate. Reserves reported by OPEC countries doubled in the 1980s, without any new finds, when that rule went into effect. But information on "water cut" (how much water is coming out with the oil) does come out of Saudi Arabia, and numbers in the 30-55% range have come out. (The Ghawar field is using water injection to push out the remaining oil. When this is done, first more oil comes out, and over time, the fraction of water to oil, the "water cut", increases. When what's coming out is mostly water, the field is exhausted. So the "water cut" is an indication of how far the process has progressed.) Actual oil shipment numbers, though, tend to be reasonably realistic, though even those numbers are less reliable than you'd expect. Shipments are actuals; reserves are estimates, and politically motivated estimates at that.

This [statement from the Saudi Arabian chief of oil reservoir management] reports a 36% water cut at Ghawar in 2004, along with some very optimistic predictions about future production. A 36% water cut isn't all that bad; California wells, on average, have an 88% water cut. But California is well past its peak.

--Nagle 17:09, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

Reports of a big new offshore field in Mexico may be exaggerated. See this New York Times article, [Analysts Skeptical of Claims of a Large Mexican Oil Find]. There's only one exploratory well in the area so far. That's not enough to justify a 10 billion barrel assumption. Claiming that this field will replace Cantarell is premature. --Nagle 17:09, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

Compare apples with apples

The comparison of the hubbert peak graph with the AIEA graph is not sound. The Hubbert peak indeed is about oil. It is compared with an AIEA graph that includes gaz, coal renewable energies. Most of the increase in the AIEA graph is related to the increase in coal and renewable energy. Is there no other graph available ?

Weasly

Sentences beginning with "many argue", "few would disagree", and "it is clear" are weasly. (no signature)

The "weaslyness" has been fixed by someone, and the result seems an improvement.

• Some minor corrections:

"With crude-oil prices currently well-above $35 per gallon" - number can't be right.

Removal of bad link to synthetic oil projects by someone - a better link is to this speech by an official of the European Union. However, this does not indicate large projects underway; rather, it's the announcement of the beginning of an alliance announced yesterday to talk about the problem. Might deserve a mention in synthetic fuel, rather than here.

• In general, I'd suggest that material on oil alternatives be moved out to the article for the respective alternative. Then we can have a section on alternatives, consisting primarily of links to other articles. This will reduce the clutter and tighten the focus of this important article.

--Nagle 19:08, 13 March 2006 (UTC)

• Removed "Additionally, it has been observed that numerous oil fields that were 'tapped out' and let sit began to produce oil again years later, indicating that reserves were much larger than previously thought" and "Finally, it has been shown that oil is not a "fossile fuel" as is coal" per WP:V policy.

--Nagle 06:20, 27 March 2006 (UTC)

What the heck do I do ?

Gee, what a great frikkin time to be a 20 year old tryin to plan out his life. Every decision I make, I have to take into account the very realistic possibility of our current economy and society collapsing and either reverting to the 18th or 19th century or going into chaos. I don't really know what the heck everyone is arguing about, but I really am trying to look for somewhere to disucss how to deal with this issue of Peak Oil. I've never been that concerned about my future until I read into this and I dont know what the heck to do. I mean, with peak oil a very big possibility that will happen very soon, it completely alters alot of my goals and career plans. To tell you the truth, I'm even more upset that our governments dont give a crap and just ignore it so that the corporations and their friends in government office get richer. Seriously, our only chance is if everyone wakes up and starts changing things within our society and government. What better place than here, what better than time now. 69.156.88.98 01:23, 14 March 2006 (UTC)

Deep into my Greek Tragedy-cum-Comedy phase, I think it's amusing when information-sheltered people worry their heads off about commodity scarcities (such events historically always being the "mothers of invention") at the expense of worrying about getting their hapless heads chopped off by various & sundry Aztec/Thugee death-cults-reborn presently flood-filling their way across the globe.--Mike18xx 22:10, 28 March 2006 (UTC)

I agree: don't let your assumption that peak oil is imminent alter major decisions in your life. A "why finish college, we're all gonna die!" attitude doesn't help anyone. TastyCakes 17:48, 11 April 2006 (UTC)

Don't worry mate. I'm 29 - people have been predicting the end of the world/our civilisation since well before I was born. The biggest concrete change appears to have been the iPod, and maybe sushi. You still need to go to university, get a masters degree, and go to work in a management consultancy. Don't worry though. Many of the best management consultants wonder about changing things too, when they're not playing squash. Seriously. --85.210.16.49 20:59, 14 March 2006 (UTC)

I think learning how to grow your own food and a degree in environmental engineering would be a better way to prepare for the Post Peak Oil world that middle management. --8bitJake 22:22, 14 March 2006 (UTC)

I disagree. If you learn to be a good manager there will be plenty of work reorganising society. I honestly believe getting some solid wealth behind one is the best way to cope in a Hubbert post-peak world and that computer skills will be extremely valuiable. The question I ask myself is where will one be better. In a rich society like the UK or the US or a poor society like Honduras, SqueakBox 13:39, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

I don't know what to do if such a crisis ever came like this but I dont think it will come as people predict (rarely anything in our history does). Will there be a great reduction in the use of automobiles ?, yes. Only the select few will be able to have vehicles that run completely on gasoline or have more than one or two cars. I think what oil can be afforded will be reserved for air travel/transport and integral areas that oil replacements cant currently be found such as in food and pharmaceutical transportation and production, emergency services and manufacturing. As long as we are able to keep enough electricity flowing , we can lessen our dependance on oil and rely on more on other sources until we are able to reach a point of reliance on renweable energy like fusion (or whatever else is invented in the next 100 years).

Wow, I must have been out of town when the humourectomy salesman came knocking. Jon 03:47, 3 April 2006 (UTC)

What ? 69.157.101.225 07:40, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

Cambridge Energy Research Associates? Other citation problems

I see a big glaring hole in your citations list. Nobody bothered to look at the Camridge Energy Research Associates website www.cera.com. You did cite Daniel Yergin, which is good because he's the head honcho over at CERA. Still, we need to give this group more mention. They have consistently and vehemently decried Peak Oil theory, and they assert oil production will increase for the next 2-4 decades until it doesn't peak, but rather levels off.

The article talks at length about Deffyes and Campbell, but there's no mention of CERA. Unlike academic activists, CERA is an actual consulting firm which has to provide accurate information about energy as a part of its business model. Unless you want to argue about conspiracy, which could be true, but you can make conspiracy arguments for anything. The only other consulting firm I've seen mentioned in these debates is petroconsultants, and the only first party information I have on them is a dead link (petroconsultants.org). This leads me to have serious questions about their authority. Meanwhile, too many of the peak oil websites cite petroconsultants.

That's another thing: too many of these web sites play on our fears and emotions. Life after the Oil Crisis had me crapping my pants for a week before I actually started researching this topic intelligently. Furthermore, a lot of the websites start off with doomsday Peak Oil scenarios and then go on to advocate alternate "green" energy. I don't think there's anything wrong with promoting Solar Power, but if you're going to advocate it, have the candor to be up front that that's your agenda and don't try to scare people. We need to address this as scientists, not activists.

To sum up, if you're going to write a legitimate article, you have to use legitimate sources. CERA is one, and the absence of their mention in this article or in the citations is a big gaping hole.172.167.228.22 13:35, 20 March 2006 (UTC)Nick C

CERA's new study on the future of energy, "Dawn of a New Age", isn't out yet. That's going to be interesting. The last CERA big oil study was their CERA 2004 liquids study, and two years in, that's looking a bit overoptimistic regarding expansions within the OPEC community.

If you want to see what's actually happening, see the IEA oil production graphs. These are actuals, not predictions. --Nagle 19:21, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

There is unquestionable political motivation in almost all the advocastes or decriers of Hubbert. As you say some are using it to try to promote their own brand of green energy, see above how some editors believe Hubbert justifies sociaism and others believe it negates siocialism. It seems to me this whole issue needs addressing in the article, SqueakBox 13:47, 20 March 2006 (UTC)

• Nick C, I completely agree with you. When I read sites like Life After the Oil Crash I went into this huge state of fear and depression that took me a while to get out of. Once I was able to think about it logically, I did more research into it and realized how much of an agenda there is behind various arguments on the subject. I was also able to get over it after realizing much of the world outside of North America has to get by already with oil shortages and high prices by finding other methods and solutions. I also was able to point out several flaws and contradictions in Life After the Oil Crash, and the fact that the author doesnt post any of the (im sure numerous) e-mails which heavily critique his site, predictions, and the theory as a whole. Yet, he still finds time to post every e-mail that agrees with him, his views and how one should completely alter his/her life to make room for it. The congressman who actually cited such a ridiculous source in his congress speech clearly has a similar agenda. The congressman basically said the Peak Oil scenario or disaster "could happen" and this appears to have some sort of anti-republican, pro-enivronmentalist connotation. I think it was idiotic on his part because Peak Oil theory, if anything , probably supports any cause the current US government has for interfering in the mid-east and if the true objective is to secure Oil fields, I think most Americans would support the US military presence. I mean who wouldnt support it when they are fighting to maintain resources for such an affluent, free and enjoyable lifestyle ? When you take all this political bias into account, you can see that any Peak Oil "crisis" or "end of our civilization" scenario contains alot of BS and POV of people with little or no hope for their own future. 69.157.107.145 01:43, 21 March 2006 (UTC)

Abiotic oil again

I do agree that Abiotic Oil should be included in the article. However, it should by no means be included where User:Mike18xx keeps placing it. It has got a place under critique, but it cannot be considered a main part of the article, only an arbitrary critique of the theory as such - if it even is that. Some of the abiotic crowd seem to think that the regeneration rate is incredibly low, and then it does not make any difference. Here, the most vivid criticism from a very small group of geologists who believe in the abiotic theory (which makes the group even smaller) is taken in as it is commonplace, which is wrong both within the abiotic group and within the larger group of geologists. --Jakob mark 09:59, 28 March 2006 (UTC)

General observations: 1. In Wikipedia, one should not have to hit Page Down half a dozen times to discover that there exists a "Critique" section two screen-heights tall. 2. The *merits* of the criticism are less relevant than the fact that they do exist. 3. I've linked the Critique section from the same location where you removed/moved my added sentence of yesterday. 4. Yes, I'd treat *evolution* exactly the same way, even though I consider "Creationists"/"intelligent-design" proponants to be brain-dead cretins.--Mike18xx 22:40, 28 March 2006 (UTC)

I just thought that it seemed a bit strange that the only critique discussed in the first section was the abiotic one, since that is not the mainstream of the critique of Peak Oil either. I like the way it is done now, where the three main types of criticism is incorporated into a small section in the introduction. And just to clarify, I didn't change anything in the article. Sorry if I didn't express myself clearly yesterday. --Jakob mark 01:52, 29 March 2006 (UTC)

New Wikireason Debate Wiki

There seems to be quite a bit of discussion that is outside the scope of this article. Why not take it to wikireason: peak oil?? The perfect place for the issues brought up here and keep this discussion focused on the merits of the article and how to improve it. H0riz0n

Ahhh! My clever plan to neuter the credibility of Wikipedia gains momentum! Soon there will be *hundreds* of websites with "Wiki-" in their titles siphoning off search-engine hits which formally went to Wikipedia, and nose-diving she will go in the Google page rankings. Within a year, the mere mention of "Wiki-"(anything) as a credible source at a social gathering will be met with gut-clutching spasms of hysterical laughter. --Mike18xx 05:39, 9 April 2006 (UTC)

Whatever.

