Talk:Economic forecasting

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Dr. Favero's comment on this article

Dr. Favero has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

The article lacks completely a historical section.

Given the long history of forecasting in the 20th century, this is a major absence. For a short summary about international (mostly US) forecasting in 1910-32 see my paper ssrn.com/abstract=1016001 - and the references to Armatte, Deblock and Friedman

On the US there is the wonderful book by Walter Friedman, Fortune Tellers: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10057.html

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Dr. Favero has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:

• Reference : Giovanni Favero, 2007. "Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers," Working Papers 2007_14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 00:27, 26 May 2015 (UTC)

Dr. Allen's comment on this article

Dr. Allen has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

I thought this piece required a great deal more on the econometrics of forecasting, particularly time series econometrics. See for example, the discussion of general forecasting issues in D.F. Hendry and G.H. Mizon (2014) Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting, Journal of Econometrics, 82, 1, 186-195.

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Dr. Allen has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:

• Reference : Chang, C-L. & Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2013. "Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 06:22, 9 July 2015 (UTC)

Dr. Koop's comment on this article

Dr. Koop has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

This is a tough topic to do as it is really too broad to offer a decent coverage in a short article. It would probably be better to focus on particular sub-topics (e.g. Macroeconomic Forecasting (with time series data), Microeconomic Data (with cross-sectional/panel data) and Financial Forecasting) rather than jam them all into one Economic Forecasting article. I note that most of this article (e.g. all of the things listed in the List of Regularly Published...) is about macroeconomics. But there are little bits and pieces here and there about micro and financial topics, so it becomes a bit confusing at times.

This article is okay, but I would take issue a bit with some of the discussion in the methods and issues sections. The list of methods is "Methods of forecasting include Econometric models, Economic base analysis, Shift-share analysis, Input-output model and the Grinold and Kroner Model". This includes incredibly general catch-all phrases ("econometric methods" includes thousands of different things), to obscure old fashioned things that I have not seen anyone using ("economic base analysis") to obscure individual articles that are not widely used ("Grinold and Kroner" model).

I also note that some interesting macroeconomic forecasts are presented based on financial markets (e.g. use of oil futures as forecasts of oil price) and betting odds. These are not mentioned.

And, if you are going to get into input/output tables, then you should really talk about computational general equilibrium models (which are similar, but much more widely used for forecasting) or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (which are one of the main tools for forecasting used by central banks).

As for forecast accuracy, instead of describing a few facts of relevance to one particular macroeconomic historical incident, it might have been better to describe relevant issues. For instance, in the last decade there has been loads of work in academia and policy circles using predictive densities (i.e. not just point forecasts, but entire probability density functions to provide an idea of the uncertainty about forecasts) and formal methods for evaluating how the quality of forecasts.

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Dr. Koop has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:

• Reference : Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

ExpertIdeas (talk) 11:36, 18 July 2015 (UTC)

Dr. Gogas's comment on this article

Dr. Gogas has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

The initial statement about economic forecasting is misleading “Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy”. Economic forecasting refers to forecasting the evolution of macroeconomic variables and perhaps of the economy as a whole, but its main mandate as a research field is not to forecast the future state of the economy. Moreover macroeconomic and microeconomic projections are not different levels of aggregation but rather different research fields. Overall, the article is limited to a very narrow view of economic forecasting focusing only of international organizations and surveys. In principle it lacks all the innovations of the last 20 years in econometric forecasting models (for more details see the paper by Stock and Watson (2008) or the survey by Giacomini (2014)) and extensions of other research fields to economic forecasting.

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Dr. Gogas has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:

• Reference : Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2014. "Forecasting Bank Credit Ratings," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 9-2014, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

ExpertIdeas (talk) 02:28, 4 September 2015 (UTC)

Dr. Price's comment on this article

Dr. Price has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

The production of economic forecasts is a well developed field. Types of forecast divide broadly into those designed primarily to provide accurate forecasts and those (particularly by central banks and policymaking organisations) which additionally aim to provide a narrative to guide policy. But within this there are many variants and methods. This article is entirely inadequate, which is a great shame, as a decent Wikipedia article would be immensely useful.

The main forecasting article is somewhat better but nevertheless deficient.

The topics that are missing are to numerous to list comprehensively. They include

Univariate versus multivariate. Structural versus statistical models. Conditional versus unconditional forecasts. Parsimony. Nowcasting. Real-time data. Data-rich methods and shrinkage. Forecast evaluation (loss functions: point versus density methods). Point versus density forecasts. Forecast combination.

Some of these topics are covered in Frank Diebold's creative commons textbook.

http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/Teaching221/Forecasting.pdf .

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Dr. Price has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:

• Reference 1: Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forecasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," Working Papers 691, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

• Reference 2: Eklund, Jana & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2010. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Bank of England working papers 406, Bank of England.

• Reference 3: George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, 2006. "Forecasting Using Predictive Likelihood Model Averaging," Working Papers 567, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

• Reference 4: N. Fawcett & G. Kapetanios & J. Mitchell & S. Price, 2014. "Generalised Density Forecast Combinations," CAMA Working Papers 2014-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 18:16, 27 June 2016 (UTC)

Dr. Papadimitriou's comment on this article

Dr. Papadimitriou has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

My comments

- "Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy" -> Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about Economic phenomena.

- "Methods of forecasting include Econometric models, Economic base analysis, Shift-share analysis, Input-output model and the Grinold and Kroner Model." -> You can include Machine Learning. A lot of work has been done in financial forecasting and macroeconomics.

We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.

We believe Dr. Papadimitriou has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:

• Reference : Gogas, Periklis & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Agrapetidou, Anna, 2014. "Forecasting Bank Credit Ratings," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 9-2014, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 16:29, 11 July 2016 (UTC)

Dr. Timmermann's comment on this article

Dr. Timmermann has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

Important developments in economic forecasting from new methods for selecting and estimating forecasting models (dynamic factor models, Lasso, information criteria, bagging, etc.) to accounting for model uncertainty (Bayesian model averaging, optimal weighting of Geweke and Amisano Journal of Econometrics, 2011), to forecast evaluation under arbitrary loss functions (Diebold-Mariano, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 2005) and recursively updated parameter estimates (West, 1996, Econometrica, McCracken, Journal of Econometrics 2007) ought to be covered in the article..Also, new ways of reporting and evaluating probability and interval forecasts should be covered (e.g., the Bank of England's fan chart).

We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.

We believe Dr. Timmermann has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:

• Reference 1: Genre, Veronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2010. "Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?," Working Paper Series 1277, European Central Bank.

• Reference 2: Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

• Reference 3: M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Variable Selection, Estimation and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," DNB Working Papers 250, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 16:08, 12 July 2016 (UTC)

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