SciCast
SciCast is a collaborative platform for science and technology forecasting created by George Mason University with the help of a grant from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as part of its ForeST (Forecasting in Science and Technology) program.[1][2][3] SciCast is currently (January 2016) on hiatus, after losing its main IARPA funding.[4] It was expected to re-open in the fall of 2015 with the support of a major Science & Technology sponsor, but this had not occurred by January 2016.
History[edit]
SciCast was an outgrowth of an earlier project called DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Elicitation and Aggregation), also an IARPA project that implemented GMU economist Robin Hanson's idea of combinatorial prediction tech markets, and was a participant in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation tournament.[5][6]
The launch of SciCast itself was announced by Robin Hanson on January 3, 2014,[5] and the official announcements were made on January 10, 2014.[2] The launch received some news coverage in March 2014.[1][7]
Reception[edit]
SciCast has been covered in The Chicago Tribune repeatedly.[1][8]
The launch of SciCast was picked up by many blogs and websites of data analysis and technology trends.[9][10][11] SciCast's crowdsourced search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 airliner attracted the attention of some analysts.[12]
See also[edit]
- Aggregative Contingent Estimation
- Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
- The Good Judgment Project
References[edit]
- ^ a b c Jury, Jessie (December 16, 2013). "SciCast Launch! Crowdsourced Forecasting Project from George Mason University". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ a b "SciCast Crowdsources Forecasts on Science and Technology Events and Innovations". George Mason University Newsdesk. January 10, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!". The Official SciCast Blog. June 8, 2015. Retrieved July 12, 2015.
- ^ a b Hanson, Robin (January 3, 2014). "Announcing: SciCast". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Hanson, Robin (August 31, 2011). "Join The DAGGRE Team". Overcoming Bias. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Roderick, Jennifer (March 30, 2014). "SciCast - Predict Tomorrow, Today. The Center for Science, Technology, and Security Policy (CSTSP) is working with a research group at George Mason University on a project – SciCast - to develop an online crowd-sourcing tool that can help predict future innovations in science and technology". American Association for the Advancement of Science. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Jury, Jessie (April 29, 2014). "SciCast College Bowl Kicks off Today, April 29". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Piatetsky, Gregory (January 16, 2014). "SciCast: a Crowdsourced Forecasting Platform for Science and Technology". KD Nuggets. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Ed (January 22, 2014). "SciCast: Toward a better model for prediction". Security Curve. Archived from the original on January 29, 2014. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Lozada, John (February 6, 2014). "Robin Hanson – SciCast, Prediction Markets & Future Day". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
- ^ Piatetsky, Gregory (March 15, 2014). "SciCast Crowdsourcing search for Malaysian Air Flight MH370". Retrieved May 6, 2014.