Becoming somewhat alarmed after reading this article, I have gone ahead and started the peak oil debate on Wikireason. -- Beland 21:48, 20 April 2006 (UTC)

Self-contradiction

The date which ASPO predicts for peak oil is not consistently reported. Has it changed its position? -- Beland 21:18, 20 April 2006 (UTC)

Oil just hit $75/barrel

Oil just hit $75/barrel today. Peak oil is probably here. When the Saudis admit that Ghawar has peaked, we're definitely there. Cantarell Field and Burgan Field peaked last year. Peak oil may be a historical article soon. --John Nagle 18:49, 21 April 2006 (UTC)

Just because oil hits a new high doesn't mean peak oil is here, especially since it appears to be caused by political disruptions in Iran and Nigeria, just like all the past price jumps. I think the argument that the peak won't be reached until at least 2010 is fairly strong, although I'm sure plenty around here would bite my head off for that.. TastyCakes 07:27, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

2006 or 2010 doesnt make a lot of difference. if this stuff is almost on us we may be in for a bumpy ride, SqueakBox 18:18, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

Adjusting for inflation, $75 a barrel oil is nothing new. geopolitical issues during 1979-80 meant oil averaged an inflation adjusted $97 a barrel in March 1980. Gas reached an inflation adjusted $3.17 a gallon in the spring of '81. we are at $2.85, currently.

April '06 production data released by the IEA shows oil has not peaked yet. In April we punched thru 85 million barrels a day. In addition considering that now there is around 2 trillion barrels accounted for (850 million used up and 1.15 trillion to go), we are not far off the URR of 2.2 trillion barrels that the US EIA suggests will mean a peak in 2026 which is when I reckon peak oilers will enter the ball park. Personally I reckon the peak will be February 2031 (its as good a prediciton than any).

Merge sections

It looks like it is time to merge the "Has it happened already?" section with the "Current events pertaining to oil reserves" section. I would say that the "Has it happened already?" section is more relevant, and since it appears first in the article, immediately below the Introduction, that the "Current events" section should be merged up into it. Actually, since it will take a year or two to be able to definitively answer the question, "Has it happened already?" it might be better to go back to the name the first section had previously, "Is it happening now?." That section name also fits better with "Current events." Jkintree 15:02, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

The main reason for the "Current events" section was to provide a place to add neutral point of view news items about recent changes, without much in the way of conclusions. "Has it happened already" reflects a conclusion, and requires different sourcing and verification than current events. (Fox News actually has an article today, "Experts: Global Oil Production May Peak Soon". [3]. There's nothing new there, but it's surprising to see that in Fox News.)

Well, current events might not be neutral. Declining discoveries, declining production at Burgan and Cantarell, hurricanes disrupting production in the Gulf of Mexico, and so on indicate that world production might be peaking now. No conclusions yet, but the weight of evidence is certainly growing. Maybe the "Current events" section should be moved closer to the top of the article. Jkintree 19:48, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

Format Changes

I did a few things, trying not to alter any of the data, especially in the topic paragraphs.

• Removed some nasty commas from the first paragraph.
• On the outset (first para) made it clear it was contoversial; I'm a fan, but the cricitism is heated.
• Removed a few wikilinks that info-cluttered the topic paras, as well as redundant ones, etc.
• Merged some paras without keeping them too long.

In other words: made it shorter and more readable. The things I removed were either implied or redundant. Lastly, I added the theory header above the Has it Happened? header, since it makes more sense (to me) to display theory first. I think I'm going to go on with this, if there aren't too many complaints about this change. Please tell me any POV issues; I'm only trying to make this more accessible. Sorry my initial summary was weird; accidentally submitted wrong article, tried fixing it with new one. Skol 17:15, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

California and Gulf Coast oil drilling restrictions

There's some new interest in doing some drilling in the Santa Barbara channel, but that field is pretty much pumped out. [4] The proposed 40 new wells might be good for about 8000 bbl/day for about 10 years, which is nicely profitable but no big deal. (200 bbl/day per well, for new drilling, only makes sense at current oil prices.) Nobody thinks there's a new big field there. There are still 19 offshore platforms in the Santa Barbara channel, and there's been drilling there since the 1920s. So it's well-explored. So I took out the paragraph about "environmental restrictions" being a big deal in that area.

On the Florida front, the objections to oil drilling near the Florida coast come from Florida Republicans[5]. (Alabama, Misissippi, Louisiana and Texas have 40,000 offshore wells now.) Amusingly, California, in one of the most beautiful beach areas in the world, permits drilling three miles offshore. Florida Republicans want a 150-mile no-drilling zone. Actually, nobody really wants to build far-offshore platforms in Hurricane Alley, but oil is now expensive enough to justify trying. The Florida tourism industry is terrified of near-shore oil platforms, but they're probably coming, and soon. What we're really seeing here is that the marginal fields that were previously bypassed are getting a second look, but these aren't big wins.

Nobody really expects total US production to cease declining. Even ANWR isn't that big. There's nothing like Spindletop becoming available. --John Nagle 07:30, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

I'll have to do some research to verify but when I was discussing this with some friends at BP (granted a biased source) they felt that if restrictions were removed to drilling that US could after a 8-10 year ramp up time match or exceed their historical oil production levels. I'm not arguing that oil will never run out in the US just that if drilling were allowed that would push the US peak out several decades. I will revise my addition to that paragraph to state that if environmental and political restrictions were removed that it could lower slope on the downside, until I find more data to verify what I was told before. Rujholla 22:23, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

Ok just from what I have found so far the 2 new oilfields that could be developed in Alaska would put us close to equaling our peak oil production figures of the 70's. ANWR, even the conservative estimates would produce 1.4 Million Barrels / Day. Then the Gull Island developments if allowed and completed would add more that 2 million barrels / day. This would bring the US total to almost 10 million barrels per day which is close to our peak production. There are also indications that the new deepwater drilling will add another 2 or 3 million barrels per day to our current production in that area. So I am reverting my original changes back into place. Rujholla 00:03, 2 May 2006 (UTC)

Those figures need to be sourced. The DoE study for ANWR says peak production should be between 0.6 to 1.6 million bbl/day, with the USGS estimating 0.9 million bbl/day. That's the projected peak after a 12-year ramp-up, followed by a ramp down. Prudhoe Bay peaked at 1.6 million bbl/day in 1987, so, best case, ANWR substitutes for Prudhoe Bay. And that's the most optimistic case; the likely case is much lower.

More on Florida later. Interestingly, Cuba is now looking into offshore drilling, much to the annoyance of the anti-Castro people. --John Nagle 01:04, 2 May 2006 (UTC)

Keep in mind that the US peak passed decades ago. Therefore, the US peak can't be shifted out unless we can actually exceed the old US peak with a new peak. I have not seen any reputable estimates that claim we could come close to doing this. I'd very interested to see such references if they can be produced. Johntex\^talk 01:52, 2 May 2006 (UTC)

abiotic theory

How does the abiotic theory account for the decades-old peak in the global rate of oil discoveries? Jkintree 19:01, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

Could it be because we are using oil faster than it is generated via abiotic processes? Rujholla 14:52, 4 May 2006 (UTC)

The fossil theory says it takes millions of years for oil to form. For practical purposes in contemporary civilization, this makes petroleum a finite resource, which is well supported by the decades-old peak in the global rate of oil discoveries. The fossil/finite theory is also supported by the pattern repeated at thousands of oil fields of discovery, ramp up of production to peak, then decline in production. What does the abiotic theory say about the speed of oil generation? If it is too slow to meet contemporary demand for oil, or to affect the peak in global oil production, why introduce the topic into this article? Jkintree 15:16, 4 May 2006 (UTC)

The abiotic oil article indicates that total abiotic oil discovered worldwide to date is about eight barrels. Total. It's some hydrocarbon guck that doesn't seem to have a biological origin. This is more of a geological curiosity than an energy source. If there were much abiotic oil around, more of it would probably have been discovered by now. --John Nagle 05:44, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Nuclear replacement

Is this true? "30 gigabarrels of oil per year (1.74 X 10^17 BTU) can be replaced with 17 Palo Verde NGS (3 X 10^12 kw-hr per year = 1 X 10^16 BTU) sized nuclear plants." That makes replacing oil seem trivial. Is it correct? I know we use 30 gigabarrels of oil per year. And I know that Palo Verde NGS generates 3 gigawatt-hr per year. 71.209.214.60 21:30, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

Oops. I found the mistake. It's 17,000 PVNGS plants. Is that right? 71.209.214.60 21:47, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

Yes. 3 gigawatt-hr per year is 3 x 10^9, not 3 x 10^12. By the way, it's a mark of a good scientist to spot one's own mistakes, and to correct them as soon as possible. Well done. Jkintree 15:27, 4 May 2006 (UTC)

That's still not right. It's not 3 gigawatt-hr per year (which is a wierd unit, anyway). A 1 megawatt generator on a truck (a standard Caterpillar product) will put out about that much energy in a year. Typical nuclear plants are around a gigawatt, a thousand times bigger. That's roughly 3 X 10^12 watt-hours per year, or 3 terawatt-hours per year, for a typical plant. --John Nagle 05:22, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

so are we basically screwed if this "peak oil" thing happens in 2010 ? And if so, Im guessin its best to live in a western country (which I do) where theres loads of wealth and resources ?

Depends on your definition of "screwed". There may be severe economic pain in the process of adjusting to having much more expensive oil (if that indeed happens); a nasty, extended recession is a distinct possibility. But the idea promulgated by some twits that we're going back to the Middle Ages is about as sensible as the idiots that thought that the Y2K problem would do the same. Regardless, it's pretty much always better to live in a Western country with loads of wealth and resorces. --Robert Merkel 05:28, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

...and a massive military. — goethean ॐ 14:28, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

Nuclear can not replace oil give our currently installed infrastructure. How do you plan to drive your car on nuclear energy? Carbonate 07:48, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

The Campbell "understanding"

The article currently reads: Campbell argues that the USGS estimates are methodologically flawed (although he himself has admitted that he doesn't understand their methodology).

