File:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.jpg

Summary[edit]

The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach four trillion dollars by 2020. source data: IPCC. Some of the increase is due to greater exposure such as building on the coast.

Note that the underlying cause (excess heat trapped in atmosphere by greenhouse gases) more closely fits a sigmoid curve. The logistic function or its functional neighbors (e.g., the Gompertz function) might produce a better extrapolation.

Script to create[edit]

Application and source code[edit]

R : Copyright 2005, The R Foundation for Statistical Computing Version 2.2.0 2005-10-06....

decade <- c(1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990)

billions <- c(3.5, 5, 7.5, 13, 40)

# from http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/08.17.jpg

new <- data.frame(decade = seq(1950, 2050, 1)) # for graph

lb <- log(billions) # enter log domain for nonnegative data

pm <- lm(lb ~ poly(decade, 2))

summary(pm)

"... on 2 degrees of freedom, adjusted R-squared: 0.9839, p-value: 0.00804"

clim <- predict(pm, new, interval = "confidence") # calculate confidence intervals

eclim <- exp(clim) # exit log domain

matplot(new$decade, eclim, lty = c(1, 3, 3), col = c("black", "brown", "brown"), type = "l", ylab = "billions", ylim=c(0,4000), xlab = "decade", xlim=c(1950,2020), main="average yearly inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar

cost of extreme weather events worldwide")

Thanks[edit]

Thanks to Marc Schwartz for the R commands to create graphs with confidence intervals.

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby release it into the public domain. This applies worldwide. If this is not legally possible: I grant any entity the right to use this work for any purpose, without any conditions, unless such conditions are required by law. PD Public domain false false

This file is a candidate to be copied to Wikimedia Commons. Any user may perform this transfer; refer to Wikipedia:Moving files to Commons for details. If this file has problems with attribution, copyright, or is otherwise ineligible for Commons, then remove this tag and DO NOT transfer it; repeat violators may be blocked from editing. Other Instructions Endorse this file for transfer by adding |human=<your username> to this Template. If this file is freely licensed, but otherwise unsuitable for Commons (e.g. out of Commons' scope, still copyrighted in the US), then replace this Template with {{Do not move to Commons|reason=<Why it can't be moved>}} If you think that a local copy of this file should be retained, then replace this Template with {{Keep local|reason=<Why a local copy is needed>}} Please ensure that the file has a properly descriptive and unambiguous name before transferring; see Wikipedia:File mover#What files should be renamed? for details.

This file was suggested for transfer by a bot (User:Fbot). Please verify that this file is suitable for Commons before transferring it.