The real problem with this is that it by all probability stems from peakoildebunked, and what he really states is that he is not an expert in probability theory - there is a very far reach from not being an expert to not understanding the gist of it. So, one can state that he himself does not claim to be an expert on the USGS methodology, but claims that it builds on premises which he understand and contest. The peakoildebunked statement is built upon this quote: [6] and the JD statement can be read here: [7]. So, unless anyone objects strongly (and qualified), I will rewrite the paranthesis to: (although he does not claim to be an expert in probability theory) --Jakob mark 15:57, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

U.S. Reserves

The November, 2002 issue of the ASPO newsletter contains a feature article about oil production in the United States (http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter23_200211.pdf). A graph on page 6 of that issue shows U.S. oil production peaking at 1971. That graph also shows the plateau in production that occurred around 1977 when production at Prudhoe Bay in Alaska began. The graph shows total U.S. production resuming its decline in 1988 when production at Prudhoe Bay peaked. Another plateau in U.S. production started in the 1990s when offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico began. Total production, as shown in that graph, is expected to resume its decline as production in the Gulf peaks. In order for U.S. production to increase again, the reserves in Alaska and off-shore areas, that have been protected up to now, would have to be much greater than the reserves that have already been depleted. Can anyone provide a reference that would document the size of the reserves that might remain in ANWR and offshore? Jkintree 16:14, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

I posted something earlier about ANWR. The USGS estimates[8] offer something like a 3:1 range (there hasn't been enough drilling to really size the field) but the consensus is that ANWR is smaller than Prudhoe Bay. Offshore Southern California is nearly exhausted; there's been drilling there since the 1920s. Offshore Florida, nobody knows, because there's been no drilling, but it's reasonable to assume that the geology is similar to offshore Mississippi and Alabama. Cuba is now adding offshore wells, and they have a few billion barrels, higher than previously anticipated. Offshore platforms in the North Atlantic portion of the hurricane zone are going to be difficult and expensive, but it can be done. Hopefully without too many big oil spills. --John Nagle 17:00, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

Note: the USGS also had a "consensus" that no oil would be found ... in Texas! MrVoluntarist 14:56, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

How much oil has been found in Texas in the last 30 years? Jkintree 15:41, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

How many drilling permits have been granted? MrVoluntarist 17:17, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

Alberta tar sands

Extracting oil from Alberta tar sands is not trivial. Massive quantities of natural gas and water are required. If 1 million barrels of oil per day are produced from Alberta tar sands today, how long would it take to ramp up production to 2 or 3 Mbpd? Would that be fast enough to make up for lost production at Burgan, Cantarell, the North Sea and other declining fields? Jkintree 16:37, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

What could that possibly mean? A child can understand that DRILLING for oil ... don't even mention offshore drilling, or deepwater driling ... is far and away the most complex, difficult and scary task undertaken by man. It's harder than going to the moon. Have you ever seen a drilling rig or an FSPO? In contrast, "mining" tar sands is no more than running around with a dump truck and scooping it up. It's like ** farming **. There is no technology involved. It's far, FAR, simpler than open-pit coal mining, say. The early processing of extra-heavy oil (from Alberta, etc) is a matter of - steaming it. I'm guessing you have never seen any of these operations.

To compare "conventional" oil drilling (the most stunningly complex, dangerous, and expensive thing mankind undertakes, and the absolute cutting edge of technology in every field from robotics to materials science) to Albertan "mining" ("Look, I've got a REALLY BIG DUMP TRUCK - IT'S YELLOW") is truly incomprehensible.

Your comment is beyond the bizarre, beyond the incomprehensible, beyond the childish. It's plain weird. It is really incredible that extremely basic matters like this have to be discussed to get to point one.

OK. Big scoops and big trucks; that's trivial. Extracting oil from tar sands also means big consumption of water and big emissions of carbon dioxide. Excuse me for being skeptical if you claim that all of this is trivial. Jkintree 15:44, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

Jink. For god's sake. Discussing this with you is extremely weird. So now you're saying it IS trivial, BUT it produces lots of CO2. So what? What the heck are you talking about? What do you mean by "consumes" a lot of water? In the sense that a steam engine consumes a lot of water? When water is turned in to steam, it rains again. There is plenty of water at hand in Alberta, it's a non-issue.

Jink, can you try to CLEAR UP, INSIDE YOUR MIND, what point you are trying to make? Try to understand that the whole industry is moving to oil sands, becuase (a) it is spectacularly easy to turn oil sands in to petrol (far, far easier than messing about with drilling, etc) and (b) there is just so, so much oil sands laying around. So: what is your point? Are you saying you disagree with that, based on your understanding of engineering, you think, no, that's all a lie, it's actually really difficult to get at oil sands, there actually is no oil production in Alberta, etc etc. Or are you saying you don't LIKE oil sands? What the heck are you actually saying?

Finsally, can you PLEASE NOT ridiculously and pointlessly delete the ONLY PARAGRAPH in the intro of the article that is simply factual, leaving your comment "oh, I'm still skeptical". Can you STATE IN ENGLISH what the heck YOU ARE SKEPTICAL ABOUT? What does that MEAN ? Skeptical about WHAT? the existence of Canada? What?

Can we find out who this person is and block them? They are abusive and keep twisting what Jink is saying. Extracting bitumen from the tar sands requires massive capital investments and consumes enormous amounts of energy. This is what Jink said in the first place and whoever these unsigned comment are from keeps attributing to Jinks things Jink did not say. After reading the "can you read integers" reverts I suspect this person is unaware of any real facts. Carbonate 07:36, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

I'm skeptical that extracting oil from tar sands "trivially consigns peak theory to the history books." The article on Athabasca Oil Sands contains a section on "Environmental impacts" that mentions the waste water and the CO2 emissions problems. Anything that increases our CO2 emissions requires a more thoughtful response than a simplistic dismissal of, "So what?" As discussed below, the rate of oil extraction from tar sands is increasing faster than had been estimated a few years ago. Whether it will be fast enough remains to be seen. I acted hastily when I completely deleted the information about tar sands from the Peak Oil article. Right now, I still think the information belongs in the section "Alternative sources of oil." Jkintree 16:42, 19 May 2006 (UTC)

Why did the anonymous guy split up the first comment? It is clear from the rest of the statement that "not being trivial" doesn't apply primarily (or at all) to technology, as the anonymous whiner seemed to think. I have reattached the rest of the original comment. TastyCakes 16:00, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

What do you mean by "whiner"? What's the best way to respond to being called a whiner? Should I call you "plain stupid," "childish," "an obvious moron" or what? I need guidance here. Note that William M. Connolley will be blocking you from posting for 12 hours for using rough language.

No, the best way to respond is to stop whining. If you have points to make, make them in a constructive manner, don't truncate the original comment to help your case against it. And stop writing every post like you're near histeria. Also, Jkintree has a point even if he's not conveying it very concisely: replacing conventional oil with oil sand oil is not trivial because of logistical matters and the fact that in all likelihood at some point an alternative to natural gas will have to be found to power most of the projects. Construction of a nuclear powerplant is hardly trivial. TastyCakes 17:55, 19 May 2006 (UTC)

Hm, I don't know. I guess we're just going to run out of oil. No one will expect oil prices to increase, nor invest more in extraction when it happens. And we're going to run out of gold and diamonds too. Bummer. MrVoluntarist 16:49, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

We expect oil price increases, and greater investments in tar sands extraction, deep water, and other nonconventional sources of oil. We also expect greater efforts to conserve, improve energy efficiency, and develop renewable alternatives. Jkintree 16:24, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

Well, I'm just saying, I appreciate what you're doing. People would totally forget to try to make money if you didn't remind them that energy is one way. MrVoluntarist 17:18, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

This is all covered at Athabasca Oil Sands. Current construction should get to 2Mbpd by 2010 and maybe 4Mbpd by 2015. And the newest in-situ projects are self-fueling; they don't need external natural gas. --John Nagle 17:04, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

OK. That's a pretty rapid ramp-up; from 1 Mbpd to 4 Mbpd over a ten year period starting in 2005. The other side is the rate of decline in production of conventional oil once we cross that peak, and we may have already crossed it in 2005. If it's a net rate of decline of 2% per year, starting at about 80 Mbpd, after 10 years, the production of conventional oil would have dropped to about 65.4 Mbpd. We're talking about a gain of 3 Mbpd from tar sands, and a possible loss of almost 15 Mbpd from conventional oil by 2015. Jkintree 16:02, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

The ramp-up is happening much faster than expected. Three years ago, with lower oil prices, it was expected to take decades to reach those levels. Now, enough money is being thrown at the problem to speed things up. The amount of plant required to exploit oil sands is huge. Getting enough construction people to work there is tough. (Want a job? They're hiring. But try to rent an apartment in Fort McMurray. They're putting people in huge temporary dorms.) The area is out at the end of 500km of two-lane road, the road is jammed with heavy trucks, and the ground is frozen half the year. The infrastructure problems are being dealt with; highway widening, a heavy rail link, and a much bigger sewerage plant for Fort McMurray are underway. But building all this stuff takes a while. There's a nice video here [9], intended for construction workers, of construction on the Long Lake project. That will give you a sense of what has to be built. --John Nagle 16:32, 18 May 2006 (UTC)

I doubt the 4 Mbpd mark. The current boosts are the result of upgrades started long ago and the rising costs of materials and labour make further investments even more expensive. Also, the new insitu process that Nagle speaks of is compleatly untested. I havn't heard how anyone plans to "relight" this process if the air pumps go offline for any period of time. As for the self fueling nature of these processes, it is true in so far as it consumes vast quantities of the oil in place (fuel you don't recover). All the current insitu processes still use steam which requires energy. Carbonate 07:46, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

The Long Lake project has been moving along rather quickly. The prototype plant using the new process started up in 2003, so the process isn't exactly untested. Construction on the main plant started in Q3 2004, and is on track to start extracting bitumen this fall, so it only took about two years from groundbreaking to first output. Next year, the "upgrader", which cracks bitumen down into something with shorter hydrocarbon chains, is supposed to come on-line. That's well-understood technology, but it's being scaled up. Problems involved things like getting the biggest pressure vessel every moved by rail out to Fort McMurray. The next phase of the Long Lake project is already underway. --John Nagle 21:16, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

The Long Lake project is a SAGD system, how is that self fueling? I assumed that your self fueling statement was referring to the highly questionable plan to pump air into a source well to burn a percentage of the oil in place which generates heat and CO, CO2 to drive the rest to wells further on for extraction. Carbonate 14:30, 18 June 2006 (UTC)

Finding oil with satellites

A happy accidental discovery with SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) mapping satellites was that when the wind is calm over shallow water, they can map the ground below the water due to gravitational effects that cause water to 'lump up' over things like sandbars and rock ridges. USGS mapmakers discovered this while examining SAR maps of the US east coast and someone noticed that the image not only showed the land elevations, it also showed the bottoms of bays and river mouths. It was quickly exploited as a way to produce charts faster, cheaper and more accurate than traditional depth soundings from ships.

Another accidental discovery is the same satellites can spot oil film on the ocean surface when wind speeds are between about 9 to 13 knots. The oil film slightly dampens the wave action, enough for the mapping satellites to spot the difference. This 'bonus feature' has been used to track oil spills, and also to find natural oil seeps.

There's natural oil seeps practically everywhere under the oceans and seas.

I'll leave that as a teaser for anyone who wants to research on their own.

Crime In the Streets

Having read most of the above, I am startled to find only one instance of the word "crime" in the discussion. First, I am not willing to debate the existance or lack of existanfce of a "peak oil". That is for you guys to do. But recent events (in the 70s and now in 2006) have me convinced that oil is a big problem. It seems to me that when oil runs out (if it does), crime will become rampant. What else could happen when so many people are competing for such vital resources? Street crime! A fight to the death over a gallon of gas. Already in Texas we are seeing cases where trucks are parked over storage tanks at service stations and several thousand gallons are stolen at a time. Parking your car on the street or driveway would be risking theft of your gasoline by street punks armed with syphons. Who will come to the aid of a victim if the police cars are out of gas? Will crime reign? Where will life be best? Will it be in the US with its extreme reliance on gasoline? Or will life be better in Brazil, with its reliance on home-grown alcohol-based fuels and little or no use for middle eastern oil? Why would the US not plan for the worst case senario and not immediately start to build its own ethanol-based infrastucture and sugar-cane crops for alcohol production? Why are we in such love with middle eastern oil? Why risk our children's lives by not planning for the worst? Will our population decline with the decline in oil? How can our population not decline without resources to support our life-style? Can you imagine sharing half-a-tank of fuel with your neighbor? How about 3/4 of a tank with your neighbor? Will Americans learn how to walk on freeways? What are the alternatives? It seems to me that the act of buying fuels from outside the US is counterproductive for national security reasons as well as national economic reasons. Why should we risk it? Why not develop our own alternatives now? Imagine parking your car and having a dozen wild youths decend on your fuel tank each armed with a syphon hoses. What are you going to do? Shoot them? Will the laws need to be rewritten? Should fuel theft be an automatic death sentence? Or should it be a free-for-all? Catch if catch can? People will no longer be stealing cars, but stealing fuel. I suspect that cars will be abandoned along the road to such an extent that they will be "free" to anyone with enough money to fuel them. The automobile industry will become a thing of the past and there with it goes more than 10% of American jobs. Plan for the worst? Nah? We will just keep on going...until we crash and burn. Those Brazilians don't know beans about economics.

I'm sorry, is this just idle banter or do you actually want that stuff in the article? To me a lot of it is too speculative to put in the article, but if you just want to chat about it, wikipedia isn't supposed to be the place to do that. TastyCakes 20:06, 31 May 2006 (UTC)

The idea of planning is not idle banter, and the consequences of not planning for this event will be the greatest mistake in history. Consider not planning and you get the above scenario at the best.

Wikipedia is not a soap box, and it's not the place to plan survival in a mad max style world, either. And it seems pretty naiive to think you can change the world by talking about it on wikipedia. Especially when it's mostly speculation on your part. TastyCakes 04:58, 1 June 2006 (UTC)

opec reservers overestimated

from the french version,it says that the table below sujest that the reservers are at least 45% overestimated,because the reservers are taken in to acount for the voting in opec,and you can have credit at beter condition's.If it don't exist anywear in the english version i'm traslating his coresponding text(and some one from you tranlates my inglish tordes english)

Déclarations de réserves avec augmentations suspectes (en milliards de barils) d'après Colin Campbell, SunWorld, 1995
Année	Abou Dhabi	Doubaï	Iran	Irak	Koweit	Arabie saoudite	Venezuela
1980	28,00	1,40	58,00	31,00	65,40	163,35	17,87
1981	29,00	1,40	57,50	30,00	65,90	165,00	17,95
1982	30,60	1,27	57,00	29,70	64,48	164,60	20,30
1983	30,51	1,44	55,31	41,00	64,23	162,40	21,50
1984	30,40	1,44	51,00	43,00	63,90	166,00	24,85
1985	30,50	1,44	48,50	44,50	90,00	169,00	25,85
1986	31,00	1,40	47,88	44,11	89,77	168,80	25,59
1987	31,00	1,35	48,80	47,10	91,92	166,57	25,00
1988	92,21	4,00	92,85	100,00	91,92	166,98	56,30
1989	92,20	4,00	92,85	100,00	91,92	169,97	58,08
1990	92,20	4,00	93,00	100,00	95,00	258,00	59,00
1991	92,20	4,00	93,00	100,00	94,00	258,00	59,00
1992	92,20	4,00	93,00	100,00	94,00	258,00	62,70
2004	92,20	4,00	132,00	115,00	99,00	259,00	78,00

Le total des réserves déclarées est de 701 milliards de barils, dont 317,54 douteux. --Ruber chiken 01:19, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Better references? Quick summary/review of the Hubbert paper.

I've just briefly looked at Hubbert's paper, and while it does contain interesting bits, what's conspicuously absent is any justification for the Hubbert curve, though references to papers that might describe it are present.

In particular, no justification is given in that paper for the bell shape of the curve, as opposed to a rise-then-crash-to-zero sawtooth shape or any of various other possibilities, with the exception of an underlying assumption that the total production curve be continuously differentiable. References that explain this assumption of Hubbert's, and the underlying mathematical model, would be greatly appreciated.

Interesting bits (with notes doubly-indented)

• (after p. 25, too lazy to look it up now) "On the basis of the present estimates of petroleum and natural gas, it appears the culmination of world production of these products should occur within about half a century"

Hubbert treats natural gas, petroleum, oil shales, and tar sands separately. For purposes of evaluating this prediction, therefore, "oil" gained from processing oil shales must not be counted as petroleum.

• p. 25 "the maximum that appears likely while allowing for the necessary period of prolonged decline"

I cannot find a statement that explains why this decline should be necessary.

• p. 21 "Utilizing the method of extrapolation described earlier"

Am I blind? He just plain did not describe a method of extrapolation.

Assumptions about energy reserves:

• petroleum/natgas (Hubbert treats the two as linked):
  • world, land: 610 billon barrels (p. 15)
  • world, offshore: 400 billion barrels (p. 15)
  • US, land: 150 billion barrels (p. 16)
  • US, offshore: 20 billion barrels (p. 16)
  • Mideast, land: 375 billion barrels, "which can only be regarded as a rough order-of-magnitude figure" (p. 15)
  • world, total: 1250 billion barrels (p. 16)
• oil shales and tar sands
  • US, "oil obtainable from oil shales": 1000 billion barrels (p. 18)
  • Athabaska tar sands: "still not accurately known, but current estimates range from about 300 to 500 billion barrels of oil) (p. 20)
  • US tar sands: "only about 1 billion barrels of oil, with a few billion barrels more obtainable from the less minable deposits"
  • world, tar sands: "as an educated guess" 800 billion barrels (p. 20)

I believe these are all on the low end.

Again, the paper contains no explicit reference to the Hubbert curve, though it appears to use it implicitly.

Can anyone help me out here?

We claim that Hubbert's curve is based on a mathematical theory, and the reference contains nothing whatsoever of the sort.

I quote liberally from one of the sources of the Hubbert curve article:

In 1974, he presented several production curves for both the World and the United States, but was somewhat reticent in explaining the mathematical basis of his work. He referred to a bell-shaped curve, of which the most commonly used are the Normal or Gauss curve, and also to the derivative of the logistic curve (Bartlett 1999), but he gave no equations.

I haven't read all of that article yet, but the claim

Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of oil extraction which predicted that the cumulative amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve. The theory implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the derivative of the logistic curve at that time.

is unsourced. I'm doubting it, unless suitable references are supplied.

RandomP 02:30, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Source for central claim?

(Redundant with last post, but posted separately for ease of discussion.)

I'm totally going out on a limb here, but I'm asking for sources for and threatening significant rewrite of the following section:

Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of oil extraction which predicted that the cumulative amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve. The theory implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the derivative of the logistic curve at that time.

I know of no evidence that if such a mathematical model exists, it can be attributed to Hubbert.

Furthermore, I haven't yet found such a mathematical model.

Third, and most importantly, if such a model indeed exists, it needs to be put into the article. The statement that total oil produced would follow a logistic curve seems highly unintuitive; it would translate, roughly, to "any barrel of oil that has ever been produced will, every 1/r years, randomly choose another barrel of oil to produce; if that chosen barrel has already been produced, nothing happens; otherwise, there will be one more barrel of oil produced".

That seems odd. It seems particularly odd if the value of 1/r, measured in years, isn't supplied. Can any experts jump in here?

RandomP 02:38, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Time to archive again

Please archive this talk page, so we can start over. Thanks. --John Nagle 18:08, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

No longer a good article?

Based on the above and the following, I'm delisting the article in 24 hours:

• Image clearly shows a non-symmetric "Hubbert curve", contradicting that article.
• No reference given for Hubbert proposing production along a logistic curve.
• Hubbert misquoted on world oil production peaking in 2000. As far as I can tell, the quote is about world petroleum production, where petroleum is defined in the paper to exclude oil produced from oil shales and tar sands, and the year 2000 is not given.
• The mathematical model is missing. It's clearly an important part of the theory, and it absolutely needs to be in this article.

While I object to the article's focus on the supposed consequences of "Peak Oil" (a much weaker statement than the Hubbert peak) as well, that's something I could live with, as long as the article got the theory over with before indulging in that.

I'm perfectly happy to leave the status if you can convince me that there are verifiable sources, but there seems to be a mismatch between those that are given and what the article says.

But if there's no discussion, and no one steps forward to attempt to fix the article, it will be delisted.

RandomP 18:51, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Added the correct cites to the theory in the "Hubbert's theory" section. Both cites were already in the references, but I provided some page numbers. --John Nagle 20:11, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert's 1956 paper does not contain anything approaching what is portrayed as his theory here. No logistic curve, no mathematical model, not even a hint of an argument for why the curve should be symmetric.

This is consistent with the non-symmetric curve in the image.

Thanks for the ref to Deffeyes's book. To be acceptable as a source, this books needs to explain a mathematical model that results in a logistic curve. Using amazon's "search in this book" feature (looking for "logistic curve") reveals some citations that doesn't include anything that looks like a formula, nevermind a derivation. In fact, quotes like this:

"The open circles show the actual history. I prefer to avoid making strong analogies between the biological origins of the logistic curve and Hubbert's borrowing. In the most primitive sense, the logistic equation is a bit of algebra that gives a reasonable fit to the oil production history. If it didn't fit, we wouldn't be talking about it." (ibd p 41)

no hit for "differential" in the book

"Chapter 3 is the result of a happy accident: I found an alternative to Hubbert's complicated mathematics" (Front Matter)

We need a reference to Hubbert's complicated mathematics. There is no complicated mathematics in the 1956 paper.

Can you point to a specific quote in the book that is about a mathematical model, as opposed to a mere qualitative analysis of past data or a prediction based on a "reasonable fit to the oil production history"?

(Full disclosure: I don't have access to the book. I've read the excerpt, which is three or four pages including "Am I now promising war, famine, pestilence, and death? If we can keep the petrochemicals industry healthy, we might avoid the pestilence part. The other three are serious possibilities.")

There is a reference claiming Hubbert never gave a mathematical derivation. Can we have a specific quote saying the opposite, please?

RandomP 20:42, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

In response to the complaint by RandomP (talk · contribs) of No reference given for Hubbert proposing production along a logistic curve, I added a reference to Hubbert's original paper in the "Hubbert's Theory" section. RandomP (talk · contribs) then removed it as a duplicate reference. It may be somewhat difficult to satisfy this user's criteria for a "good article". --John Nagle 20:16, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Please assume good faith. I have just explained why I consider the 1956 reference to be insufficient to back up the claims made in the article. If I'm wrong, please point to where the 1956 paper mentions any of:

• the logistic curve
• a symmetric production-over-time pattern
• a mathematical model that results in a specific "best guess" curve.

I'm sure we can improve this article together. Thanks!

RandomP 20:42, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Please see Hubbert's paper, page 10, figure 11 for the symmetric production over time pattern. --John Nagle 21:02, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

I am unwilling to accept a mere figure as source for a statement that is precise and not referenced in the text; nevermind that there is still the matter of the evidently non-symmetric curve included in the article (which needs to stay until this is resolved - removing references that hint at inconsistencies in our articles is unacceptable to me).

Without even getting into questions of WP policy, note that that page contains three curves, all of which are supposedly examples of production curves; only the first appears symmetric, so far.

I think it's important to remember that Hubbert had to draw some curve as an example, and a symmetric one would do just as well as a non-symmetric one.

RandomP 21:14, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

---

Of course, if there are people who believe the article qualifies as a good article as it stands, without further edits, I shall go through with the dispute resolution process, and not make an edit that I know is controversial.

I suggest anyone who is of the opinion that "The article Hubbert peak theory satisfies the criteria for a good article at the time of my signature" add that statement, or something like it, and their signature below.

RandomP 21:33, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Overlinked

The "see also" and "external links" sections have way to many links. The see also section contains subsections like "informed," which are irrelevant to the article. The external links section is loaded with unneded links (which may even be spam). That section includes repeat links with similar information. I will do a huge removal of links in these sections. If you argue that certain links should be there or certian kept links should be removed, discuss that on the talk page (if they are controvertial) or add/remove them (if uncontrovertial), but be careful not to add spam links. Polonium 20:45, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Can we have an archive of references that once were in the article (even if they're unacceptable to stay in the article for whatever reason)? I'm finding it extremely difficult to find anything that's not, well, fluff, but ultimately how much non-fluff there is depends on how many references there are to chase.

RandomP 21:05, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

Yes, to view the removed links see this page. Polonium 19:47, 7 June 2006 (UTC)

Split

This article needs to be spit into Hubbert peak theory and Peak oil, no valid arguement for having them merged. --Striver 21:52, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

• Wait. If it turns out that there is indeed a theory established by Hubbert, that predicts non-shale non-tar-sand petroleum extraction along a logistic curve, then I'd be inclined to agree. At present, it appears to me that there are two or possibly three theories:

• Hubbert's 1956 theory: oil will peak, but no symmetry properties appear to be given; however, a relatively long decline will be necessary to keep the production curve sufficiently smooth; no rationale for that smoothness is given. (Sorry, that's how I read the article. No offence to Hubbert, who (by science or intuition) did make a number of correct predictions).
• Peak Oil: any number of opinions, everything from a sudden total crash of production to a drawn-out peak that will last decades and then decline as alternatives to oil are used.
• the logistic-curve theory: very specific predictions, a "mathematical model" is claimed that I, personally, have not yet seen (but seem my one-sentence mockup of one above). This seems to be what many Peak Oilers think about ...

I think the three-article version, at least two of the two-article versions, and the one-article version all need to be considered in that case. A one-article/more-than-one-article poll would encourage change from the status quo without deciding on a new guideline.

RandomP 22:07, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

• Probably not We'd just end up with material duplicated between them. In fact, Critique of Hubberts peak theory mostly duplicates content from the main article. What we need is better writing by people who've actually read the references. Working through the derivation would help. Deffeyes' book is more helpful here; Hubbard had to do all this with semilog graph paper, but now we have computers and can crunch directly on the data. --John Nagle 22:24, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

• Disagree. My opinion is that peak oil theory and Hubberts peak theory are synonyms; one of the words give hommage to the person originally behind the theory, whereas the other is closer connected with the theoretical approach of today and the "community". Those articles would heavily reference to one another, and a lot of the paragraphs in this article would be necessairy in both articles. --Jakob mark 15:06, 7 June 2006 (UTC)

• Split into oil crash and (peak oil or Hubbert peak). While it turns out that nothing like a mathematical model appears in Hubbert's papers, I'm in favour of splitting the article: Hubbert's peak theory, while not enough of a theory to provide numerical estimates, does, very generally, predict one or more peaks. There's nothing deep going into that, just that there's a finite amount of oil and oil production cannot jump, at least not for non-political reasons.

By contrast, "peak oil" commonly seems to refer to a classical doomsday theory; not only is the peak near, or here, it will cause the collapse of the world economy, etc. This movement appears to me mostly to be about backing up hundreds of pages of dire predictions with some vague references to Hubbert's paper. The fundamental contradiction involved in invoking a symmetric model to explain drastic changes that would start exactly as the symmetry point is passed doesn't seem to have occured to most people writing in that area.

I suggest the creation of an "oil crash" theory for the doomsdayers to be portrayed neutrally; and a "just the facts" article that details past oil production, and then includes, if possible, something on the following:

• exponential increase of oil production at small times: AFAICS, this is for economic reason.
• exponential decrease of oil production for large times: this seems to be widely accepted in the geological community, though decay rates seem to vary from 2-3% p.a. to 8% p.a.
• the logistic curve as a simple realisation of the previous two, under the additional assumption that the rates be inverse to each other
• symmetry: it comes in automatically for very simple models, but it's not a "prediction" of Hubbert's.

RandomP 00:32, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

• Split Hubert's theory and the theories (or fantasies) of others are not the same thing. Split them and let "peak oil" serve as the disambiguation page.--Jpbrenna 04:30, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Mathematical content of Deffeyes's Beyond Oil

In reference to the above, I'd just like to summarise what Beyond Oil actually has to say about the mathematical model attributed to Hubbert, to save others the trip to the library.

I'll leave out a number of statements along the lines of "Hubbert's technique involved some serious mathematics" (p 35), though I do feel compelled to point out Deffeyes's claim that his derivation "does not cheat, nothing is left out, and it is the full Hubbert methodology" (my emphasis, p 36).

As a reminder, my current knowledge is that in 1956, Hubbert made no specific prediction as to the shape of the oil production curve, though some of the figures in the 1956 paper show a symmetric shape (others do not). Nevertheless, many sources assert that the curves in the 1956 paper are, or are equivalent to, the logistic curve, defined by the differential equation

$P(t)=Q'(t)=Q(t)(1-Q(t))$

after suitably normalising the time and oil scales. Here, and in the following, Q is the cumulative production of oil to a certain point (the unit is barrels of oil), and P is the production of oil at a certain point (a possible unit is barrels of oil per day).

Deffeyes, on contrast, claims that Hubbert did not publish "his reasons for preferring [this formula]" until a 1982 paper, which I'll talk about later. At least one google hit asserts that this is the one and only account of Hubbert's mathematical model, and so far one implication of that appears to be correct in that I haven't found one.

Deffeyes goes on to restate Hubbert's theory as (again, after normalisation):

$P(t)/Q(t)=1-Q(t)$

and illustrates this by charting P/Q as a function of Q (p 37, 38, 43), and asserting that the relation stated above was justified "because it does fit" (p 41) and because it says that "our ability to produce, P, is linearly dependent on the fraction of oil that remains" (p 39).

The rest of the chapter is devoted to applying this "theory" to various empirical data representing

• oil (petroleum?) production in the lower 48 states
• world oil (petroleum?) production
• world oil "discoveries" (reserves + cumulative production)
• world oil field "hits", attributing all oil conjectured in an oil field to the first hit

The first two produce reasonable hits, on his P/Q-versus-Q graphs, for the years starting 1958 and 1983, respectively, with systematic deviation prior to those years.

RandomP 02:16, 9 June 2006 (UTC)

---

Comments: The restatement seems trivial even by high school standards.

I see no argument for considering the function P/Q, the logarithmic derivative of Q; independently of not finding an argument for it, I also cannot think of a reason.

That any equation can be restated, if you so wish, by saying that all points in a given set lie on a line is hardly new or surprising: if f = g, then all the points (f(t), g(t)) will be of the form (x, x).

The use of such P/Q-versus-Q graphs to assert accuracy of Hubbert's prediction troubles me, in that the visual presentation of the empirical data is made to depend on historical data (used to calculate the cumulative production to date) which is then exempted from the requirement of having to actually fit the prediction.

(I have no idea whether the historical data is controversial at all.)

Deffeyes assertion of linear dependence between quantities that I can only read to be identical to those denoted P and 1-Q puzzles me, as it directly contradicts other statements. It is valid as an approximation for Q close to 1, but Q is asserted to have recently been 0.5 and still being extremely close to that value.

Overall, I must sadly conclude Deffeyes's invitation to "join the exclusive club of people who actually understand Hubbert" doesn't appear to have worked for me, and my doubts about the existence of a mathematical model persist.

Everything now seems to depend on Hubbert's 1982 paper, published in the proceedings of a conference held in 1980. The reference is

M. King Hubbert, "Techniques of Predictions as Applied to the Production of Oil and Gas" in S.I. Gass, ed, Oil and Gas Supply Modeling, Special Publication 631 (Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Standards 1982), pp 16—141.

I am attempting to gain access to this paper, but it's a long trip to the nearest library that appears to have it.

Has anyone here looked at this paper?

RandomP 02:16, 9 June 2006 (UTC)

I haven't looked at that paper. Hubbert's math is on pages 9 and 10 of his 1956 paper. A logistic curve means an initial exponential rate of growth. Hubbert provided examples of initial exponential rates of growth in coal and petroleum production. The only constraint on the shape of the production curve is that the area under the curve can not exceed the total recoverable amount. Hubbert did treat oil shale and tar sands separately from crude oil. That made sense because no appreciable production of those resources had begun by 1956. Currently, more than 1 million barrels per day of synthetic oil is produced from tar sands. Since current interest is total production of liquid fossil fuels, it makes sense in the Wikipedia article on peak oil to include unconventional fossil fuel sources of oil. Creating separate articles on peak oil and Hubbert's peak theory has been discussed previously, and consensus on doing that has never been reached. The article can always be fine tuned, and as events unfold may need major revisions, but for the time being, it's ok. Jkintree 13:50, 9 June 2006 (UTC)

I disagree.

The article is not okay: It contains specific statements that are not sourced and contradict available evidence, in some case primary sources.

I've given in and made the trip to the library, and have returned with a copy of the 1982 paper.

For example, Hubbert never predicts a logistic curve: he explains that a logistic curve would do just fine for the qualitative statement he intends to make, and seems to match empirical data.

The statement that the peak would occur when half of the ultimately produceable oil has been produced, too, is something that Hubbert specifically does not make a prediction on in the paper (er, I believe that used to be in the article? it's implicit now, in the "logistic curve" statement).

Hopefully I'll get around to fixing things a bit soon. The executive summary is there is no mathematical model in the strict sense of the term; there is empirical evidence for the logistic curve that needs to be stated; and there's a lot to criticize about Hubbert's approach, so I'll try to find usable sources voicing this criticism, in order to comply with WP:OR.

Note that I'm criticising only a small part of the article's text: that's because it's the most central part, at least from my POV, and needs to be fixed before the rest of the article can even be reviewed properly.

RandomP 16:24, 9 June 2006 (UTC)

I'm a bit confused. You concluded that "there is empirical evidence for the logistic curve that needs to be stated," but you reject stating that Hubbert's theory is based on empirical evidence. In his 1956 paper, Hubbert presented oil production data from Ohio and Illinois to support his theory. It seems to me his theory is based on empirical evidence. Also, you observed yourself that Hubbert's graph that shows global oil production peaking in 2000, the very first graph in the Wikipedia article, is NOT symmetric. But, in the article, you say that Hubbert's curve is symmetric. Jkintree 16:18, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

---

I'll try to clarify: Feel free to ask if something isn't really clear. First off, note that the Hubbert curve is a specific mathematical function that has somehow gotten Hubbert's name attached to it. I'm not saying it's undeserved or anything, just that it can be a bit confusing.

Essentially, the whole of Hubbert's theory is: oil production will initially grow exponentially (he does not give a reason, as far as I can tell); it will eventually decline exponentially (he doesn't give a reason for that either).

That's it.

That's hardly enough to make a prediction, so he makes a leap of faith - something not backed up by data, at least not back in 1956 (and arguably not for the world today): in between the exponential increase and exponential decline, there would be a single peak; after the peak, the rate of decline would be in the same order of magnitude as the increase was initially (6% p.a., very roughly).

I haven't found a single argument for that "leap of faith", and Hubbert himself has made different predictions (for example, the asymmetric curve we had in the article that declined at slower rates).

My main concern is that Hubbert is commonly cited as coming up with a "mathematical theory" that said oil production would follow the logistic curve. As far as I can tell, just not true: he guessed something like that, but there's no mathematical theory to back him up. That doesn't mean he's wrong, it just might mean he's right but doesn't know why.

Why is this important? Today, Hubbert's nonexistent theory is commonly cited as fact, with all sorts of precise predictions that he wouldn't really have made, or couldn't have defended: oil production will peak when half the oil has been consumed, it will go down x% by year y, that sort of thing ...

As far as I can tell, he hasn't even made a convincing argument against "plateau oil", where oil production stays at peak levels for an extended period before suddenly crashing very fast as production methods fail to keep up with the fact that the oil's just (mostly) gone.

Parts of the Ghawar oil field are said to be declining at 8% p.a.; the difference between 8% p.a. and 5.5% p.a. is quite pronounced when compound interest is taken into account.

Hubbert did indeed use the logistic curve to make specific predictions - his argument for that seems, frankly, like handwaving today. It gives you a result, which is probably what he was looking for, and if all the bell curves you know are symmetric, you might be tempted to accept it as gospel.

Just as an aside, there are systematic deviations from Hubbert's model - it would have been very inaccurate, for example, had you applied it to pre-1970 world data.

(Not that Hubbert does not deserve credit: he replaced a much worse misconception by his bell-curve approach; before the 1956 paper was published, it was allegedly common to cite proven reserves over current oil production (yielding a time) and leave it at that because it's "several decades' worth". Hubbert, rightly, pointed out that oil production wouldn't rise until all oil was consumed, then drop to 0 (though he failed to spell out the reason explicitly, which irks me). At least for that, he deserves credit.)

Today, many people appear to be using Hubbert's algorithm to predict both future rates of production and total oil reserves. When you do that, of course, you lose precision: plugging a good guess about actual oil reserves into Hubbert's algorithm should yield results closer to the truth.

If I had more time, I'd be running the number for an 8% p.a. final decline, just to see how much more growth can be expected.

Anyway, sorry if this got a bit long. Would you prefer it if I gave a short account of the changes I intend to make to the article first?

RandomP 16:48, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

Hubbert's 1982 paper

Okay, I've found the paper. I've read it with three questions in mind, and here are, as far as I can tell, Hubbert's answers:

• Symmetry of the production curve: "[The] statement that all of my curves are symmetric is not entirely correct. [...] If such curves [i.e. production curves] are also approximately symmetrical it is only because their data make them so." (p 138, in the transcript of the discussion following Hubbert's talk).
• Peak oil vs "plateau oil": Is there anything in Hubbert's theory which precludes the possibility of a bell curve with a very wide top? I haven't been able to find an argument against it in Hubbert's paper.
• Justification for use of the logistic curve: If dQ/dt is chosen to be a polynomial in Q, the lowest possible degree for this polynomial is 2, resulting in the logistic curve.

So I guess I'm taking out the "mathematical model" claims?

RandomP 05:58, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

2.This depends on the nature of the field.In theory yes.But it might that ,that cind of oil deposits don't exist in nature--Ruber chiken 01:25, 16 June 2006 (UTC) 3.He means that his doing a simplification.Actuly his paper is not very,non-scietist frendly.mathematicly you can put in a constant.That would mean;an expodential growth.Not very likely.The polinomial of second degree means,that he considers,a maximum to be reched,hes taking in too acount that thers a competition,the production becames more dificult over time.This specific curve is symetrical(if you consider the production curve and not the cumulative).For more realistic results you nead to take into acount more parameters,more or less in a semyempirical way,and so use a more complicated right function.The logistic curve apears very often in a great viriety of models ,wher competition of resources ,have to be modeled.Thats why ,it seems like it's maths fall from the sky.--Ruber chiken 01:25, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

---

Frankly, you do not want to hear my personal opinion about where Hubbert took his mathematics from, but it certainly isn't the sky ...

Can you make clearer what you're referring to? I do not know for sure what your "2." and "3." are supposed to mean, as I didn't have a numbered list, and the context seems a bit ambiguous.

I'm also not quite sure what you're trying to say. You've got an opinion of Hubbert's theory, and how it is to be changed to be more realistic. So do I, though my opinion starts with forgetting about it and working out something else from scratch (and, just in case anyone's curious, ends up being something much more like "plateau oil"). Neither of our opinions are noteworthy enough to be included in Wikipedia, according to its policy. We've got to stay with sources, and references, and it seems like Hubbert didn't even say too much about his assumptions in those ....

Also note that we're talking about the applicability of the logistic curve to world oil production. For individual oil fields, it's easier to come up with a theory that matches, bu that's not what the article is about ...

RandomP 01:37, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

in the logistic curve article-in section-The Verhulst equation If you apli it on the oil,you would read that rP is the production ability of the field.r is an empirical constant,P the production,it takes in to acount for example,that you need oil,in order to bild more well.1-P/K,means that thers a maximum,K,if p-->K,then the holle right fonction reches 0.So produntion stops.This peac trys to model,the decreace in productivity of each well.Multiply the 2 and you have the total production rate.This is a simple model,if you whant more acuracy then you have to take more parameters in to acount.A real life model schould use a very ugly right function,derived by semy empirical data,and almost certainly not derivable by hand.--Ruber chiken 02:15, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

"Conventional oil"

Some new figures on "conventional oil" have been added, but the definition of "conventional oil" seems nonstandard. Oil from wells in deep water is considered conventional oil; it doesn't require upgrading. It just comes from a place that's hard to reach, which, in the oil industry, is considered a normal part of life. Oil sands, oil shale, and other "heavy bottoms" that are a notch above asphalt are considered nonconventional oil; they need processing before you even have crude oil. --John Nagle 16:37, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Agreed that definitions of conventional and nonconventional oil are nonstandard, and that it is reasonable to consider deep water oil as conventional oil. The numbers for oil production in 2004, in the article's section on Peak Production, came from the adjoining ASPO graph. I think the ASPO uses those definitions because Hubbert in his 1956 paper did not include deep water oil in his estimates for global oil reserves. Jkintree 16:11, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

Suspicious official estimates

i tranlated from the french wikipedia.It needs a lot of atention for spelling and syntax.--Ruber chiken 20:23, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

Yes, it needs attention. If you clean this up, I'd suggest going back to the French original, which reads better. The data in the table needs sources. Incidentally, the French article for Hubbert's peak has the mathematical derivation worked out. --John Nagle 20:45, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

i didn't clened it because i can't.The table is presumably from "Colin Campbell, SunWorld, 1995".I supoesed that tranlating my English whould be easyear for englich speakers then tranlate it from the french version.--Ruber chiken 21:07, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

"701 billion barrels,from which 317.54 looks suspicious"no it means directly from the table,they all make ther increases simultaneously.--Ruber chiken 21:12, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

I did some cleanup. That data needs work. The table gives values though 2004, but the cited source is dated 1995. So I put on a "Verify" tag; we need a source for it. Inflation of reserve numbers by OPEC countries is well known, but we need to have solid sources for the actual numbers. I removed the "conclusions" after the table, because the translation needed so much work. Someone might want to clean that up off-line and put it back. I'd suggest starting from the French text. --John Nagle 21:13, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

Actually, this all probably belongs in Oil reserves.--John Nagle 00:46, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

The guys in the french section naver complaned,they are the ofichal numbers.If you have doughts go see the contrys web pages.The 1995,i don't no what it stance for,maybee is 2005,the table stops at 2004,i will ask.Solid sources are imposible to gate,since the contrys don't late you investigate for obvious resons.--Ruber chiken 23:30, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

there some specific sources at the end of the article--Ruber chiken 00:13, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

I'd like to ask that Ruber chiken (talk · contribs) stop making edits for a day or so. The article is now barely readable and will require considerable work by others to repair. This user has made 17 edits today, and almost all of them contain errors in spelling and grammar, errors this user seems to expect that others will fix. That can be done, but it takes time. Thanks. --John Nagle 00:41, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

1. i added the fraze about oil per capita peaked in the 70's,it didn't existed before and i didn't finde it any where.despite poor spelling the reeder gate more educated.
2. The section on oficial estimates didn't exited ither,i didn't finded any wher.if it did belong to the reservers article then a copy-paste will do.and again despite poor spelling the reder is more educated than with out it.And it has a tag on it.And it's no crap.
3. The references i added are whel separed from the authers because they wher too many,and probably are redondant and i didn't whant to mess it,so put them separetly for comparisson when i'll have time

The article is now barely readable and will require considerable work by others to repairThe entire article is barely redable????Considerable work????It's just one section,the official estimates!!!!!Repair the article???is just on section that didn't existed before,it's not a repair,it wasn't there before,so it's not a reper.17 edits????If you see more clausly most of it is in the same section,and each of it is very small in size.You presenting me,like if i destroid with my edit the hole article,what is this overexageration?????If this where thrue why you didn't just reverted????one last thing,is not almost all my edits have spelling problems,all of my edits have spelling problems--Ruber chiken 05:36, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

Perhaps you should edit the French Wikipedia instead, then. We can get others to do translations if needed. Thanks. --John Nagle 16:49, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

moved to oil reservers,hapy now?Whats more important spelling or content?--Ruber chiken 18:03, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

Removing statement

I'm removing the following from the opening paragraph

Also, because of population growth, the rate of oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.

Brief reasoning, in the hope to prevent it being readded right away:

• it's unsourced
• it's ambiguous (was this a local "peak", or a global (think "forever") peak as the context seems to suggest)
• in the latter meaning, it's untrue: world oil production per capita is quite a bit higher now than it was in the 1970s, by my back-of-the-envelope calculation
• "because of population growth" seems odd. was population growth a new thing in the 1970s? World population has population growth at about 2% p.a. for the 70s, and oil production probably did keep up with that to the first oil crisis).

The statement needs a source, and someone needs to explain the discrepancy in data if it does turn out to be true.

RandomP 18:17, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

World average oil production per capita (ô) grew exponentially from 1920 to 1973. (2) Next, the average growth rate was near zero from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979. (3) Then from its peak in 1979 to 1999, ô decreased strongly by an average of 1.20 %/year.[10]--Ruber chiken 18:56, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

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Thanks. My brain somehow turned "1970s" into 1970, when per capita oil production was below current levels.

It's correct that per capita oil production was something like 10% higher when the first oil crisis hit than it is today, from what I can tell.

I would much prefer a curve to a statement, and I don't think the opening paragraph's the perfect place.

RandomP 19:21, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

It would be nice to hilat that this whent unotist because of the world inequalities(third world).My intention in to puting it in the opening ,was in order to be read by more peopol,many don't read the entire article,and i'm suposing that the opening is read more aften.--Ruber chiken 19:44, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

I found a figure illustrating that point on [11], figures 2, 3 and 4, but personally I don't like the figures with too many pictures, and I'm not crazy about the Olduvai theory (nor dieoff.orf) either. Besides, the reference to the BP report no longer seems to be working. But the fact about the per capita oil/energy consumption peak in 1979 is trivial. I think the best way to go around this would be to collect data for population size and oil production seperately and make a graph from this. --Jakob mark 21:58, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

Yes this figures are not exacly,secret of defence.The link is just for reference.We can't just copy it,for copyrght isue,besides it's poor quality pictuers.But the discussion is wher to put this information.The per capita oil pruduction is what it realy maters anyway.If you consider the growth of china and india,it's important.So not only the developed world complitly looted the place,but on tup the undermind the development of third world.--Ruber chiken 04:17, 13 June 2006 (UTC)

Can we not make our own graph? I'm pretty sure that oil production per year is pretty well agreed upon, (it's the reserves that everybody is disagreeing about), and population is not in dispute. Doesn't seem that hard to make a graph like the one on dieoff.org. (I would do it, but not right now, maybe in a week or so.) --Rajah 05:03, 13 June 2006 (UTC)

yes,it's what i sujested.If you whant to do it declare it openly,to avoid multiple work.--Ruber chiken 05:26, 13 June 2006 (UTC)

Not every curve Hubbert drew is a Hubbert curve

The Hubbert curve, according to that article, is a specific curve (or a family of similar curves), that given by the equation described there.

Hubbert, at various points, suggested different curves, never quite settling down on the Hubbert curve until that not-very-convincing 1982 paper.

I'd be okay with removing all reference to the Hubbert curve, but at this point, calling anything that is not a Hubbert curve one is likely to cause significant confusion.

So I'm reverting back, but feel free to come up with a better description.

RandomP 11:20, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

It is a hubert curve.The logistic curve arizes,naturally when thers a competition in resources.So acording what gess you do for right side of the equation(logical gesses according to the system you are studying).You get diferent curvers.And in the field of geology,it's colde a hubert curve.don't revert is corecte.--Ruber chiken 01:07, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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Again, there appear to be two different terminologies around.

Terminology 1: a "Hubbert curve" is a (vaguely bell-shaped?) (smooth?) (continuous?) (symmetric?) (exponentially growing for early times?) (exponentially decaying for late times?) curve showing oil production over time.

Terminology 2: a "Hubbert curve" is the derivative of a logistic curve with the unit of barrels of oil / year (or similar).

For better of for worse, we currently use Terminology 2. I'm perfectly happy with moving to the other terminology, personally, but I believe this is impossible because you can probably find any number of authors with a precise opinion of how all the parenthesised questions should be answered, and no majority among them for any one choice.

So I think what we really have here is a situation where there is no majority for any terminology, and looking at the plurality is misleading because some terminologies might be stricter than others ...

In short, I'm going by "if you don't know what to do, stay with the status quo", and that seems to be terminology 2. If that's absolutely unacceptable to someone, I could also remove references to the term entirely?

RandomP 01:26, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Both are same thing.Acording with what asumsions you make,you can gate any thing from an expodential(not physics) to a bell like curve(depending on the parameters of the field).Aplicated too geophysics of oil,they are colde hubert curves.--Ruber chiken 01:59, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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I am not at all sure what you're saying here. Clearly, the two terminologies are not in any way "the same thing".

If you have a suggestion about which terminology Wikipedia should use, I suggest taking it up at Hubbert curve. That article states quite clearly the convention that is in force now, and I will abide by the convention of using a term for the article with the same name when I can do so.

RandomP 02:27, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

2 explain 1.2 is math,1 is talking.The tow are the same ,said in a diferent maner."tow" and "2",i seed the same thing in a difernt maner.--Ruber chiken 02:39, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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No, they're not. The first refers to a curve that has whatever properties you want to claim Hubbert predicted. The second refers to the actual data. If and only if the non-existent mathematical model attributed to Hubbert is precisely correct (and it's not! we know that, looking at the data so far!) are the two equivalent.

Some people claim Hubbert predicted the derivative of a logistic curve; they are wrong. However, they do seem to have named the derivative of the logistic curve after him, and if you want to dispute that name, edit Hubbert curve first.

Remember that the specific reason I started this section was that someone wanted to apply the term "Hubbert curve" to a curve that was not symmetrical; I don't have a problem with that, in theory, but only if we change that article first. And yes, I might have a problem with changing that article, if and when someone actually does.

RandomP 02:59, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Because,thers not just one,logistic curves,but many.logistic curves are a familly of curvers.So they have a varyety of properties.Thers not one curve for oil,thers one curve for each field.It's like polinomials ,thers infinit.--Ruber chiken 03:09, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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And all of them are symmetric. The curve I removed the designation from wasn't.

RandomP 03:12, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

ofcaurse not,it ,depends on the field.In general ,if it's too stif,it tend to be centerd,if it's too fluent it tends to be moved to the right(natural gas).For detail,it depend on the fieldn geology and composition of the oil.The very simple model is symetrical--Ruber chiken 03:26, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

A logistic function is defined by the mathematical formula:

$P(t)=a{\frac {1+me^{-t/\tau }}{1+ne^{-t/\tau }}}\!$

as i said,huberts paper,make,no concessions to the no iniciated.--Ruber chiken 03:40, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

i reverte it.You asumed that it have too be symetric,you quoted hubert him self,that his curvers wheren't symetrical--Ruber chiken 04:41, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

in the hubert curve article it says An example of a Hubbert curve is:.--Ruber chiken 04:43, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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It also says, quite clearly:

The Hubbert curve, named after the geophysicist M. King Hubbert, is the derivative of the logistic function.

Please fix the Hubbert curve article before describing as a Hubbert curve something that is plainly not.

If you don't want to do that, I'm available for mediation, though I do not really see why it is necessary: all I did was replace a claim that is inconsistent with one that is not. If and when the old claim can be made consistent, it can be put back.

Please do not revert this further. See WP:DR for other options you have at this point. RandomP 12:03, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

I don't understand,Hubert curve IS the derivative of a logistic curve.But saying that is aplied in geophysics is superflues,logistic curvers are used in a very big number of diferent disiplines.I begining to lose patients.I styl don't understand what the problem is.I don't see where the contradiction is?It sais the logistic function,not the examples function.--Ruber chiken 17:12, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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The curve in the picture is not a Hubbert curve. It's not the derivative of a logistic curve. It doesn't have a "peak" point about which it is symmetric. It's not what the article linked to in the caption I replaced said it was.

The statement is less of a problem. It just doesn't match the image.

Is that clearer? Sorry, I totally missed that that might be the problem!

RandomP 17:18, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

How can you tel that is not the derivative of a logistic curve?You quoted hubbert,that the curvers are not symetric.And the derivatives of logistic curvers are not symetric in general.Stop complaining about the symetry.--Ruber chiken 17:47, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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I can tell that it is not the derivative of a logistic curve because the derivatives of logistic curves are symmetric.

I did not quote Hubbert saying that the derivatives of logistic curves need not be symmetric.

Yes, the derivatives of logistic curves are symmetric.

RandomP 18:07, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Logistic distribution.And now put it back.--Ruber chiken 18:30, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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Whoa, careful there! The logistic distribution (at least the one the article is about) is not the logistic curve!

RandomP 18:59, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

the logistic distribution,is an aplication of the logistic curve.See carefuly the graphs,and maths,it's the same functions.That it represent probability,there is just the aplication of that field.--Ruber chiken 19:04, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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No. They are not the same functions. The logistic function is symmetric; from the image in the article (which seems .. odd) the logistic distribution density function appears not to be.

Regardless of what turns out to be the deal with that image, we should certainly be able to agree on the fact that the function P satisfying the differential equation

$P'(t)=rP(t)(K-P(t))$

is "symmetric" in the sense that its derivative is symmetric around that t for which P(t) = K/2.

Can't we?

RandomP 19:31, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

THE GRAPH IN THE LOGISTIC FUNCTION ARTICLE IS AN EXAMPLE.OOOOOOO ITS OOODDDD THAT THE LOGISTIC DISTRIBUTION ARE NOT SYMETRIC.tHE GUY HOW PUT THE GRAPH IN THE LOGISTIC FUNCTION ARTICLE SIMPLY PUT THE SIMPLEST CASE.aGAIN FUNCTION P IN THAT EQUATION IS JUST THE SIMPLEST EXAMPEL.THE EQUATION YOU GAVE IS JUST THE SIMPLEST EXAMPLE.HUBERT GAVE THE SIMPLEST OF EXAMPLES,EXAMPLES HAVE TO BE SIMPLE IN ORDER TO EXPLAIN.I M RELLY PIST OF ,YOU DON'T READ THE ARTICLES CORECTLY,AND DON'T HAVE THE COMPETENCE TO UNDERSTAND THEM.I REVERTING IT,IF YOU DERRE REVERTING BACK,I WILL REVERT IT AGAIN AND AGAIN,I M NOT EXPLAINING ANY THING ELSE.THE ARTICLES ARE COMPLITE AND WELL SOURCED,IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THEM,THAT DON'T MEAN THAT THEY ARE BADLY REFERENCED OR BADLY RETEN.HAVE A LOOK IN THE QUANTUM PHYSICS SECTION.I'M NOT REPLYING YOU.YOU ARE A DICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!--Ruber chiken 20:02, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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So what, pray tell, is a logistic curve? If I am, as you appear to say I am, dense enough not to know a different definition from that I gave above (which coincides, at least, with the one used by mathworld), then at least enlighten me and give me the definition.

I'm not aware of any definition of logistic curve that would result in the image we're talking about, which is widely assumed to have been drawn by hand, before Hubbert had even decided that it should be a logistic curve.

RandomP 20:38, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

EIA quote: removed

I've removed the following paragraph:

According to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy, international reserve "estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels. [emphasis added]" (Annual Energy Outlook 1998 With Projections to 2020[12]).

as the source does not support use in the quoted sentence as done here. The actual quote is "These adjustments to the USGS and MMS estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels".

I also do not see how the source supports the use of the term "international reserve[s]". As far as I'm aware, the USGS and the MMS concern themselves exclusively with resources under US control. Note that even if this second remark is addressed, the first problem still stands, and needs to be addressed before reinsertion.

RandomP 23:33, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

cut too short don't understand--Ruber chiken 01:01, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Is that better? Sorry, I should have included the whole sentence from the beginning.

RandomP 01:26, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

EROEI section

I'm removing the section on "energy returned on energy invested"; it is something neither the rest of the article nor, as far as I can tell, Hubbert's peak theory use in any way whatsoever: in fact, the central claim of Deffeyes's book, for example, is that oil production does not depend on such trivialities as the oil price or, I assume, EROEI.

The section was:

==Energy return on investment==

When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Investment (EROI or EROEI).

Since, for economic reasons, the cheapest and easiest to extract sources of energy are used first, the EROI decreases over time. Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel used in the recovery process. (Note: a chart would be helpful here.)

While any source of energy with an EROI near or below 1.0 would seem futile to exploit, there are special situations when this is not the case. Availability of cheap, but hard to transport, natural gas in some oil fields has led to using natural gas to fuel steam injection into oil fields. Similarly, natural gas in huge amounts is used to power most Athabasca Oil Sands plants. Cheap natural gas has also led to Ethanol fuel produced with a net EROI of less than 1, although figures in this area are controversial.

RandomP 23:43, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

The peack oil problem is production of oil for energy.A EROEI below 1 is pointless to exploite.Thats why price don't mater,price can go as hi as he whant,but when you have a EROEI below 1 you consume energy.In the begining EROEI is hi,so production is easy,but you have to bild the whells,then when EROEI aproches 1,the production per well slows down more rapidly then the wells that you can add.So in betwin,you have a peak.So yes he used it.Put it back.--Ruber chiken 00:33, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

"He used it"? Who? Do you have a source?

As I said before, the rest of the article doesn't reference this, and this doesn't pertain to the rest of the article, so I still don't see why it should be in there. Certainly not as one of the first sections.

Feel free to convince me otherwise, of course!

RandomP 01:14, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

it's a natural recuarment for all models,to put a maximum limit.Plus in more adavanced modeling it is recuard to understand how this factor will afect the production--Ruber chiken 01:52, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

it's for determing the carying capasity.Understand put it back--Ruber chiken 00:54, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

That sounds like it should belong in Malthusian catastrophe?

RandomP 01:14, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

don't revert.It's for determing the maximum of the curv.Whith out it,you have to put an arbitrary constant.If you put zero,then the model gives you an expanecial.Good for maths but not in physics.--Ruber chiken 01:49, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

What you have provided is your personal reason for using EROEI to get an oil production curve that you think will actually be 0 at some point.

That might be interesting to know, and if you write a book about it which gets widely published it will be notable, and might get included into Wikipedia, if probably not this page.

At present, the article does not rely on EROEI, does not use or cite the concept, the section itself seems to be leaving out how it is actually relevant to the article, and frankly I do not see anything it has to add to the article.

Regardless of whether this will ultimately stay in or not, I'll move it down below sections that clearly and directly deal with the subject of the article.

I'm giving you time to edit the article so the EROEI section becomes part of it. Feel free to move it again if you think the location is inappropriate.

RandomP 02:13, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

This is no POV,and i don't need sources.It's math,pure and simple.The Hubert model whant you to produce energy,so only the oil with EROEI more then 1 can be taken in to acount.The rest is presumed inreachable.If you what to produce oil ,as a commodity,and not energy,then this is taken in too acount only for finacial isues.Simple every barel of oil must reproduce it's self.Only 30%(more or less) of oil,that is under the ground,has a EROEI greater then one.ther are fields with only 3% rechabal,and others with something like 70%.It depends on many parameters,that have to be fead in the right side of the equation.In what maner?This is a holle science on it's on.A real life hubert curve looks ugly.In the example a gave you it calculates the parameter K.--Ruber chiken 02:33, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

is for calculating ${Q_{\infty }}$ --Ruber chiken 02:44, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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"I don't need sources" might not be the greatest statement to make in a dispute.

It's very simple, as far as I can see: The rest of the article doesn't talk about EROEI, and the EROEI doesn't really seem to talk about the rest of the article.

Regardless of whether the whole section should go, do you mind if I remove the following?

Since, for economic reasons, the cheapest and easiest to extract sources of energy are used first, the EROI decreases over time.

It's unsourced, it assumes no technological progress, and it assumes that all expense that goes into producing energy is energy. That it's impossible that there are, say, deposits that require little energy but a lot of labour to extract needs to be sourced, and I'm doubting it.

RandomP 02:52, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Don't tuch it.Yes,the hubert curv makes a prediction, asuming that no new technology has any significant impact in the production.And yes ,the model asumes ,only energy costs.For your example,simple, the model will asume that a hi percentage of oil,in the grond can be extracted.--Ruber chiken 03:04, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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Here, I'm not talking about any model, and I'm not talking about any Hubbert curve, however it's defined. I'm talking about a specific statement the article makes:

Since, for economic reasons, the cheapest and easiest to extract sources of energy are used first, the EROI decreases over time.

I'm doubting it. It's unsourced. As I tried to explain above, it's not obviously true. So out it goes, unless it can be fixed or sourced.

RandomP 03:07, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

presiuer in the field decline over time,as is been emtied,so first it goes out by it's one,then,you have to pump,then you thro in stem,water,detergents;and watevers,in order to flow more fluently or to preserve presior,on top of that ,the water concentration encreases,more and more.In the and you close the well,you pump too much water,or burning too much oil for the steam,you put in.Happy now.What was now the reason you whant to deleat the section.--Ruber chiken 03:21, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Whait a minite,have you even tryed,too verify it.Or your puting all the pressiur on me?--Ruber chiken 03:57, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

big EROI means thats is extracted easyly,probably,you don't even need to pump.--Ruber chiken 04:05, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

in the EROEI article,ther are external links.I am not in the mood to surch something that i alredy now.Just surch it your self and tell if it's ok.If you don't find it there,go on google.if again you don't find any thig,don(t tuch,com on the talk page.The intro of hubert theory needs,some rerighting,then EROEI,will fit perfectly,but i'm not in the mood right now.Like i said hubert don't makes any compromises with his readers,it asumes some nogleges.--Ruber chiken 05:01, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

heres good source

• Wayback Archive of OilAnalytics.org "EROI as a Measure of Energy Availability"

This edit warring has to stop

In hopes of making this a good article again, I've asked for Wikipedia mediation: Wikipedia:Mediation Cabal/Cases/2006-06-16 Hubbert Peak Theory. This edit warring has to stop. --John Nagle 20:03, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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I agree the edit war has to stop, and would like to offer my apologies for this revert. I was, at the time, of the honest opinion that ruber chiken had merely missed my point about why the Hubbert curve link is inappropriate.

The article has not, since I have first seen it, ever been a good article: it contained statements that turned out not to be supported by the references that they were attributed to.

I spotted that, ultimately, by accident.

You might have missed that I offered ruber chiken to move this to mediation quite a while ago, before the rather protracted discussion-come-shouting-match really took off. As he never replied, and as this seems to suggest, I rather doubt he's open to that process.

I'm not sure whether there was anything you wanted to discuss with the help of a mediator, but as we've had no recent discussions, I did not have the impression that that would be required.

The article, as it now stands, is simply not good. A curve that is plainly nothing to do with the logistic curve is described as a "Hubbert curve", with a link to an article that gives a definition it just doesn't satisfy; a reference to a thorough debunking of the way some oil crashers/peak oilers have abused Hubbert's theory is described as "[arguing] that the Hubbert curve with a sharp peak is inapplicable globally due to the differences in oil reserves, political and military leverage, demand, and trade partnerships between countries and regions".

I see no alternative to significant edits if the good article tag is ever to be restored.

Apologies, again, for that hasty revert. However, as the article is currently in an inacceptable state, I must admit that rewording that image caption is still high on my priority list, and I will do so if ruber chiken does not return.

RandomP 21:00, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

I just want to quiet things down to the point that we can make progress. I felt this needed a neutral party who hasn't edited the article to resolve. Hence the request for mediation. Maybe it will help. --John Nagle 21:11, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

Cool. That's definitely something I can agree with. Regrettable though the incorrect state of the article might be, it's been in that state for a long time, and I'm happy to leave it like that for a (work) day or two until mediation has either begun or failed to begin.

RandomP 21:16, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

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Has anyone considered these:

"... ...most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. — rely on sophisticated technology.

Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered, extracted, and transported using oil-powered machinery... ...

In short, the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world." From: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Someone try to mention (prove/debunk) this in the article please.

203.117.33.24 09:02, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

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